Projections for end of September

[wuntootreefore]

We have a special event planned for later this year, timing tbc, though end of September has been mooted. It will involve travel within Europe.

Does anyone have a feel for what covid will be doing around end of September? Will cases be a lot higher than now? We're in London and it seems like everyone has it at the moment. Do we think more restrictions on travel will be imposed?

Thank you!

No I think it’ll be fine

cases don’t matter

everyone vax

if people stop testing we may finally get out of this. People are obsessed with testing!

Cases will definitely increase here again in Sept with anyone that hasn't already had the BA 5 variant - schools and universities going back etc.

I imagine travel may continue to be disrupted due to staffing and strikes more than restrictions?

Thanks all. I recently had covid and it hit me really hard. I also wonder if the government might ban non-essential flights but maybe that's too extreme.

I’ve just read a news article that says we are in for a massive wave with early October being the highest peak and apparently again in March 2023. Getting really fed up with it all now.

I don't think the government (or any European governments) is prepared to go into lockdown or restrict travel again. It's already hurt the economy and now Russia is making things more difficult. You might have to accept more people than usual will cancel due to illness but I think that's as much disruption as you'll have.

@Sofedupofitall are you able to link the article please?

We're beyond restriction territory now. That won't be happening again. Neither the appetite to observe it nor the appetite to fund it remain.

There could still be significant disruption though.

Do any insurance company even insure travel for covid now?

I will give it a go.

I can’t find it. It was on my iPhone news stories a little while ago but can’t see it now. It was info from a professor at kings college university / hospital. I don’t know if anyone else can find it? It said they expected a peak on or around the 6th Oct and another in March.

Did you even realise that hospitalisations deaths have trebled in the last month?

20/7 Hospitalisations 12k, deaths 908
24/6 Hospitalisations 7k, deaths 313

Not looking good with that kind of growth in a month.

And before you say it's "with covid not due to covid", feel free to provide a reason why so many patients are in hospital "with" covid, 5K more than a month earlier and 3 times as many patients have died "with" covid over that same month. Was there another pandemic or disaster causing that kind of increase. Or, is it actually covid, despite your wishful thinking that it's gone away and doesn't harm anyone anymore?

It may have gone up

simple fact is vast majority don’t care anymore

fear factor is gone

we all have to die of something

@Sofedupofitall : is this what the article was based on?

www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/covid-19/forecasting/

Am reading this and feeling vv fed up too!!

The current level is not massively going to go up like previously as so many have had covi now

it could infect every person in the country at the same time and the deaths wouldn’t be as high as first wave due to vaccinations and reduced severity due to previous exposure

EVERY single model has been proven wrong

every single one

scaremongering

Yes similar to that but not that one. I’ll keep looking and link it if I find it.

I really hope it is scaremongering. We are hoping to go away next week but need to have a negative pcr for the teen - typically we are all feeling under the weather at the moment but lateral flows are currently negative. Just feel like I’m constantly thinking about covid and worried and anxious about going away and ruining plans yet again. We also have a weekend in London planned for the end of the holidays and looks like train strikes could ruin that. Just doesn’t seem worth planning anything fun anymore as the disappointment from the kids is too hard.

Number in Hospital is now on the way down, and has been for about 9 days. We are on the way down on this wave.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Really, the government doesn’t care anymore. ICU numbers are low. Just get on with your life

Unless we have a variant that has a substantially larger and faster kill rate, there's nothing to suggest why the free market approach we have now will change. Anyone who has had covid-19 within the last year will have their risks of heart failure increase by 72%, heart attack by 63% and stroke by 52%, even if they had the mildest of symptoms, are fit and young. This is just cardiovascular.

Some people are self-delusional about transmission having nothing to do with their behaviour or morally happy to infect others. The UK isolation guidance is half that of the WHO, and nobody yet knows with certainty how long people are infectious for, without testing. Ventilation is less effective than vaccines which cannot adapt as quickly as the virus, hence the only recommendation is to protect yourself with a high filtration mask, or effectively distance yourself. Infection rates have probably peaked now schools are closed, however they won't stay down for long, because they're caused by behaviour.

It was never about saving lives though. It was always about hospitals and infrastructure being able to cope if everyone got ill at the same time.

The vaccines were always our way out and have allowed things to stay open the last 12 months. We'd be fucked if we didn't have the vaccines.

@maryso wheres your evidence for those stats?

Omg literally no one cares

We will all be too poor to pay our gas bills come the autumn - Cold - that’s what people will die of

@morningstarz
Long-term cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19 | Nature Medicine
from a rather large study and adjusted for age, sex, race,

A tad surprised that every single poster that needs to return to 2018 doesn't already know this!

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin employers are starting to say that staff may be doing less WFH when the colder weather arrives along with higher fuel costs.

Does anyone really care anymore? The real numbers are much higher than reported because only a tiny percent are testing. Let it go.