Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Australia 72k+ cases! That’s high, given the population.

a tale of two cities, or in this case two views of a single city.

A largely positive view of London in terms of direction

and whilst not quite the worst of times this rather less positive

I saw today that China is racing to develop its own mRNA vaccines.

Fred although positive people may isolate there's no real incentive to log, is there - unless you're trying to claim the isolation grant?

Well phrased as usual, boys...

Sorry to go off-topic but does MRrex not post on these threads any more?

@abra1d1

Australia 72k+ cases! That’s high, given the population.

That is high

I looked at hospitalisation but can’t tell what capacity it is at

@boys3

and whilst not quite the worst of times this rather less positive

Interesting how it goes up with the ages from 50+. Is this similar to other waves or could it indicate boosters waning since older ages will have been boosted earlier?

She became a bit sporadic a couple of months ago and only recently seems to have disappeared completely, maybe she'll come back?

Fred, imagine someone testing so that they can see a loved one. They test positive so don't go which is great but they don't log it because they don't see the personal benefit to them.

I have a horrid feeling cases will plummet next week and this will be why. Though I guess we can extrapolate based on hosp numbers. One saving grace is that it does appear to be temp suspension while cases are so high.

@Quarantino

Sorry to go off-topic but does MRrex not post on these threads any more?

she said a few weeks back that she'd be stepping back for a while. Hopefully temporary as she made many excellent contributions

JanglyBeads
Quarantino

There was a post from MRrex a few weeks ago about taking a break from the thread. Hopefully we'll hear again soon.

Thanks all. I'm also still missing BigChocFrenzy!

Fred although positive people may isolate there's no real incentive to log, is there - unless you're trying to claim the isolation grant?

I'm not convinced there's any personal incentive to test at all (we're talking symptomless testing here remember, with symptoms no advice has changed) but if you have chosen to test, then you're doing it for the general good aren't you? So you'd log it too for the same reason.

The "meeting loved one" scenario is possibly different - but then why if that was purely the reason would they have gone to the PCR anyway today, that seems like more hassle than simply registering the LFD?

Perhaps I have a rosy view on what people have done and will do in the general rather than personal good (and I'm hardly the most collectively responsible individual) Anyway, I guess we'll find out!

Not sure I agree on Australia being that high yet, a 1/3rd of the rate of Denmark isn't it and their testing is pretty robust? I think it's got a lot more growth to go!

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/hospitals-outside-london-expect-more-covid-patients-than-last-january

Ignoring the typically inept Graun journalism part way through (mislabelling the UK patients total today as that for just England) pertinent set of point from Chris Hopson, chief exec of NHS Providers.

To be fair to the Graun their level of regular ineptitude is matched or regularly exceeded by all the other papers - credit due to them for at least provinding free access still. Even if they are clearly taking Peter Cook rather too literally.

Anyway Apprentice over; no spoilers (as I have learned from my mistakes in that respect) so some case rate graphs for places upon which I've never really given much attention.

So here are Warwickshire and Worcestershire

Staffordshire

People test to protect those around them - family/colleagues/ the girls at the till in Tesco, but won't necessarily think about the wider community, and therefore won't log?

Don't know, as you say, we're about to find out.

But there will be so many other variables, eg relying more on LFT 'because the government have said you can' - people were already doing it anyway - "I have a cough but I've tested and it's not Covid, don't worry!"

Derbyshire

Chesterfield a bit of an eye-opener

These graphs tell their own sad story too:



Sorry

twitter.com/paulnuki/status/1479150571332542467?s=21

Lincolnshire and Norfolk - multiple Hospital Trust critical incidents declared; although covid rates not overly excessive relative to some areas (yet) - likely the more rural challenges around staff being either off-sick or having to isolate. Likely general recruitment challenges in parts of these areas before covid came along too.

North Yorkshire

unitary councils in East so our old friend Central Bedfordshire gets a look in.

Southend and Thurrock both flattened considerably largely from Christmas onwards.

North East councils, some very sharp rises (as also seen with hospital numbers) with a number of councils up around the 2800 per 100,000 rate (eg higher than many Inner London Boroughs peaked at)

all the various larger councils in Yorkshire and Humber region (ie those not fortunate enough to be in north Yorkshire)

Hospital data not looking so good.
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1479399900815273986