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Projections for end of September

61 replies

wuntootreefore · 27/07/2022 16:13

We have a special event planned for later this year, timing tbc, though end of September has been mooted. It will involve travel within Europe.

Does anyone have a feel for what covid will be doing around end of September? Will cases be a lot higher than now? We're in London and it seems like everyone has it at the moment. Do we think more restrictions on travel will be imposed?

Thank you!

OP posts:
2022again · 02/08/2022 13:26

maryso · 02/08/2022 11:03

Did you get to the part where they adjusted the data for women and race?

The study is aimed at public health policy however is there for everyone to see and make their own choices. What's the problem?

errrr...i can see you don't understand!!! whatever adjustments they make this isn't representative of a "general population" ....to be a veteran you are certainly not going to be a young person under 20 for example and the majority of veterans will be of middle age onwards (this group still includes people old enough to have fought in Korea and Vietnam remember!) .Age is a massive factor in risk, alongside obesity and diabetes. Even with younger vets, if you have seen active conflict in the gulf, afghanistan etc there are many that suffered ongoing mental and physical harms as a result of their service...we are not talking about a young, healthy group of people....see below!!! I have no problem with agreeing with you that covid was and is potentially deadly or harm causing but for you to state that EVERYONE is then subject to that increase in risks is just wrong and I state again, this was a pre-vaccine study...has the vaccine not given you any confidence in surviving covid without harm??
"""""1. Vets are nearly twice as likely to have heart disease and heart attacks
About 6 percent of veterans will have a heart attack or develop coronary heart disease, compared to between 3 and 4 percent of civilians who will have those health problems.
What’s more, there’s some evidence that post-traumatic stress disorder could damage the heart over time, according to a 2015 study published in the American Journal of Public Health. The seven-year study analyzed the health of more than 8,000 veterans living in Hawaii and the Pacific Islands and found that veterans with PSTD were 50 percent more likely to have heart failure than veterans without PTSD.

  1. Skin cancer is a major concern for Iraq and Afghanistan vets
According to the new America’s Health Rankings report, nearly half of veterans 80 years old and older were diagnosed with cancer, compared to about a third of civilians of the same age. But younger veterans, particularly those who’ve returned from Iraq and Afghanistan, might want to be especially cognizant about their risk for skin cancer. According to a study published in the Journal of Investigative Dermatology last year, only 13 percent of veterans reported using sunscreen regularly during their last deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan. While 87 percent said they sometimes used sunscreen, 20 percent reported getting at least one blistering sunburn. That one blistering sunburn is enough to seriously up vets’ cancer risk, since sustaining five more more sunburns during one’s life doubles his or her risk of melanoma, according to the Skin Cancer Foundation.
  1. Veterans are more likely to engage in high-risk behavior
A good chuck of those who have served ― 43 percent of them ― are unlikely to get sufficient sleep, which can raise their risk for diabetes, stroke and obesity. Their daytime behavior isn’t necessarily making up for it either. Although veterans are more likely to exercise than civilians, they’re also more likely to drink excessively and smoke, high-risk behaviors that are linked to a host of health problems, including cancer, high blood pressure, alcoholism and mental health problems. ADVERTISEMENT To learn more about veterans’ health and how you can support it, read the full report or visit the American Medical Association’s section on veteran-related health issues.""""
Quartz2208 · 02/08/2022 21:42

@maryso

increased risk of 70% is substantial wherever you start from

Not necessarily - percentages in themselves are meaningless without context. A small percentage of a large number is far far far bigger than a higher percentage of a much smaller number.

maryso · 03/08/2022 11:54

2022again · 02/08/2022 13:26

errrr...i can see you don't understand!!! whatever adjustments they make this isn't representative of a "general population" ....to be a veteran you are certainly not going to be a young person under 20 for example and the majority of veterans will be of middle age onwards (this group still includes people old enough to have fought in Korea and Vietnam remember!) .Age is a massive factor in risk, alongside obesity and diabetes. Even with younger vets, if you have seen active conflict in the gulf, afghanistan etc there are many that suffered ongoing mental and physical harms as a result of their service...we are not talking about a young, healthy group of people....see below!!! I have no problem with agreeing with you that covid was and is potentially deadly or harm causing but for you to state that EVERYONE is then subject to that increase in risks is just wrong and I state again, this was a pre-vaccine study...has the vaccine not given you any confidence in surviving covid without harm??
"""""1. Vets are nearly twice as likely to have heart disease and heart attacks
About 6 percent of veterans will have a heart attack or develop coronary heart disease, compared to between 3 and 4 percent of civilians who will have those health problems.
What’s more, there’s some evidence that post-traumatic stress disorder could damage the heart over time, according to a 2015 study published in the American Journal of Public Health. The seven-year study analyzed the health of more than 8,000 veterans living in Hawaii and the Pacific Islands and found that veterans with PSTD were 50 percent more likely to have heart failure than veterans without PTSD.

  1. Skin cancer is a major concern for Iraq and Afghanistan vets
According to the new America’s Health Rankings report, nearly half of veterans 80 years old and older were diagnosed with cancer, compared to about a third of civilians of the same age. But younger veterans, particularly those who’ve returned from Iraq and Afghanistan, might want to be especially cognizant about their risk for skin cancer. According to a study published in the Journal of Investigative Dermatology last year, only 13 percent of veterans reported using sunscreen regularly during their last deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan. While 87 percent said they sometimes used sunscreen, 20 percent reported getting at least one blistering sunburn. That one blistering sunburn is enough to seriously up vets’ cancer risk, since sustaining five more more sunburns during one’s life doubles his or her risk of melanoma, according to the Skin Cancer Foundation.
  1. Veterans are more likely to engage in high-risk behavior
A good chuck of those who have served ― 43 percent of them ― are unlikely to get sufficient sleep, which can raise their risk for diabetes, stroke and obesity. Their daytime behavior isn’t necessarily making up for it either. Although veterans are more likely to exercise than civilians, they’re also more likely to drink excessively and smoke, high-risk behaviors that are linked to a host of health problems, including cancer, high blood pressure, alcoholism and mental health problems. ADVERTISEMENT To learn more about veterans’ health and how you can support it, read the full report or visit the American Medical Association’s section on veteran-related health issues.""""

So I think what you're saying is that the statistical compensations for women, race etc being low in the data are not to your satisfaction. The researchers themselves have highlighted this may be the case, just as they have said they could only work with cardiovascular data, and therefore the findings were effectively silent on other functions.

The study is to inform health policy, and what we take from it at a personal level is exactly that, personal. I'm impressed that you've taken the trouble to set out your thinking, because it's actually important that different conclusions (between yours and other researchers) are aired.

maryso · 03/08/2022 12:07

Quartz2208 · 02/08/2022 21:42

@maryso

increased risk of 70% is substantial wherever you start from

Not necessarily - percentages in themselves are meaningless without context. A small percentage of a large number is far far far bigger than a higher percentage of a much smaller number.

Well if risk increased from 40% to 70% that would change most behaviours. An increase of 4% to 7% is much more open. Knowing their personal risks may cause some to make a trip to get a prophylactic like Evusheld, which although MHRA approved is not available in the UK. It's up to people to work that out for themselves. The data and numbers are just that, they don't have intentions and certainly don't twist or spin depending on personal motivations.

As i said before, I'm not interested in persuading anyone one way or the other, and am not responsible for their inability to understand data. I think the forum is useful for covid sufferers to share experiences and helpful actions, and of course the data thread is invaluable. The remaining unsubstantiated opinion is at best entertainment, however the neediness of posters to be validated is rarely found in the real world, even from pub stools. It makes absolute zero impact on public health policy or medical treatment or the course of the virus.

JS87 · 03/08/2022 12:15

Nerdygirl · 27/07/2022 23:24

People should stop worrying about covid and worry why the death rate is significantly above the 5 year average and only 5% is covid related

‘The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 15 July 2022 (Week 28) was 11,933, which was 11.4% above the five-year average (1,223 excess deaths)’

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15july2022

Depends what counts as covid related. Probably not counted as covid related if you die of a heart attack or a stroke six months after you had covid but as pp said, could well be because you had covid.

Quartz2208 · 03/08/2022 12:29

Well if risk increased from 40% to 70% that would change most behaviours.

But it still depends on what your initial risk is. That percentage increases is meaningless without an initial risk factor. For a very low risk the increase difference between 4 to 7% and 40 to 70% is smaller than you think.

Scianel · 03/08/2022 14:35

Cost of living crises means that most people won't give a shiny shit about covid and no government will be in a position to fund any measures.
There's a small group of wealthy neurotic twitter blue-ticks who want to keep it a thing but it's over.

starcatfish · 03/08/2022 15:39

Scianel · 03/08/2022 14:35

Cost of living crises means that most people won't give a shiny shit about covid and no government will be in a position to fund any measures.
There's a small group of wealthy neurotic twitter blue-ticks who want to keep it a thing but it's over.

The people who risk losing their jobs or self-employment income due to repeated time off sick with covid, or who get long covid and can't work as much, or who can't make ends meet due to inadequate sick pay, might end up caring quite a lot.

Not having to worry about taking time off to be ill is a luxury most people don't have.

user1497207191 · 03/08/2022 16:18

starcatfish · 03/08/2022 15:39

The people who risk losing their jobs or self-employment income due to repeated time off sick with covid, or who get long covid and can't work as much, or who can't make ends meet due to inadequate sick pay, might end up caring quite a lot.

Not having to worry about taking time off to be ill is a luxury most people don't have.

I agree. Plus the knock on effects of absenteeism due to covid, i.e. cancelled planes/trains, poorer customer service due to staff shortages, etc. These all have an impact on business, and therefore the economy.

Scianel · 03/08/2022 17:08

Not having to worry about taking time off to be ill is a luxury most people don't have

My DH, who earns our primary income, is self-employed. He just works when he's ill. There's no luxury there.

HesterShaw1 · 03/08/2022 19:13

The people who risk losing their jobs or self-employment income due to repeated time off sick with covid, or who get long covid and can't work as much, or who can't make ends meet due to inadequate sick pay, might end up caring quite a lot.

What do you actually propose given that the country is broke? "Light touch" measures such as mask wearing and "social distancing"? That worked a treat in the past, didn't it? What are you actual suggestions?

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