What welfare cuts do you think Sunak is about to announce in budget?

[caringcarer]

It's been reported that Richi Sunak said there will be tax cuts in the budget before the election and then more after the election so people who work hard will gain more and the government will curb spending on welfare. So, what welfare cuts do you think he is planning? I wonder whether he will reduce the triple lock on pensions to a double lock. Will he make single parents with DC over 7 work more hours to get UC top up. So maybe make them work 20 or even 25 hours. Do you think the £300 CoL payments will stop, as inflation is now much lower? I'm not advocating for these cuts just curious to what they could be. Can anyone think of others they might implement? Also which tax cuts could he be thinking of introducing? Threshold going up from £12,500 to £13k or inheritance tax go up a bit?

I thonk they will make PIP and DLA means tested as 'the public' misunderstand the purpose of these benefits.

My suspicion is they'll be going after anything that affects larger families or people with disabilities.

If he touches benefits then that's the tories well and truly over

Benefits are not this fortune people believe

They are a bit obsessed with the number of people out of work on long term sick, so I’d imagine it’ll be sickness benefits. I’d imagine it’ll be inheritance tax cuts.

Not sure this is going to be the great look he thinks it is. Especially once people realise that the NI cut is going to make very little impact unless they are high earners.

This is a big worry for me as I am unable to work due to disability and rely on pip/esa/uc. If feels like this government are constantly bringing this up and 'threatening ' us because most of us can't do anything about our situations.
He did say on Laura Kuenssberg this morning something along the lines of 'new applicants' which made me think that esa/pip/dla criteria may be changed and then as those currently already claiming get to reassessment they'll assess on the new system (I could be very wrong but felt it was a disability/get back to work thing).
I don't think he'll change the pension (he'd loose to many voters). Yes to stopping col payments (which should have never been needed if they payed reasonable benefits).
Tax benefits (like the ni changes) will be done to help the higher earners (not mid /lower earners).

The worry for present government seems to be number on ESA or UC in Support Group or with Limited Capability for Work Related Activity. They say this shows the system isn't working.

In order to understand that we need to know why there are so many people in those groups now and why. Some, maybe many, are folks waiting for surgery or other treatment. Others may be because the system actually works better, following court cases etc, for people with mental health problems.

The Tories are talking about people being 'signed off' as though all you need for benefits is a 'sick note'.

That's a lie.

Thankfully that's not going to happen

It LCRWA that is going to be assessed differently not pip or dla.

Good point @Richardbluebauble. I must say I didn't hear the interview I just saw an article in a newspaper. PIP is already notoriously hard to get. I don't see how they can make that any harder. Maybe no longer accept the low capacity for work unless UC applicant gets higher level PIP do you think? Could they make it a condition to claiming the LC allowance? I think they have already said about single parents having to do more hours for UC top up. The thing is I heard Starmer saying Labour might not raise basic allowance before paying tax either. It seems to have even on £12500 for years and years. I think it is currently set not to move until 2028-29. In the meanwhile dragging virtually everyone into paying tax. Personally I've been thinking he could remove one aspect of triple lock without it making much difference to pensioners, if he removed the 2.5 percent increase. If he kept the inflation rate and average earnings I don't think pensioners would lose out. It's a worry wondering what new hell he'll come up with next either way.

I did wonder that but the purpose of this benefit is surely to compensate a disabled person for additional expenses they experience. Eg if you have mobility issues and can't do your own cleaning and keep the garden up you might need to pay to get it done. Also I've heard it said many times it actually costs more in admin to mean test PIP than to just pay it to all who meet criterion especially as hard to get without masses of evidence anyway.

I don't think they'll touch the triple lock on pensions because they want pensioners to keep voting for them.- that's the tory base..I suspect they'll cut benefits to the long term unemployed and those on dla. Those seem to be the people the tories are out to get and they don't vote tory anyway so they don't have anything to lose.

In terms of tax cuts I suspect they'll reduce stamp duty temporarily (although I doubt they'll give a full stamp duty holiday). They'll probably cut inheritance tax. And I haven't heard any talk of it but I do think it would be a vote-winner (given the CoL crisis) if they cut VAT by maybe a percentage point.

Pensioners are the traditional Tory voters so it would be suicide to hit the state pension.
The Tory voting pensioners I know have beef with UC topping up families on lower incomes so making that tougher would be popular. They would also be happy with an inheritance tax cut too so that would be popular.
Perhaps also raising the savings tax allowance as that is hitting a lot of pensioners and savers currently and would align with the ‘reward hard work’ narrative.

I think it’s more for physio, extra power costs, equipment, things directly related to the disability, not so much the consequences and definitely not related to the loss of income.

It doesn't matter because they won’t be in government for much longer, thankfully.

The cost of living payments should definitely stop now. They were supposed to be one-offs and longer they carry on the longer they will be expected. People are already framing stopping them as 'cuts' like they did when the £20 UC covid uplift - which was temporary - was stopped.
I also think any pensioner who retires from now onwards should not have their pension protected by the triple lock as the upcoming generation of pensioners have had ample opportunity and advice to make arrangements for a comfortable retirement by paying into either a workplace or private
Sounds harsh but we just can't afford it.

It was a shocking hearing it, we all know pre election it’s improve the better off and kick the poor. But to say it out loud “here’s a tax cut and we are taking benefits back” is shameless.

foodbanks and homelessness are huge issues already. I can see them doing more punishments for the unemployed so something like new people who sign will immediately have to do 6 weeks of free work while their claim is processed. That would put loads of people off and struggle with nothing until they find their own job.

They can remove unfit from work from now and assume everyone can do something. So after a work Capability test everyone will be given a mim work hours. Which will not exist in the real world but they can sanction you for not doing. Or remove x amount from your supposed income regardless.

Not sure how much difference it will make if the election is in November but they can go out kicking and screaming and giving the poorest in society something to remember.

as the upcoming generation of pensioners have had ample opportunity and advice to make arrangements for a comfortable retirement by paying into either a workplace or private

This is just not true. Women who are becoming eligible for SP this year were probably born in 1958, starting work in 1974. The workplace and lifetime of work for these women has been nothing like what women working in the last 20 years experienced. The difference in expectation and opportunity for men and women in the workplace for most of their careers is just unimaginably vast.

I wonder whether he will reduce the triple lock on pensions to a double lock.

Not before an election!

UC, housing benefit, child tax credit/benefit, disability benefit for those considered able to work.

I have been in the workplace for the past 38 years @chewbacca and workplace pensions were a thing when I started work in 1986. I will maybe agree that starting now might be a bit harsh but I don't think we can go on supplementing people who chose not to make their own arrangements. I woman I worked with went to the bother of opting out of her workplace pension when they became mandatory a few years back. She was paying £3 a week but didn't want to even do that!

I didn’t think they’ll meddle with the triple lock. Pensioners vote Conservative in sufficient numbers that they’ll need to keep them sweet.

CoL payments will stop I think. The devolved govs may keep them in some form of course, but that’s irrelevant to this thread which is about Westminster decisions.

They’ll go after long term sick claimants and they’ll increase the working hours requirements for UC I think.

Problem with increasing the Personal Allowance to 13000 from 12570 is that people won’t see much benefit. It’s about seven quid a month extra in your pocket per person. Would that make floating voters chuffed enough to vote Conservative?

Increasing the Personal Savings Allowance significantly could be a vote generator.

I think that this election will be fought on the economy and immigration. Hunt needs to get his budget right if the Conservatives are to stand a chance, therefore.

I hope that Labour forms the next gov but if the budget hits the right spot, they will have a fight on their hands.

I think they will toughen up even more on PIP, there has been a massive jump in people claiming over the last couple of years so I think they will make it tougher.
They have already announced proposed changes to the work capability process for universal credit and making PIP the 'passport' to extra money on UC.
Sorry but I think something has to be done about the triple lock.
The costs of living payments were only one offs for a year, very unlikely that any more will be announced after the spring one.
They have already made changes to the amount of hours parents need to work on UC and that both of a couple need to work if not exempt.
I hope they speed up even more the migration to universal credit. It is a crazy system where people still on tax credits can own second homes whilst claiming benefits, have huge amounts in savings and work 24 hours between a couple and still get working tax credits. Shocking that this has been allowed to continue for so long and the migration needs to be sorted quickly instead of being dragged out any longer.

They haven't made it so both people in a couple need to work, they've just upped the AET from 900 something to 1300 ish

But not every workplace offered them, that’s the point. They weren’t offered to part time workers or those on fixed term temporary contracts. In fact not all employers offered them even if you worked full time. My DH used to work for an employer that didn’t offer one. As a 48 year old I paid into SERPS when I wasn’t able to get a workplace pension. I will be seriously fucked off if I don’t get a state pension considering all the NI I have paid over the years.

Oh, I hadn't thought of that. When my Mum had chemo for her cancer she got it and used the money to pay for a cleaner because she couldn't do it herself.