that is one brave doctor

[MrsLargeEmbodied]

to speak about not having the vaccination
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/08/nhs-doctor-challenges-sajid-javid-over-covid-vaccination-rules

he has had a lot of support

@leafyygreens

I'm always a bit baffled by attitudes such as yours.

I don't know if I agree with what Dr Vanden Bossche says and certainly I don't have the education in immunology or virology or vaccinology to fully comprehend the mechanisms that he invokes in his theory. Perhaps you do. In which case if you explain to me why his theory is flawed I will take on board what you say and consider it carefully.

But all you have done is say he "doesn't count" because he is "not qualified". Anyone can do as I have done and google him and it is perfectly obvious that he is qualified to hypothesize on the covid vaccine programme.

You say: He gained a wet lab PhD in the 80s (not in epidemiology, vaccine biology, immunology or something relevant)

What is a "wet lab PhD"? (I know what a wet lab is but you seem to think that a "wet lab PhD" is crap so perhaps you could explain why.)

What is wrong with PhDs from the 80s??? Was there something going on in academia in the 80s which makes PhDs from then dodgy?

According to his CV his PhD thesis was on “Colloidal Aspects of Enteroviral Infectivity in Aqueous Environments with special emphasis on poliovirus type 1". Which is virology, right? Which is a relevant field when hypothesizing on viruses, no?

You say: He does not work a research scientist, but in management roles. You have copied and posted a load of information from somewhere, reeling off the organisations he has worked for, but not as a scientist.

I looked up his CV. It is 16 pages long. and includes many roles in the research and development of vaccines (as well as other research roles). You are right that he has also worked in management - of vaccine research and development programmes. But I'm not sure why that makes him anything other than even more qualified to comment on the management of vaccine programmes...

You say: in addition - the claims he are making are not evidence based, so it doesn't really matter.

Can you expand on this? Because it doesn't really make much sense. We cannot have evidence and research on how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic developed / ended up as it is happening now and has never happened before. One cannot research something that hasn't happened yet. You seem to be asking for the impossible and then dismissing Dr Vanden Bossche for not providing it!

Are you saying that there is no biologically plausible mechanism for mass vaccination with non sterilizing vaccines during a pandemic to impact the selective process of the mutants that will emerge as dominant?

You say: But the fact that you continue to quote Robert Malone says it all really!

I haven't quoted Dr Malone let alone "continued" to. But if I had, why would that "say it all"?

@beachcomber

What is a "wet lab PhD"? (I know what a wet lab is but you seem to think that a "wet lab PhD" is crap so perhaps you could explain why.)

If you know what wet lab PhD is, why are you asking me to define it?

No obviously wet lab (i.e., bench work such as molecular bio) isn't "crap", it's an integral part of research. But it isn't epidemiology or a field that you need to have expertise in to predict how a vaccine will impact transmission.

I haven't quoted Dr Malone let alone "continued" to. But if I had, why would that "say it all"?
You referenced Malone on the page previous, saying he is agreement with Bossche? It "says it all" because I have seen many posters explain to you, and others, the issues with him and his claims. He has continued to spread misinformation throughout the pandemic, which again, is not evidence based. And yet you continue to reference him as if he's viable source?

Can you expand on this? Because it doesn't really make much sense. We cannot have evidence and research on how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic developed / ended up as it is happening now and has never happened before.

Again - this has been explained to you before, multiple times. And better scientists than me have explained it too, you only need to do a websearch.

A virus can only mutate when it is replicating. It can only replicate when it is within a host. Vaccines (imperfect as they are) reduce the number of infections, and the time it takes to clear the viral particles in individuals, thus reducing the number of chances the virus has to mutate. Vaccines therefore reduce the likelihood of new variants emerging, they don't increase them. It is this logic that has led scientists to speculate new variants have emerged in immunocompromised patients - because the virus remains uncleared for a longer time period.

If the vast majority of scientists (with the exception of anti-vaccine pseudoscience peddlers like Mike Yeadon, Malone, Vanden Bossche) agree that vaccination of the general population is the best way to minimise the risk of new variants, do you not think at some point they would have considered these points? Or you think this has somehow gone unnoticed by these hundreds of experts, with decades of experience and expertise?

Indeed @Beachcomber, why do you cling onto the minority of people who make these claims, ignoring the fact for every one Vanden Bossche, there are thousands of expert scientists who disagree?

@leafyygreens

You seem to have me confused with another poster.

Anyway, thanks for replying. I'm not sure if you intended the following in reply to my question on Dr Vanden Bossche's theory on how mass vaccination could impact the evolution of the pandemic but it doesn't answer my question. So I'm still in the dark as to why you think his theory is wrong.

A virus can only mutate when it is replicating. It can only replicate when it is within a host. Vaccines (imperfect as they are) reduce the number of infections, and the time it takes to clear the viral particles in individuals, thus reducing the number of chances the virus has to mutate. Vaccines therefore reduce the likelihood of new variants emerging, they don't increase them.

As I understand it, Dr Vanden Bossche's theory is that non sterilizing vaccines being used in a pandemic situation will give a competitive advantage to vaccine resistant mutants. That is that vaccines which do not prevent infection and transmission have an impact on the natural selection of the mutations which will emerge as successful.

I understand what you are saying about vaccines reducing the number and length of infections and thereby the opportunity for a virus to replicate and therefore mutate. But that does not address his theory - his theory is not so much about the opportunity for mutation but more about the success of a mutation once it has occurred (that mutations occur despite vaccination is a given).

I have clearly stated that I do not know if I agree with this theory and that I would like it to be wrong so I'm hardly "clinging onto" it / him / anyone who agrees with him.

I would like it to be wrong because I would like the covid pandemic to be over and I hoped that vaccines would play a huge role in making that happen. But I am concerned that if Omicron is vaccine resistant that gives weight to Vanden Bossche's theory and that worries me.

Which is why I am really interested in why you think that he is so wrong. But unfortunately you haven't addressed his theory.

There’s plenty of research/theory (from the pre-Covid censorship era) around the risk of leaky vaccines causing more serious mutations…

Readable article about it here: www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715#What-We-Learned-from-Chickens

[quote Beachcomber]@leafyygreens

You seem to have me confused with another poster.

Anyway, thanks for replying. I'm not sure if you intended the following in reply to my question on Dr Vanden Bossche's theory on how mass vaccination could impact the evolution of the pandemic but it doesn't answer my question. So I'm still in the dark as to why you think his theory is wrong.

A virus can only mutate when it is replicating. It can only replicate when it is within a host. Vaccines (imperfect as they are) reduce the number of infections, and the time it takes to clear the viral particles in individuals, thus reducing the number of chances the virus has to mutate. Vaccines therefore reduce the likelihood of new variants emerging, they don't increase them.

As I understand it, Dr Vanden Bossche's theory is that non sterilizing vaccines being used in a pandemic situation will give a competitive advantage to vaccine resistant mutants. That is that vaccines which do not prevent infection and transmission have an impact on the natural selection of the mutations which will emerge as successful.

I understand what you are saying about vaccines reducing the number and length of infections and thereby the opportunity for a virus to replicate and therefore mutate. But that does not address his theory - his theory is not so much about the opportunity for mutation but more about the success of a mutation once it has occurred (that mutations occur despite vaccination is a given).

I have clearly stated that I do not know if I agree with this theory and that I would like it to be wrong so I'm hardly "clinging onto" it / him / anyone who agrees with him.

I would like it to be wrong because I would like the covid pandemic to be over and I hoped that vaccines would play a huge role in making that happen. But I am concerned that if Omicron is vaccine resistant that gives weight to Vanden Bossche's theory and that worries me.

Which is why I am really interested in why you think that he is so wrong. But unfortunately you haven't addressed his theory.[/quote]
@Beachcomber

I'll try again - no I really don't have you confused with someone else.

Viruses, particularly coronaviruses, have a relatively high mutatation rate. There is evolutionary drive to escape the immunity of the host organism, be that that immunity from a previous infection or from vaccinations.

In a situation with no-one vaccinated (as Van Bossche wants), the virus will rip through populations, with mutations that confer an advantage to escaping prior immunity favoured. New variants will emerge at a high rate, which indeed we saw prior to vaccines being introduced.

The only way to slow this process down, and reduce the risk of new variants, is to improve the level of immunity people have, in order to prevent new infections and help individuals clear those that they do have faster. This is done via vaccination.

Mutations allowing a selective advantage will occur with or without vaccination, however vaccination reduces this process, whilst also reducing overwhelmed healthcare, severe illness, and deaths. It is ridiculous to argue otherwise, as Van Bossche does.

His solution is that we shouldn't vaccinate anyone and that the current "killer vaccines" that will "doom humanity" should be replaced by his own super vaccine. Unfortunately, it doesn't exist and he hasn't started developing it, because he is not a research scientist who has this kind of expertise and hasn't been able to convince anyone else it is viable.

As I said, there is a reason he hasn't published anything since 1995.

In a situation with no-one vaccinated (as Van Bossche wants)

That isn't what he wants / advocates.

Mutations allowing a selective advantage will occur with or without vaccination, however vaccination reduces this process, whilst also reducing overwhelmed healthcare, severe illness, and deaths. It is ridiculous to argue otherwise, as Van Bossche does.

I understand his concern to be that current covid vaccines do not reduce the process enough as they allow too high levels of breakthrough infections plus they are being used on a mass scale during a pandemic phase when the virus is circulating at high levels (thus putting immense pressure on the natural selection process whilst failing to reduce circulation and therefore mutation enough). Dr Vanden Bossche is for vaccination for vulnerable populations in order to prevent severe disease, death and the overwhelming of health services.

His solution is that we shouldn't vaccinate anyone

No it isn't. His solution is that we should not mass vaccinate but should reserve the use of vaccinations (as they are non sterilizing and the virus is circulating at pandemic levels) to protect vulnerable populations from severe disease and death.

current "killer vaccines"

Have you ever actually read anything from him or listened to him speak? I get the feeling that what you think you know about him has come from reading online misrepresentations of what he says. He doesn't raise questions on vaccine safety let alone describe them as "killer". You put these words in inverted commas which imply that you are quoting him - this is total nonsense.

should be replaced by his own super vaccine.

More total nonsense.

So thanks for engaging but I suspect that we are wasting each other's time now. I thought that you had something substantial and reassuring to say on the subject but now I realize that your opinion is based on hearsay.

Have to be honest, this exchange seems very much like there is a topic that some people find very hard to see being discussed.

I don’t really see why the science wouldn’t be left to either succeed or fail of its own merits.

I can kind of see the public health danger, if we go back 12 or 18 months. (I don’t agree that it should have been a subversive topic, on the other hand we were in a very different spot back then.) But now?

Certainly it seems foolhardy in an unprecedented pandemic situation to shut down discussion and stifle the debate on the best way forward. Which is definitely what is happening. Anyone who deviates from the dogma is attacked and misrepresented.

I totally understand a desire on the part of both governments and citizens for there to be a simple straightforward solution and message but is that actually realistic? Or is it wishful thinking?

What appears to be happening with omicron is that in fact people are openly discussing it within the framework of Dr Vanden Bossche's theory. They just aren't mentioning him.

So they are discussing the outcome that his hypothesis predicted (the dominance of a highly mutated highly infectious vaccine resistant variant which also evades natural immunity and some monoclonal antibody treatments) whist either ignoring that this is what he said would happen or being ignorant of his theory as he has been painted as a nut job so people dismiss him without bothering to understand what he is actually saying.

I just did a 2 second search and plenty of results popped up such as this one. No mention of Vanden Bossche but this article is (no doubt without knowing it) discussing his theory.

www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220110/SARS-CoV-2-Omicron-variants-infectivity-vaccine-breakthrough-and-antibody-resistance.aspx

Listening to radio on this - midwife on why she hasn’t (antibodies high in an ongoing study)

RCN and RCM have asked for it to pause

Sajid not budging atm given recent address

But midwife concerned about staffing

RCM say it will have ‘catastrophic impact’ on midwife services

For more details of the findings.

www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220103/SARS-CoV-2-Omicron-variant-highly-resistant-to-vaccine-elicited-and-therapeutic-antibodies.aspx

@leafyygreens

As I said before - you appear to have me confused with another poster. (Or your personal attack on my posting history is made up.)

I find it quite frankly incredible that the government is trying to force healthcare staff to be vaccinated when they're not even providing them all ffp2 masks.

Vaccinated people can still spread the virus, but when two people are both wearing ffp2 the risk of transmission is massively reduced. It seems to me providing staff (and patients) with proper PPE might actually have more of an impact than vaccination (I obviously haven't done the risk assessment here - I'd be interested if anyone has).

Given the perilous staffing levels anyway, it does seem like they're doing everything they can to destroy the NHS.

I'm not really sure where I stand on mandatory vaccination for healthcare staff - I can see it may have merit when working with very vulnerable patients - but I do think that they should probably sort out proper PPE first and that it's rather hypocritical to be mandating vaccination - which reduces a little bit but does not stop transmission of covid - whilst simultaneously not providing proper grade PPE which does prevent transmission.

It makes it seem as if the push for vaccination isn't actually about infection control at all.

Yikes! The vaginal steaming sounds dangerous 😫

The odd world of the consulatant who got his facts wrong

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10404275/The-odd-world-consultant-took-Sajid-Javid-task-mandatory-jabs-NHS-staff.html

@Beachcomber

In a situation with no-one vaccinated (as Van Bossche wants)

That isn't what he wants / advocates.

Mutations allowing a selective advantage will occur with or without vaccination, however vaccination reduces this process, whilst also reducing overwhelmed healthcare, severe illness, and deaths. It is ridiculous to argue otherwise, as Van Bossche does.

I understand his concern to be that current covid vaccines do not reduce the process enough as they allow too high levels of breakthrough infections plus they are being used on a mass scale during a pandemic phase when the virus is circulating at high levels (thus putting immense pressure on the natural selection process whilst failing to reduce circulation and therefore mutation enough). Dr Vanden Bossche is for vaccination for vulnerable populations in order to prevent severe disease, death and the overwhelming of health services.

His solution is that we shouldn't vaccinate anyone

No it isn't. His solution is that we should not mass vaccinate but should reserve the use of vaccinations (as they are non sterilizing and the virus is circulating at pandemic levels) to protect vulnerable populations from severe disease and death.

current "killer vaccines"

Have you ever actually read anything from him or listened to him speak? I get the feeling that what you think you know about him has come from reading online misrepresentations of what he says. He doesn't raise questions on vaccine safety let alone describe them as "killer". You put these words in inverted commas which imply that you are quoting him - this is total nonsense.

should be replaced by his own super vaccine.

More total nonsense.

So thanks for engaging but I suspect that we are wasting each other's time now. I thought that you had something substantial and reassuring to say on the subject but now I realize that your opinion is based on hearsay.

Have you actually tried searching Vanden Bossche?

All these statements are in his open letter (or "manifesto" as he calls it), and his personal website details how he is planning to develop a universal vaccine that we should all be using.

Here's the quote about the "killer vaccines"

"there is not one second lef for gears to be switched and to replace the current killer vaccines by life-saving vaccines."

twitter.com/gvdbossche/status/1368232172872732675?lang=en

But sure, it wouldn't be a MN anti-vaccine thread without posters bringing up charlatans like Robert Malone, Sam White and Vanden Bossche, and repeating the nonsense they peddle.

Despite the fact that it has been dicussed, over and over, why these people are not making claims based in any kind of reality.

@MarshaBradyo

RCM say it will have ‘catastrophic impact’ on midwife services

Deeply concerning if so many midwives - who are supposed to be 'caring' for one of the Covid higher risk groups (pregnant women) aren't principled enough to take measures that help to protect their patients. And indeed themselves.

Who would want a midwife that doesn't trust in science and medicine?
Not very reassuring!

I find it quite frankly incredible that the government is trying to force healthcare staff to be vaccinated when they're not even providing them all ffp2 masks.

1. You can rest easy. Nobody's being forced. There are plans to introduce a policy of freedom... Which of course works both ways - or it wouldn't be freedom, because coercing and forcing employers to have unsuitable staff is anti freedom. Likewise coercing or forcing vulnerable patients to be around staff who don't care to protect them, and who don't believe in science and medicine.

Meanwhile the staff who don't trust or believe in science and medicine have the freedom to seek more appropriate alternative non science and medicine based employment.

1. Fighting a new (and possibly not completely natural) disease needs an arsenal rather than one single tool. So, yes staff (and indeed members of the public) should have FFP2 or FFP3 masks. They should also get vaccinated.

Add in good ventilation - HEPA filters or corsi-rosenthal boxes, and we're getting there.

Next up, getting the rest of the world vaccinated, gaining better knowledge and understanding of SARS-COV-2, and wider availability of the new antivirals and the monoclonal antibodies like sotrovimab.

Meanwhile the staff who don't trust or believe in science and medicine have the freedom to seek more appropriate alternative non science and medicine based employment. Sorry, but beggars can't be choosers. NHS is understaffed and it is better to have qualified, non vaccinated midwives than none at all. You fail to take into account the risk that comes from not having enough of staff to care for women in the first place.

There's nothing caring about refusing to take steps to protect vulnerable patients and get vaccinated.

Beggars can't be choosers? We can't just shrug and accept unsafe and inappropriate staff. That's very much not the answer.

Staff that don't believe in science and medicine working in science and medicine?

It would be funny if it wasn't so shocking.

A very shit situation for the poor patients either way. Short staffed or unsafe staff. Hobson's choice.

We urgently need to improve pay, working conditions, and training (plus recruitment practice, eg. I question the skills of someone who doesn't believe in science and medicine).

Continuing with the status quo is clearly unacceptable.

Hospitals should be places of care and safety for vulnerable patients.

It's particularly shocking that midwives are refusing to trust science and medicine. Given that pregnant women are one of the higher risk groups with Covid.

It's an appalling message... at a time when the NHS/government has launched a campaign to encourage vaccine take up amongst pregnant women.