BTW, I don't think people mis-representing data is "being cautious", it's misrepresenting data, you can combine that with reasons why it might not be true, but misrepresenting predictions and data is not the clear, unambiguous, information provision that every bit of research says is essential in public health messaging.
"It could peak any time from 5 to 20 days in Wales, we just don't know exactly, but it's certainly still rising now" would be a good message. 10-14 days is the same bad sort of message as 2million cases a day or 6000 deaths or other extreme ends of the possible scenarios being presented to the public as the single one.
@DollyStardust Predicting your local area is not that easy, because every area tends to detect more or less cases depending on local issues. It seems that the more unhealthy (health deprivation score) or more "student" the local council is the higher the detected rate, so if you're in an unhealthy area or a student area it'll be a higher overall number (cases in whole pandemic) so you might be able to get an idea with that, So Knowsley (deprived) is possibly not yet peaking despite having had 28% of the population detected cases, whereas many London have at 22% or 23% This complicates things on predicting individual area - especially if there is also some other local issue like big employers having specific testing regimes etc.
One I think I'd say is that no areas can sustain a rate over 4000 in there young adults for more than a week and they'll likely start falling first. However schools are back now so things could change there too. Basically all too tricky.
R4 PM Programme coming live from the Royal Berkshire Hospital in Reading. Just interviews Steve McManus the Chief Exec. Some of interesting stats: they currently have 96(?) covid patients, of whom 8 in ICU; 51 in virtual wards, I think in addition to the 96, they way he phrased it
Hmm, Latest data was 75 "all covid patients" and 5 in ICU for the royal Berkshire trust, I assume the hospital doesn't cover two trusts, but that doesn't really help us answer if the virtual wards are in addition, as even the 75 doesn't tally with the 96, but maybe it says that virtual aren't counted, and there was an alarming number of admissions today?