On course for another lockdown?

[TalkToTheHand123]

Covis cases on a rapid rise, heading towards 100,000 daily cases. Are we heading for another lockdown?

Yes, this is the problem with the sensible mitigations argument. It's based on the assumption that there actually exist things that can be done that will effectively tackle coronavirus, whilst still being minor enough to fall into the mitigation category. The evidence for that isn't there.

Yes, this is the problem with the sensible mitigations argument. It's based on the assumption that there actually exist things that can be done that will effectively tackle coronavirus, whilst still being minor enough to fall into the mitigation category. The evidence for that isn't there

Exactly

The main defence is vaccination, swift anti virals for those who catch it in the CV or CEV category and swift systems to administer those.

From what Ive read on here, the anti viruls are only for CEV and even then, by the time someone is contacted about their positive result, the window of opportunity has been missed for them to receive those drugs.
Thats the bit that needs improving

Very good article on the Hong Kong situation here

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/news/as-told-to/how-covid-exploded-in-hong-kong/amp

[quote TheKeatingFive]Very good article on the Hong Kong situation here

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/news/as-told-to/how-covid-exploded-in-hong-kong/amp[/quote]
Thats fascinating and horrendous, particularly the background about their health seeking culture for any small ailment and their view of the elderly and elderly choices

To be honest Im surprised at some of that. Its quite different to what I understand about Japan, whereby the elderly are very robust and long lived. I dont know about China.

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't. Each area has different rates and rate of case rises. Hong Kong and China are using a far weaker vaccine.
Rates expected to peak within a couple of weaks and then start falling aparantly, even with no restrictions.

*weeks

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't.

There really isn't evidence to actually support that though. It seems to come from wishful thinking.

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't.

Where is the evidence for this? Mitigations rather than actual lockdown.

Thats fascinating and horrendous, particularly the background about their health seeking culture for any small ailment and their view of the elderly and elderly choices

Yes. It's strange to see what seem to be quite basic mistakes being made, which are obvious to countries which have had a lot of infection.

Getting the older population vaccinated being the biggest game changer of all when it comes to covid.

@TheKeatingFive

Thats fascinating and horrendous, particularly the background about their health seeking culture for any small ailment and their view of the elderly and elderly choices

Yes. It's strange to see what seem to be quite basic mistakes being made, which are obvious to countries which have had a lot of infection.

Getting the older population vaccinated being the biggest game changer of all when it comes to covid.

Absolutely. That's what we have to do better at, globally. Things would've been a lot worse here had the vaccination programme not reached such a high percentage of the elderly population. Vaccination is vital.

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't.

I don't think that's necessarily the case, as the virus is increasingly transmissible. In other words, short of a complete lockdown the virus will spread rapidly regardless.

@Lilaclavenders

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't.

I don't think that's necessarily the case, as the virus is increasingly transmissible. In other words, short of a complete lockdown the virus will spread rapidly regardless.

Even then its impossible, people still have to run public transport, police, health services, social services, supermarkets, delivery companies, garages, all the vital services that have to continue and therefore people would catch it there anyway

@Lilaclavenders

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't.

I don't think that's necessarily the case, as the virus is increasingly transmissible. In other words, short of a complete lockdown the virus will spread rapidly regardless.

Exactly. Of course we could all lock ourselves in separate rooms for a month. That would work.

@Lilaclavenders

The mitigation slows it down. It would be worse if it wasn't.

I don't think that's necessarily the case, as the virus is increasingly transmissible. In other words, short of a complete lockdown the virus will spread rapidly regardless.

I don’t think a lockdown would work at all now, given the transmissibility of omicron even if you got known cases down to zero it would only take a couple of cases to start off another wave of infection. With travel and animal reservoirs it’s basically impossible without a sterilising vaccine. And that doesn’t look promising with current research.

I think the only mitigation that would make a meaningful impact on numbers would be back to isolating contacts along with the infected but you’d have to go further back than two days given how rapidly it spreads and that just wouldn’t be acceptable to the public at this point.

I think masks do make a difference but it’s much smaller than the argument raging around them and with numbers as high as they are. They are a hard marketing problem because peoples expectations are skewed.

If I've read correctly covid rates are on a decline, even when all things are opened up. If the vulnerable are being offered another jab soon, do people think the non vulnerable will be needing one and will they be regular or not need any more jabs?

If I've read correctly covid rates are on a decline, even when all things are opened up

It depends where you look. Testing, both community PCR and LFT aren’t really reliable given it’s been wound down and due to stop. It will take a while to gage what level it’ll settle at to be able to tell increases/declines as hospital admissions and deaths lag behind infections by so long.

If you put any stock in the ZOE symptom study cases are the highest they’ve ever been at around 350k new infections per day.

I think the only mitigation that would make a meaningful impact on numbers would be back to isolating contacts along with the infected but you’d have to go further back than two days given how rapidly it spreads and that just wouldn’t be acceptable to the public at this point.

This is it really, there's just not going to be widespread adherence. It's not an option any more.

Given that people are highly infectious in the two days BEFORE even testing positive, there is no way to stop the spread!

Unless, as was suggested below, we all lock ourselves in separate rooms for a week...!

In fairness a shorter incubation period (which omicron has) is much better for lockdowns than the very first strain which was a longer incubation period.

That’s countered by the increased transmissibility but if we’d had this strain back in March 2020 but with the same transmissibility as the original strain zero-covid would’ve possibly been achievable in a shorter time frame.

@HardyBuckette

I think the only mitigation that would make a meaningful impact on numbers would be back to isolating contacts along with the infected but you’d have to go further back than two days given how rapidly it spreads and that just wouldn’t be acceptable to the public at this point.

This is it really, there's just not going to be widespread adherence. It's not an option any more.

Depends if there is a new variant and how deadly it is. People will comply I am sure if that is the case.

There comes a point where a disease is sufficiently deadly to the population as a whole to make people stay out of the way even when it endangers their livelihoods, sure, but nothing we've seen with covid so far would get anywhere close. Especially now we have vaccines. It's not at all likely.

I was watching Sky News at 3 am on Saturday night, can't sleep covid cough relentless, and they were showing some reports from different points in the pandemic.

I had forgotten how scary some of it was, they were showing India with people dying on hospital steps and families queuing for hours to buy oxygen tanks from industrial suppliers. A young woman, a teenager I'd think, was crying as her parents had died, she was left to bring up her younger siblings and didn't know what she'd do.

Then it was Brazil, they showed a dad with two preschoolers and his new born child, his wife had died from covid. His mother in law was helping him but it was heartbreaking seeing his lovely little boys and the beautiful new baby and thinking of all the family was going to miss.

I was shocked at how much I'd forgotten but maybe that is covid brain.

Ah yeah awful. Currently having similar images but all down to a Russian psyco.

It'll be interesting for covid rates for the next few days now lft's aren't free for most.

Worth remembering this, ancientgran: factcheck.afp.com/covid-19-real-images-wrong-context

In fairness there have also been plenty of silly pieces denying the genuine horrors Covid's brought, but as ever it's worth remembering that the media doesn't always behave responsibly