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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

992 replies

boys3 · 01/01/2022 18:49

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
230
lonelyplanet · 08/01/2022 17:27

Positive looking hospital data:
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1479858475744305154
Headlines in case you can't open the link:
"With a Sat update from NHS England, we can see further falls in the growth in 7 day average of admissions, compared with a week earlier.
5 of the 7 regions were down on a week ago today, Midlands and NE/Yorks the outliers."

sirfredfredgeorge · 08/01/2022 17:54

@Jangly Thanks for the re-infections, not sure how "about 10%" comes up though?

0.14/(11.3 - 9.7+0.14) is 8%

Still well outside Ferguson's claim?

sirfredfredgeorge · 08/01/2022 17:56

Healthcare certainly looking positive in London, 180 drop.

It was only the 15th of December when admissions got that high, the average stay in hospital for these admissions must be a lot lower than previous waves. Of course that doesn't tell us how many serious cases (but not yet ventilated) there are.

lonelyplanet · 08/01/2022 18:44

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@Jangly Thanks for the re-infections, not sure how "about 10%" comes up though?

0.14/(11.3 - 9.7+0.14) is 8%

Still well outside Ferguson's claim?[/quote]
Up to 10% reinfections is the figure in the latest surveillance report.
covidactuaries.org/2022/01/07/the-friday-report-issue-58/

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
sirfredfredgeorge · 08/01/2022 18:50

lonely yes, but then they give the actual numbers, and it's nowhere near 10%, so what does "up to 10%" mean? It's 8% but we'll up it by 25% so that it sounds different? Or are they making some assumptions / modelling on the number of undetected cases in previous etc.

Or do they have some completely different definition of cases than the dashboard?

InMySpareTime · 08/01/2022 19:36

Perhaps they're estimating reinfections of first wave mild cases, which were rarely confirmed by testing.
My dad is one of those, classic symptoms in April 2020 but no tests available, reinfected this Christmas confirmed by PCR.

boys3 · 08/01/2022 19:45

Regional rates per 100,00 in England.

This is London - overall, and by inner and outer boroughs.

Essentially flat. The merest hint on an uptick in the seven days to 4th Jan; however rather like Dec 29th , Jan 4th, the first working day of the new year looks to be something of a catch up day; with cases for that day likely to end up pretty close the where the 29th now is (just under 200,000). So I would not read too much into that yet - a few more days needed to get a better indication of trajectory.

The peak on this graph is 2418 per 100,000 for Inner London on 20th December. Worth remembering when we get to the North East and North West.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
boys3 · 08/01/2022 19:49

North West, North East, East and East Midlands

Rate in the North West at 2395 per 100,000 just below the inner London peak.

North East close to 2300

The other two regions at lower levels, but on an upward trajectory still. East Mids more sharply that East of England.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
boys3 · 08/01/2022 19:50

and the remaining four

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 08/01/2022 19:51

Perhaps they're estimating reinfections of first wave mild cases, which were rarely confirmed by testing

That would be interesting (and a reasonable thing to do), but then it would be astonishing if it was only "up to 10%" as that means they're detecting 80 odd percent of re-infections. And whilst I do think you're probably a bit more likely to test positive if you've tested positive before (as in if you're positive, detecting the second case is more likely if you detected the first because you've already shown you're motivated to test etc.), But I don't logically think the rate would be that high, that's super high. I'd've actually thought it would still be much around the 50% mark of case detection that's been implied in the seroprevalence reports.

France is astonishing numbers I think, I thought they had a reputation for low compliance with covid, but reported over 300,000 cases today? (no obvious lag as that's just a small growth from others) You would've thought detection would not be that high in the reputation?

Germany has certainly joined Netherlands with rapid growth despite lockdown. Still haven't been able to find anything on if this is general disobedience on the rules or that the rules are not enough.

lonelyplanet · 09/01/2022 11:21

Oliver Johnson’s take on where we are:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1480111289221451776.html

containsnuts · 09/01/2022 11:39

[quote lonelyplanet]Oliver Johnson’s take on where we are:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1480111289221451776.html[/quote]
So the concern is that we might not have a dramatic drop, rather, it could trundle along a fairly high levels for a period of time similar to what happened in the summer?

If that is the case, when do the NHS get time to catch-up on all the cancelled treatments? The backlog will continue to snowball for some yet.

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/01/2022 11:53

I think the "prolonged peak" is because of the much higher detection rate in England compared to south africa, any high detection lengthens the time of the peak UNLESS detecting cases is pointless as a mitigation.

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/01/2022 13:30

Please someone shed some light on this. I am missing something or am totally stupid?
on the gov website positivity rate in early jan is about 33% for England, no data on the other 3 nations. But have read similar percentages. here, there and everywhere.

How can that translate into a 10% overall UK wide positivity rate?
Even if all others were 0% this doesn't feel right, and we know it is not 0%.
I genuinely don't understand.

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/01/2022 14:10

Where do you get the "10% overall UK wide positivity rate" from?

I suspect that might be the figure that is wrong?

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/01/2022 15:39

ourworldindata site

PolkaDot456 · 09/01/2022 15:47

@boys3

Regional rates per 100,00 in England.

This is London - overall, and by inner and outer boroughs.

Essentially flat. The merest hint on an uptick in the seven days to 4th Jan; however rather like Dec 29th , Jan 4th, the first working day of the new year looks to be something of a catch up day; with cases for that day likely to end up pretty close the where the 29th now is (just under 200,000). So I would not read too much into that yet - a few more days needed to get a better indication of trajectory.

The peak on this graph is 2418 per 100,000 for Inner London on 20th December. Worth remembering when we get to the North East and North West.

North East Close to 2300. I'm in NE, anecdotally know a lot of people who are isolating as a pos case so potentially peaking this week?
sirfredfredgeorge · 09/01/2022 15:51

Ah, so yes, that's simply that they're bunging in all the LFD tests, most countries don't register LFD tests in the same way, and LFD positive is entirely dubious (as lots of people even if negative wouldn't actually register the test anyway, and many countries don't provide them a mechanism to report anyway.

Psitivity when everyone had similar criteria for testing and registering was a useful comparison, now it's not, countries have all sorts of different requirements for testing (they always did of course, but originally say Germany's "doctor books if you have symptoms" and UK's "you book if you have symptoms" are quite a bit more similar than what we have now with different countries having to manage capacity in different ways against omicron, and of course LFD's which may or may not be registered.

TL; DR; Our positivity isn't 10% but then neither is it 33% they're simply measuring different things.

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/01/2022 16:15

Slight rise in patients in hospital in London - I believe this is just the normal fewer discharges on a sunday but could be wrong of course (we'll not know until the admission figures arrive in a couple of days), still over 100 down on Friday.

Nothing unexpected in the figures that should worry that I can see.

containsnuts · 09/01/2022 16:39

Patients in mechanical ventilation beds-

Down in England but up in Scotland. Any ideas? Confused

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
lonelyplanet · 09/01/2022 17:22

@containsnuts

Patients in mechanical ventilation beds-

Down in England but up in Scotland. Any ideas? Confused

Not sure why, but this is from their weekly surveillance report: In the week ending 26 December 2021 there were 31 new admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) for confirmed COVID-19. This is an increase of 29.1% from the week ending 19 December 2021.

publichealthscotland.scot/publications/covid-19-statistical-report/covid-19-statistical-report-7-january-2022/

MarshaBradyo · 09/01/2022 17:24

Pre peak v post?

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/01/2022 17:28

It's pretty strange difference in Scotland, given the London experience where they never went up at all, it's not as if we saw this in London.

Influenza or something spreading at the same time?

Is there a hospital breakdown anywhere?

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/01/2022 19:34

US with it's 700thousand cases, also appears to have quite a lot of scam sites e.g.:
missionlocal.org/2022/01/new-testing-site-claims-legitimacy-but-cant-produce-permit/
(go to poor area, offer free test, collect the cash from the government for doing the test, never bother with any test)

Now I'm completely not believing it's worthwhile attempting to detect all these cases, but it absolutely is important that any vulnerable peoples cases are picked up, so it's a pretty horrible sort of scam.

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