Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's pretty strange difference in Scotland, given the London experience where they never went up at all, it's not as if we saw this in London.

Influenza or something spreading at the same time?

Is there a hospital breakdown anywhere?

Scotland will have a different demographics to London. It also is not known for its good diet.

www.statista.com/statistics/367796/uk-median-age-by-region/

Average age per region

Scotland will have a different demographics to London. It also is not known for its good diet

I think that would be an explanation for the ratio of the cases to icu admission, but I'm not so sure it should explain the difference when there was no increase in ICU admission in London, there are plenty of vulnerable people in London, how did almost none of them end up in icu for long?

The positivity rate in Wales is 40%ish down from 50%ish. I have a theory about this. I think people are not going for pcrs if symptomatic as much but relying on lifts. If these are positive they are going for the test thus reducing the numbers of negative pcrs and skewering the figures. Also if pcrs are no longer required for close asymptomatic contacts this will also decrease the numbers of negative pcrs and increase the proportion of positive tests. Obviously it also reflects the high community prevalence we have.
As to Scotlands ITU occupancy? It was as high as 100 in October with delta and much lower case numbers so I don't think this is too concerning, given the low numbers generally.
I am however neither an epidemiologist, virologist or statistician, so my opinion should be treated with extreme caution.......

Oh good grief.
LFTs not lifts
Skewing not skewering.
I'm going to gracefully retire.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Scotland will have a different demographics to London. It also is not known for its good diet

I think that would be an explanation for the ratio of the cases to icu admission, but I'm not so sure it should explain the difference when there was no increase in ICU admission in London, there are plenty of vulnerable people in London, how did almost none of them end up in icu for long?

London doesn't feature in the top UK rankings for regional obesity, perhaps this helps too?

It also has a higher proportion of immigrants who may be fitter, younger and healthier than average, but possibly more likely to be unvaccinated? So more likely to catch Covid but not so likely to end up in ICU?

Scotland will have a different demographics to London. It also is not known for its good diet.

Wow, that's a generalisation for a whole country!!

Breaking this down into health authorities might be more revealing.

I thought people from minority ethnic backgrounds were disproportionately more likely to end up in ICU?

It's not really a generalisation though. The Scottish diet is not as good as it should be. Obviously it does vary and some lead a very healthy life and others don't. But you only need to go and find some statistics and you can find that our for yourself.

Or be Scottish. Like me.

Or be Scottish. Like me

Its really not as unique as you think. Lots of us are.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

Or be Scottish. Like me

Its really not as unique as you think. Lots of us are.

I'm not.

I didn't suggest being Scottish was unique! What I did say was a breakdown of health authorities would be instructive. There is a huge difference between urban Glasgow and the Highlands and Islands. Generalisations help no one reach any conclusions.

London still falling cases, no increase in sunday LFT's (although obviously today is the day when kids exposed last week would likely first test before going back to school)

Another small increase in London hospital beds, I expect that to go down in tomorrows announcement and it's just a weekend delay, but we'll see, no increase still in ventilation beds.

Only 1 extra Scottish ventilation bed but it's still high, I don't think we can say it's purely about added risk, the rises elsewhere show no rise at all, regardless of the risk of the locals, it must be something else.

A lot of PCR results delayed though - 4 Jan UK cases are now up to 242,000, whereas on the day it was 218,000.

In England 6,000 added on 203,000, so that's 3% of the cases, I think that's a bit higher than historical, boys obviously normally has the data to say for sure, but it's still a pretty small number overall, and it was the peak day for cases caught on NYE mixing so lots of people needing a test!

The other good news in the English data is that cases are falling faster in the older age groups it seems - the age data is obviously a bit lagged, but older age groups falling, school age groups rising, obviously I suspect this is due to higher detection in school kids due to more asymptotic testing, but whatever the reason the older (a good proxy for more vulnerable) falling faster is positive.

@sirfredfredgeorge

The other good news in the English data is that cases are falling faster in the older age groups it seems - the age data is obviously a bit lagged, but older age groups falling, school age groups rising, obviously I suspect this is due to higher detection in school kids due to more asymptotic testing, but whatever the reason the older (a good proxy for more vulnerable) falling faster is positive.

That is good news. Could it also be because Christmas is a particularly risky time for older people (much contact with younger generations), and new year's eve and return to work much less so?

@Firefliess I'm sure you're right for the very oldest, but it's falling in the older working age group too. Could be obviously slightly skewed by so many of the post christmas day mixing leaving the 7 day rates (the peak from particular days is mixing is so pronounced with omicron!) and how very much higher that would've been in the more vulnerable.

This French data reports hospitalisation by variant:
mobile.twitter.com/nicolasberrod/status/1480592674956709895

Of note:
19% of patients infected with Delta and 43% of those infected with Omicron remained in care for less than a day.

In addition, "the probability of seeking critical care (either directly or after going through conventional hospitalization) is three times higher in patients infected with the Delta variant than with the Omicron variant."

Going back to the earlier discussion on Scottish ICU numbers, does anyone have data on percentage of cases by variant in Scotland. Could there be a rise in delta cases there?

I love this variant animation:
twitter.com/i/status/1480600931364442114

Can someone explain again in the most basic terms why the relaxation on tests ( ie do l ft if symptomatic then register results - who will bother ? ) will not affect the data on current situation ?

Because people who go to the effort to do a lateral flow and who would have gone on to have a confirmation pcr probably “know the rules” enough to report the positive lft. Some may not but some were taking and not doing confirmation pcrs before, some are not testing even with systems (always the case). So the change is someone who is motivated enough to test on lft would have been motivated enough to get a confirmation pcr, now goes but now I will not report my lateral flow. Some won’t but I think the idea lots will not isn’t really backed up (and there were 1.8 million tests yesterday so as always I have to say that to me is evidence people are testing and certainly a fair few reporting!)

@Dghgcotcitc I think a lot of people will not report ltf. I know I wont, it is a lot of faff.

But the rule change doesn't start until tomorrow, the 11th I thought?

You wouldn’t report a positive LFT?