Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I would, but doubt most will.

Going back to the earlier discussion on Scottish ICU numbers, does anyone have data on percentage of cases by variant in Scotland. Could there be a rise in delta cases there?

The latest ONS survey indicates Scotland is 87% Omicron / 13% Delta. England is in the same ballpark - 88% Omicron / 12% Delta.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/7january2022

Of course, ONS information might be out of date. It might also be based on wide confidence intervals. The Delta curve in England seems to be going down faster than in Scotland so it is possible that Scotland might have seen a few Delta outbreaks that drove ICU numbers up.

RoyalFamilyFan Surely it's more faff to get a PCR test, you have to do all the same online stuff, and then get to a test place, or wait for the post then go the post box etc. It's a lot more hassle than sitting on your phone and just doing the online stuff?

All the people who got PCR confirmations today did more than they'll have to do tomorrow?

@sirfredfredgeorge

RoyalFamilyFan Surely it's more faff to get a PCR test, you have to do all the same online stuff, and then get to a test place, or wait for the post then go the post box etc. It's a lot more hassle than sitting on your phone and just doing the online stuff?

All the people who got PCR confirmations today did more than they'll have to do tomorrow?

Good point

The latest ONS survey indicates Scotland is 87% Omicron / 13% Delta. England is in the same ballpark - 88% Omicron / 12% Delta

We are only talking about less than a dozen cases in Scotland, it could be a single Delta outbreak in a care home, which is why a breakdown of hospitals would be useful.

@wintertravel1980

Going back to the earlier discussion on Scottish ICU numbers, does anyone have data on percentage of cases by variant in Scotland. Could there be a rise in delta cases there?

The latest ONS survey indicates Scotland is 87% Omicron / 13% Delta. England is in the same ballpark - 88% Omicron / 12% Delta.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/7january2022

Of course, ONS information might be out of date. It might also be based on wide confidence intervals. The Delta curve in England seems to be going down faster than in Scotland so it is possible that Scotland might have seen a few Delta outbreaks that drove ICU numbers up.

I've found this from the latest Scottish government report. There was 91.1% omicron up to 5th January, so unlikely the increase is due to delta.

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-state-epidemic-07-january-2022/

@sirfredfredgeorge

The latest ONS survey indicates Scotland is 87% Omicron / 13% Delta. England is in the same ballpark - 88% Omicron / 12% Delta

We are only talking about less than a dozen cases in Scotland, it could be a single Delta outbreak in a care home, which is why a breakdown of hospitals would be useful.

Yes the rise in numbers is small; mid December was averaging on about 35 in icu and this has risen to 52. Hopefully the rise won't continue.

379 deaths reported today, highest since last February… was hoping it was going to start coming down not going up

Case rates falling nicely though

@SecretKeeper1

379 deaths reported today, highest since last February… was hoping it was going to start coming down not going up

Don't look at the reported numbers, far better to look at the dates they actually happen - there's likely to still be some catching up from the holiday period in terms of reporting at the moment. In terms of date the deaths happened, its similar to the end of October.

Regarding Scotland, there are breakdowns by health board available on www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/, though it's quite limited information given that all but 5 regions still have fewer than 5 in ICU (therefore shown as *)

54 total in ICU, which is still fewer than November.

Why is France hitting 350k though?

So yesterday's LFD's for London - no increase, so this should've been the day that the kids who went to school and caught it last week, picked it up in their weekly testing. Monday's were the big day we saw in September's return to school. So it not happening indicates the explosion of cases is not going to happen from schools returning to me, you could of course say "early days", but given the very limited mitigations in returning to school, just LFD's and a few masks which the news says the kids are ignoring, I don't really buy it.

A big fall in London patients in hospital, likely confirming the "people aren't discharged as much at weekends" hypothesis, admissions still falling slower (but we're two more days lagged on that compared to in patients)

Smaller fall for England, showing that cases are still rising in places I'm sure, but ventilation beds still declining (lowest number since mid October in England)

No further increase in the more concerning Scottish ventilation beds, but it's still concerning why the different pattern compared to England, patients in hospital in Scotland also accelerating.

Wales much more like England but lagged, cases up, but not obviously serious ones.

All positive other than the Scottish question to me.

@Quartz2208

Why is France hitting 350k though?

Possibly because they kept their numbers lower than we did over the autumn??? Very possible that delta is more protective of symptomatic infection than thought, even with the numbers of lfts we do, we have no way of knowing how many people there are out there with asymptomatic infections

Why is France hitting 350k though

Does anyone know how testing works there? Different LFD's, any routine PCR's or anything? It is certainly a large amount compared to the UK, however remember lots of other countries don't have the capacity and are rationing tests, Canada has an "official" rate of under 700 per 100k I think, but that's 'cos no-one can test almost certainly, no-one has a clue what the real rate is.

So it's possible that France has a rate similar to many other countries who have avoided any other significant wave (so little non-vaccine immunity to dampen spread) and we simply don't know about them? Denmark's rate is not much lower and they've almost certainly spread out their cases more than france here, and obviously are significantly more boosted.

The number of staff and pupils off schools doesn't necessarily marry with this though- higher than on December 16th.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-59950903

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

Here the testing rate of France though higher than other places in Europe seems to be fairly similar to our testing though.

Regarding the school attendance figures for staff and pupils, I know a good 4 cases at my daughter's school that are still off or only just returned after being infected over the holidays.

Mi understanding re france is that on the whole home use lateral flow tests sit outside their testing system so some schools, companies issue them but they are not recorded through official channels and you get one because of the school, employer not because you want to test before going to see grandma etc as in the U.K. what that means for supply I don’t know. You can separately pay for a lateral flow done through a pharmacy but you pay so few done. Otherwise testing is for sympathetic/ close contacts only and these are the main ones that make it into their figures.

Piggy that is what we'd expect? The case rates over the last 10 days are much higher than the case rates up until the 16th, so we'd expect more people off - remember the thing we were looking for was the rapid increase in cases from school mixing, so far there is no evidence of this, and given other previous intervals between mixing and case peaks with omicron we should be seeing the LFD's arrive.

The schools' data is snapshot data from one day - 6th January so yes holiday acquired infection, chiefly (but also results of in school LFTs at secondary)

They will do it again in two weeks and that will be illuminating I think.

Otherwise testing is for sympathetic/ close contacts only and these are the main ones that make it into their figures

So close contact testing would show a high detection rate if people did - and I've just realised the (relatively) low vaccine number and covid pass restrictions will encourage people to get tested, because it's absolutely essential to them to have the positive case recorded or they are denied access to places, so it probably drives higher detection rates, particularly among the unvaccinated - do they provide vaccinated / unvaccinated counts?

Interestingly, Yorkshire and the NE had the lowest staff/pupil absence rates....

As to why do high maintenance hypothesis would be
-less testing of asympathetic cases compared to U.K. (basically that operation moonshot is working!)

• less delta wave which provides less immunity
• behavioural differences, in france vaccine passports/ masks make people feel safe so there is less “not going out” individuals locking themselves down than in the U.K. (only my theory no evidence to back this up!)

george France has a better vaccination rate than is?

I think Delta and Boosters are key for why its worse in France. Frances booster rate isn't bad, but timing has benefited us. And of course we have had a shit load of Delta infections.

I think France case numbers does include LFTs also.