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Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

1000 replies

Jenasaurus · 09/04/2022 05:18

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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MargaretThursday · 16/03/2023 18:37

I'd say it was 2-4weeks ago loads of people round here had it. Haven't heard of a new case this week, which is the first time for ages.

maryso · 16/03/2023 18:38

RafaistheKingofClay · 16/03/2023 15:27

Looking at our inpatient numbers we’re on our way down from a wave that peaked last week or possibly the week before. Having said that, the troughs seem to be getting higher and shorter as far as I can tell.

Unfortunately I concur with this; though we're just descending from the peak the troughs are getting higher and shorter. Also that the UK waves are reflecting unhampered transmission overall while in other countries where distancing ventilation and masking are normalised transmission is hampered and hence have lower infection and death rates. Looks like it will remain a tale of two health outcomes globally, depending on individual behaviours.

containsnuts · 16/03/2023 20:45

From Twitter this morning.

Maybe the Easter school holidays will bring things down again?

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Severalus · 19/03/2023 19:57

Just popping my head in here to see what you clever lot make of John Campbell's latest video.

My feeling is he's gone off the deep end. His analysis seems unsound to me, lots of conclusions are being drawn that don't necessarily have grounds. For example, MRNA vaccines having a very high number of yellow card reports doesn't necessarily mean they're bad. I would suggest that before the pandemic very few people knew about how and where to report vaccine side effects, nobody really heard of it unless their doctor told them specifically to report something. Now it's very common knowledge so of course reports will increase.

I just wondered if anyone has any thoughts on what led him down this path (apologies if this has already been covered). What a strange turn he's taken!

containsnuts · 20/03/2023 07:52

@Severalus I unfollowed John Campbell about a year ago for this very reason. There was a thread on here about it but I'd recommend Back to the Science on Youtube. Dr Susan unpicks a lot of Campbell's 'misrepresentations'.

I haven't watched the video but as you say, I don't think the a high number if yellow card reports in itself is surprising giving the massive number of people who had the vaccine. I don't think anyone tried to tell us that there would be absolutely no side effects for anyone, just that the side effects would be mild for most and would balance with the benefits of vaccination (I say this as someone who had a pretty bad side effects and was told to register via yellow card).

MargaretThursday · 20/03/2023 16:49

I think there's also a case of bias for people reporting. So you hear on the news that it "might" have X side effect eg a headache, and you think "oh I had a headache the day after, I must report it."

For example, I know a number of people who mentioned it effecting their period after that had been in the news a few times... but at least some of them I know from previous discussions that their period wasn't particularly regular (no I don't have these conversations often!) and when I asked how it had effected their cycle, they were talking about a few days late/early. But they'd become aware of it because of the news articles.

I know I've done similar too.

RafaistheKingofClay · 20/03/2023 17:34

maryso · 16/03/2023 18:38

Unfortunately I concur with this; though we're just descending from the peak the troughs are getting higher and shorter. Also that the UK waves are reflecting unhampered transmission overall while in other countries where distancing ventilation and masking are normalised transmission is hampered and hence have lower infection and death rates. Looks like it will remain a tale of two health outcomes globally, depending on individual behaviours.

Well it didn’t last long. They’re going up again before they’d properly come down. Seem to have been a lot of ambulances around at the weekend too. Might be confirmation bias but there always seems to be more around when covid is peaking.

Severalus · 20/03/2023 21:47

Thanks @containsnuts , I'll check that video out.

@MargaretThursday yes this was my thought exactly, coincidental findings can be mistaken for causation. I'm always tired and achey from running around after a 3 year old all day and being terribly out of shape. If someone told me to watch out for dodgy symptoms and report them after having a jab then I could easily convince myself I felt a bit worse than usual and flag them.

Fluffodils · 26/03/2023 06:49

Is it a new variant or stil omicron

boys3 · 20/04/2023 11:44

a quick update on hospital and admissions in England, with the ONS survey now of course having finished a few weeks back.

Admissions in England - full year comps; this year and last year March to June, and regional rates per million over the past few months.

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 20/04/2023 11:47

Same for number in hospital

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 20/04/2023 11:47

the sharp NW regional dip

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 20/04/2023 11:48

vents

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
GarlicGrace · 20/04/2023 11:56

Thank you so much, @Jenasaurus & @boys3 ! I charted all the stats in detail from March 2020 to June 22, then gave up as the UK was obfuscating so much data by then. I need numbers to understand what's going on - and had no idea the current wave was this bad.

I'm glad to see it tailing off a bit now people are getting outdoors more. But am off to the shops in a minute and will be sticking a mask on my face!

MargaretThursday · 21/04/2023 11:12

Thank you!

I wonder what caused that sharp drop in the Manchester hospital. That's not a "normal" drop-it reminds me of the one where they had the blips at the testing places, but if anything more extreme.

@GarlicGrace I plotted similarly, then continued to plot Zoe's numbers for a bit, but gave up.

verdantverdure · 27/04/2023 20:23

"An estimated 1 in 10 infections results in post #Covid19 condition suggesting that hundreds of millions of people will need longer term care."

twitter.com/who/status/1651227079684358151?s=46&t=1F3_GXoDvLPajCYTYkHKGg

Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022
boys3 · 18/05/2023 15:56

Interesting little milestone in the NHS figures published today for number of people in England on mechanical ventilator beds.

for the first time since Summer 2020 the seven day average has fallen below 100.

the seven day average for the number in hospital is now at a lower level than at any point in 2022. The gradual downward trajectory continues now standing at 3777, the lowest seven day average figure since 22nd July 2021.

though for context the seven day average low in 2021 was 753, the figure on 31st May that year, whilst in 2020 the low was 476 as at 5th September that year.

Cornettoninja · 18/05/2023 17:08

Thanks @boys3. it’s easy to miss news on Covid these days so I appreciate you spotting and sharing Smile

megletthesecond · 18/05/2023 18:26

14yo DD has her second dose in 6 months. My dc's used to have 100% attendance pre covid. They get a flu jab but it looks like no more covid jabs and a few days off every year with covid.

megletthesecond · 18/05/2023 18:27

I've not worded that very well. It's her second covid infection in 6 months.

Quarantino · 18/05/2023 21:17

Cornettoninja · 18/05/2023 17:08

Thanks @boys3. it’s easy to miss news on Covid these days so I appreciate you spotting and sharing Smile

Me too!

JanglyBeads · 18/05/2023 21:18

I'm just wondering if Covid stats can be trusted these days seeing as they hardly test any more?

GarlicGrace · 05/06/2023 19:20

Modern science has made this even more of a thorny topic than in earlier times. We usually evaluate the impacts of past pandemics by looking at the escalations in mortality (all causes) and localised population drops. It is taken as read that widespread disease will have caused many further deaths due to domino effects on trade, resource availability, social restrictions, etc. The total effect of a pandemic is what matters.

Covid-19 is the first novel pathogen to have been identified, analysed and sequenced in real time as it happened. These were incredible achievements of a global scientific community working together through good will, as were the first tests, vaccines and treatment protocols.

But our new ability to quickly identify the pathogen gave rise to the "of, with or from?" argument - which is pointless in the scheme of things, but still exercises many. It indulged an eagerness to separate with-Covid deaths from all the others that would not have happened if there had been no pandemic. These are being seen as due to failings in health services and governance, rather than part of Covid's impact.

From a planning point of view, the information is useful. However, public health planning always takes the full picture into account. The new data allows experts to track the falling dominoes more accurately than before; this is the only way the insights should be used.

Instead, the picture's being insistently blurred by commentators getting carried away with the new granularity of data. They're missing the main point - which is that all these deaths (and subsequent economic & social repercussions) were caused by the fact of Covid-19.

I suppose that, for as long as the UK has a government that deliberately ignores public health assessments, this doesn't matter much.

But long-term - it matters. It really matters a lot.

Quarantino · 05/06/2023 19:43

I agree, it's so important. My aunt, who luckily is still with us, found a lump in the early days of Covid and did put off getting it seen - only a bit, but who knows what would've happened in better (or worse) situations.

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