Data & analysis thread, started 9th April 2022

[Jenasaurus]

Welcome to another instalment of the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

sine is of course since

Finally deaths within 28 days by date of death

ONS infection survey is out a day early this week.

England - the percentage of people testing positive decreased to around 1 in 14 people.

Wales - remained high around 1 in 13 people.

Northern Ireland - decreased to around1 in 19 people.

Scotland - decreased to around 1 in 17 people.

Over 70s (7.2%) are the highest age group. North East (7.9%) followed by the East Midlands (7.6%) are the highest regions.

Thanks all for this data

Thank you for keeping this thread running and updated - much appreciated!

@Lonelyplanet

ONS infection survey is out a day early this week.

England - the percentage of people testing positive decreased to around 1 in 14 people.

Wales - remained high around 1 in 13 people.

Northern Ireland - decreased to around1 in 19 people.

Scotland - decreased to around 1 in 17 people.

Over 70s (7.2%) are the highest age group. North East (7.9%) followed by the East Midlands (7.6%) are the highest regions.

I wonder why it's still high in the over 70s especially since those 75+ have been offered a 2nd booster? Maybe more people are picking it up in care homes and hospitals with prevelance being so high and less testing/isolations etc?

A lot of people over 75 and who are CEV/ were told to shield have been very cautious.

With the numbers of infected people so high, for so long, and with fewer people isolating, even if they have covid, etc., there is spread even to people who have been careful.

.

Care homes have been hit quite hard since Christmas. This graph is from the UKHSA surveillance report:
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

Re ONS Infection Survey Because of a shortened publication cycle for this release (to accommodate the 15 to 18 April 2022 bank holiday weekend), sub-regional analyses have not been updated this week. So no tables to see those LA groupings movements compared with prior weeks.

I wonder why it's still high in the over 70s especially since those 75+ have been offered a 2nd booster?

I think you may need to look around for roll out figures in different area - I have several eligible relatives due to age - 75+ - or underlying conditions or both in different parts of the midlands and they either haven't heard yet or are next week.

It takes 3 weeks for the booster to fully take, doesn't it?

The over 75s I know only started getting invited to come and get them less than 3 weeks ago, and some are still waiting.

DF is 75 and doesn’t hit six months until next week. Having gone for his first booster a day early, accidentally, and being turned away, he refuses to go for his second booster until the day after six months. I suspect there are others the same. Then once he’s had it it’ll be May before it takes effect.

One possible explanation for rates being higher in the over 70s is just that it makes them sicker - so they test. And over 75s still get free tests dont they?

The stats are from the ONS sampling which is independent of the level of community testing as it tests the same people every 4 weeks.

ONS doesnt include care homes, so it isnt that. To quote from the sampling explanation "This means that in all four countries only private households are included in the study. People living in care homes, other communal establishments and hospitals are not included."

As always, thank you for the thread.

One possible explanation for rates being higher in the over 70s is just that it makes them sicker

And, given what we know in the past, they present more at hospital for other completely unrelated issues and test positive without symptoms / few symptoms.

I am a bit confused by:

England - the percentage of people testing positive decreased to around 1 in 14 people
Over 70s (7.2%) are the highest age group.

Since 1 in 14 is of course 7.14% so, the different age groups must be extremely similar for 7.2% to be the highest? Especially when it's a relatively smaller age group than others.

Fred - From the ons report:
"In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in the week ending 9 April 2022; we estimate that 3,773,800 people in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,662,100 to 3,888,000), equating to 6.92% of the population or around 1 in 14 people"

All the upper age groups are currently very high and children and under 25s lower.

Since 1 in 14 is of course 7.14% so, the different age groups must be extremely similar for 7.2% to be the highest? Especially when it's a relatively smaller age group than others.

There are also different cut offs used for different numbers.

The headline ONS number (1 in 14) was estimated at April 6 (with modelled population level prevalence of 6.92%).

The 7.2% for 70+ was estimated at April 9. By that time the population level estimate had fallen further to 6.55% (1 in 15). The end of the week point often gets revised in subsequent releases so it doesn’t appear in headlines.

@sirfredfredgeorge

One possible explanation for rates being higher in the over 70s is just that it makes them sicker

And, given what we know in the past, they present more at hospital for other completely unrelated issues and test positive without symptoms / few symptoms.

I am a bit confused by:

England - the percentage of people testing positive decreased to around 1 in 14 people
Over 70s (7.2%) are the highest age group.

Since 1 in 14 is of course 7.14% so, the different age groups must be extremely similar for 7.2% to be the highest? Especially when it's a relatively smaller age group than others.

The rates in the ONS survey are from population sampling, so are not based on actual sickness at the time of testing.

I can't find the source, but I read in one article that the take-up of the spring/fourth booster has been quite low among over-75s. I remember it specifically because I was quite shocked especially given that the effectiveness of three vaccinations against hospitalisation/mortality drops quite significantly in over 75s.

This is where you can see the data on how many spring boosters have been given to date: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

It's at 1,787,237 today - that of course includes immuno-suppressed people too, so it's not possible to say exactly how many over-75s have had it, but it's pretty far off the estimately 5.4 million over 75s alive in 2018.

This is the article with the data about how quickly vaccine protection wanes in older people: www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/18/covid-immunity-declines-steeply-in-care-home-residents-study

@unim. A friend of mine who is 75 and not CEV only got her booster end of last week, that was the first available day she could book. Some people I know who are eligible have had covid recently, so are waiting a while before having the booster.

I think one of the main reasons why JCVI has not recommended spring boosters for under 75 was their concern around “vaccination fatigue”.

I hope the numbers will go up from the current level but I doubt they will reach 90%+ we used to see in the older age groups.

I noticed on the government website that the last figure for deaths was 1, 984 in 1 week (within 28 days of testing)

This was a 50% increase on the previous week.

I guess, if rates are high in the older population, this would follow?

I's interesting that this doesn't seem to have been reported upon much.

@wintertravel1980

I think one of the main reasons why JCVI has not recommended spring boosters for under 75 was their concern around “vaccination fatigue”.

I hope the numbers will go up from the current level but I doubt they will reach 90%+ we used to see in the older age groups.

I think a number of previously shielding people would be glad of it. Why not give them the option?