Projections for end of September

[wuntootreefore]

We have a special event planned for later this year, timing tbc, though end of September has been mooted. It will involve travel within Europe.

Does anyone have a feel for what covid will be doing around end of September? Will cases be a lot higher than now? We're in London and it seems like everyone has it at the moment. Do we think more restrictions on travel will be imposed?

Thank you!

People should stop worrying about covid and worry why the death rate is significantly above the 5 year average and only 5% is covid related

‘The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 15 July 2022 (Week 28) was 11,933, which was 11.4% above the five-year average (1,223 excess deaths)’

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15july2022

Going by what has occurred in Australia's winter season this year, I'd recommend you be fully boosted - and by that I mean both Covid and flu vaccinations. BA.4 and BA.5 are the predominant circulating strains at the moment here, and people can catch Covid again as little as 4 weeks after a last infection. We also have had high levels of RSV in adults ((PCRs also test for flu and RSV).

Despite this, none of our states have had any appetite for entering lockdown again (thankfully). There have been some murmurings about mandating masks in public places, but so far, that has been left to personal choice. Here, nobody cares if someone else wears a mask.

To answer the question about travel restrictions, I don't think any will be imposed. Except perhaps in some countries the requirement for face coverings in some situations may be maintained or restored.

I’d be more worried about flu. Australia has had a particularly bad strain (thanks to lockdown reducing general flu immunity in the population). We get what they get. Covid should be the least of anyone’s worries at the moment…

I agree, all this constant analysing every little thing all the time seems to be just dragging it out. I really wonder what the point of it all is now.

As for schools going back we are 4 weeks into school holidays here and there has been no reduction in cases, in fact they have increased so who knows

Yes, travel insurance is still offering refunds if you test positive and cannot go. I had it a couple of months ago, there’s no way I would have gone on holiday with it, I could go out for walks but my DH and 2 adult sons stayed in bed for 5 days.

On one of John Campbell's YouTube videos recently he spoke very encouragingly about the levels of natural immunity Omicron infections were providing against mutated Omicron infections.

I agree

There are an awful lot of people who know someone now, whose cancer symptoms or other serious illness symptoms were either missed or they were fobbed off during the lockdowns and who are now reaching end of life.

There are lots of things that increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes. People smoking, drinking, crap diets, lack of exercise, obesity etc and we just accept that as part of life. Covid will be the same.

Those conditions are "Self" inflicted though. Covid is something that others give you! You really can't blame anyone else if you're an alcoholic, smoker, drug taker or stuff your face with cake! You CAN blame others who spread covid, especially those who know they have it but still carry on as normal!

I think that September should be ok, but I wouldn't want to leave it until October. Is it feasible to book, but with travel insurance that will definitely cover it if any of you do get Covid, or anything else that could stop you travelling?

Haven't been bothered since the vaccines were rolled out, otherwise what was the point?

The vaccines were the game changer and we just have to live with it. More people will die of poverty in the next few years than Covid.

Honestly? I don’t think anyone cares anymore. I abided but all the rules when we were required to, now it’s time to start living again. There are far worse issues to be facing at the moment.

The real numbers are much higher than reported because only a tiny percent are testing
The published numbers are nothing to do with reported tests. They come from statistical samples.

I don't think you can plan around covid. Rates could be high but you dodge it or low but you catch it. Just make sure you have good travel insurance.
Covid affected me badly but the only thing I do differently now is to take more precautions just before an important event or holiday.

you need to read the article properly, these stats are meaningless compared to the population as a whole. did you not notice the study population?!!?
"""This study has several limitations. The demographic composition of our cohort (majority White and male) might limit the generalizability of study findings. We used the electronic healthcare databases of the US Department of Veterans Affairs to conduct this study""" ex-US army/forces vets are not known for being the most healthy of sub-groups!!

You certainly need to read the article properly!
They have adjusted for the veteran population by using over 5m contemporary controls and over 5m historical controls, and statistically adjusted for women and people of colour. Did you miss this?

What is getting increasingly obvious is that covid is really really into "equality of opportunity". It does what it does to whatever age of fitness

Posted before finishing, that covid impacts all people regardless of their demographic, it's an equal opportunity disease.

No it isn't.

That's what the current research is finding. However I'm perfectly happy that you think "it isn't" since it really doesn't make any difference to anyone what you or i think.

This is about what researchers have discovered, to some dismay. Risk is elevated even for the young and those with no other risk factors. So "yes, it is!"

@maryso but I assume it is a 72% risk increase not a 72% chance which are very different things.

so if my risk was 1% it would be 1.72% now (I think) 10% would now be 17.2 (it’s late forgive the maths).

so yes risk is elevated but if the risk was small the increase is also fairly small

@Quartz2208 you're right, risk is all that such data studies can glean. Individual demographics will have different risks. The unexpected bad news is that the increased risk applies across the board, regardless of demographic, which is quite unusual.

The point of these studies is to inform public health policy, since long covid is now yet another aspect to plan for. As is amply evident from the forum, views vary, which is to be expected. Public health policy however I suspect cannot afford to ignore the data in future planning whether or not we as individuals wish to.

@maryso i think though that adding in the huge percentages puts people off the message - it makes it sound as if the risk is huge and therefore dismiss it.

Whereas actually covid is potentially a risk factor alongside high blood pressure/diet/smoking etc and perhaps similar to the risk of birth control pills.

The difference being that most of the other factors you have a level of personal control over Covid you don’t in the same way.

seriously Mary!!!!!You have written that "anybody getting covid in the last year will have their risks increased by....". BOTH the control group and the historical control group are ALSO veterans. """"two control groups: a contemporary cohort consisting of 5,637,647 users of the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system with no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and a historical cohort (pre-dating the COVID-19 pandemic) consisting of 5,859,411 non-COVID-19-infected VHA users during 2017. """ the study group were also all those that used VHA in 2019 (likewise a selecting bias) plus this was people getting infected between March 2020 and Jan 2021 ....this is PRE-VACCINNES!!!! we now have vaccines and most of us have had repeated exposure... it is no longer a novel virus. If we knew in 2020 what we know now we could have done things very differently and they'd be far far fewer people who have died or suffered poor health as a result...but we are not there now. For the OP's question - no i'm not booking any travel abroad this winter because, of course, rates of Covid will go up again, as all transmissible viruses do in autumn/winter and I can't face the hassle of catching it pre-flight but that's my sensible hat on ....plus I have no idea what rules europe will re-introduce around further boosters. But i'm heading abroad this summer and next summer,

Did you get to the part where they adjusted the data for women and race?

The study is aimed at public health policy however is there for everyone to see and make their own choices. What's the problem?

@Quartz2208 it didn't stop you understanding because you actually looked at the facts, and an increased risk of 70% is substantial wherever you start from. I'm not interested in persuading anyone one way or the other, and am not responsible for their inability to understand data, and certainly not on a social media forum. I think the forum is useful to support people suffering the effects of covid to share what others have experienced and found helpful. The data thread is also valuable. The remaining unsubstantiated opinion is at best an attempt at entertainment, however the neediness of posters to be validated is rarely found in the real world, even from pub stools. It makes absolute zero impact on public health policy or medical treatment or viral development.