Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

"patients in hospital in Scotland also accelerating"

Maybe cases have been quite considerably higher than reported - more so than usual, I mean.

Zoe also painting an interesting picture of covid levels in Scotland.

There’s normally a three to four week lag in big increases after schools go back, most noticeably in September. This is probably because of the way children mix in schools. Form groups, streaming, setting, friendship groups, transport and extra-curricular activities impose their own “bubbles” to a certain degree, that take a while to breach. I agree with Piggy that the numbers in two weeks’ time will be informative.

@borntobequiet

There’s normally a three to four week lag in big increases after schools go back, most noticeably in September. This is probably because of the way children mix in schools. Form groups, streaming, setting, friendship groups, transport and extra-curricular activities impose their own “bubbles” to a certain degree, that take a while to breach. I agree with Piggy that the numbers in two weeks’ time will be informative.

Do you think this will still be the case with Omicrom which spreads so quickly? We would expect more children to catch it with each exposure?

My kids school hasn't had much Covid at all. And in my kids classes attendance still seems to be pretty good. I can only imagine what Omicrom will do when it gets into the classes!

Do you think this will still be the case with Omicrom which spreads so quickly?

That’s why I said two weeks, not three or four.

what we were looking for was the rapid increase in cases from school mixing

Notice the purple line on this log scale graph.

That’s why I said two weeks, not three or four

6 generations of omicron? Seems unlikely what would limit the spread in the first few generations?

My kids school hasn't had much Covid at all. And in my kids classes attendance still seems to be pretty good. I can only imagine what Omicrom will do when it gets into the classes!

My daughter is in primary school. She had covid in December with about five others. Since they went back to school last Wednesday, so five teaching days, there are now 11 confirmed cases in her class, plus the teacher and at least two of the kids are reinfections.

Sorry, posted too soon. I know all this is anecdata but majority are asymptotic and only a few are poorly.

*asymptomatic

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Sorry, posted too soon. I know all this is anecdata but majority are asymptotic and only a few are poorly.

That's good news!

Also there are 2 big year groups who are not mixing almost at all: GCSE and A level years as they both have their mocks this week.
In our school they don't have classes, have reduced school hours (if only one test per day, otherwise longer) and are kept absolutely separate from others - even go to lunch in unusual times, just them.

a quick handful of health metric graphs for England.

Starting with deaths within 28 days by date of death, which is picking up to some extent.

but remains far below the levels last year and with a much shallower trajectory.

Overall patients in hospital, Dec-Jan comparator shows both daily figures and the seven day average

and hospital admissions overall in England

admissions and number in hospital by region just showing Dec-Jan for current and last year (eg 21/22 & 20/21).

Further the red and green lines from the black and blue ones the better.

Starting with East of England NHS region

London

Midlands

North East

North West

South East Strictly week 1 gapping

South West

Thank you @boys3 for your informative analysis. I'm wondering why the North appears to be harder hjt and approaching, or at, last year's levels. Clearly in 2021 we'd been in lockdown for a while by this point when now there are very few restrictions, so parity is an improvement in terms of how the population is coping with Covid, but apart from that, I'm thinking the North didn't have quite the rates of Alpha that London and the SE had.

I think I’m right in saying that the daily cases have been decreasing from their upward trajectory (or at least levelling off somewhat when looking at cases by reported date) since govt said no pcr required for positive lft. So, is this making stats less accurate as there could be increasing cases, just unreported? It feels very coincidental and the cases may not yet have translated to hospitalisations. Percentage positive, last time I saw, was increasing implying community cases increasing.