Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

[Jenasaurus]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

December to March and November to March for C19 on death cert

and daily + seven day average number graphs

The SW numbers look something to watch.

Anyway, Happy Christmas all (covid free hopefully)

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/25/uk-to-stop-publishing-covid-modelling-data

Problably not missing much. We all get the point that if covid is spreading like wildfire then the 'R' is above 1. It's just confirmation that we're all meant to ignore the inevitable January surge.

Anecdotal but for the first time in the pandemic, I know two people in hospital because of covid. Low exygen but not pneumonia. Both of them vaccinated and recently boosted. This'll be the first winter we rely solely on vaccines - lets hope they hold-up for the majority.

I agree @containsnuts

If you aren’t going to do anything about the data there’s not much point collecting it. At this point we can probably predict we’re going to get a wave every 8-12 weeks without modelling anyway and the published R number has tended to be about 3 weeks behind the actual wave.

I've been watching the Zoe App numbers rather than the official ones as I reckon they're probably showing a more accurate picture a lot of the time.

Altho Zubaida Haque has tweeted that it's bad because if they don't have official data they can pretend it doesn't exist.

See also:

inews.co.uk/news/nhs-targets-scrapped-government-plans-health-service-2049604

It became a bit of a running joke on another forum. About 3 weeks after the case numbers and test positivity in the national figures started going up there would’ve an announcement that R was above one.

I’m sure I’ve seen it mentioned in an official document somewhere WRT whether or not it was quite the right measure to be using to manage a pandemic. It used to do the same thing going down as well. I’m not sure we ever got to the bottom of why.

Looks like we'll still have the ONS data which although is delayed is probably more accurate. Zoe usually tracks similar to ONS but has the benefit of being very up-to-date with only a 2 day lag, I think. I just hope the officials pay attention if something worrying shows up on Zoe. It's our early warning system.

ONS data might be a bit patchy for December. I did a swab for the ONS study in early December but haven't had results yet. They usually take about a week.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.22.22283867v1

Children found to be biggest spreaders in French study - preprint

Goodness. What a surprise.

Your post made me think, are we still considered to be in a Pandemic or is this now endemic? Not sure it matters just curious what the criteria is, I assume as we are all 'living with it' and no longer testing or isolating its considered the latter

XBB.1.5, one to keep an eye on.

erictopol.substack.com/p/a-new-variant-alert

I am wondering why government appears to be so relaxed about the potential spread from China?

Will it not cause an absolutely massive international wave?

I heard an expert on R 4 explain that the variant out there is now less prevalent here, but I didn't understand the reasoning.

If anyone can help, I'd be grateful.

A doctor writes to The Guardian re the govt decision to suppress Covid info

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/29/we-are-ignoring-covid-case-rises-once-again

Government reconsidering, surprise surprise, @Words

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64116416

Pouria (of the Dashboard and latterly, campaigning against women's treatment in Iran) has got an MBE!!

twitter.com/pouriaaa/status/1608961599284588544?s=46&t=FVKjr0E2HOFjTZCEVv7q6A

Finally got a result from my ONS swab and blood test on 02/12, unsurprisingly "test failure" after 4 weeks. If that's typical of postal tests then ONS data will have a lot of holes for December.

Wow @InMySpareTime.

Happy new year all.

Fraser Nelson article on strangeness of Pouria'a MBE even though the open data revolution has been abandoned:

twitter.com/pouriaaa/status/1609611545805193217?s=46&t=f5Pow8YmN7WDw4k6mlAVsw

UKHSA has issued advice to parents not to send ill children to school - Flu, Covid and Strep A worries.

I wonder how much this news of Kraken, XBB.1.5 led to that warning? Immune evasive and highly transmissible:

twitter.com/zubhaque/status/1609857451284643841?s=46&t=baLaHSWvfThEOmdZ_0S4DA

This is sensible advice but won't work unless parents get paid time off work and schools relax attendance targets.