Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I suppose you’ll get some not keen on boosters so more individual choice than supply / organisation

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/hospitals-outside-london-expect-more-covid-patients-than-last-january
Article saying that some regions are expecting numbers in hospital to be £130 of last January's peak.

Of the approx. 45 million who are within the 3 month window, approx. 35 million have been done. That's 78% which is pretty good

And if we assume boosters are effective at preventing infection, then a high proportion of the over 3 million cases we've had in the last 28 days would be in the unboosted, in which case it's even higher.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Denmark may not have peaked, as it rose again today, perhaps longer NYE break than I thought, although it's certainly not resumed an increase, just not so clearly falling.

One thing I hadn't noticed, Denmark do publish re-infections, and they're at less than the 10% Ferguson claims, around 7% the last few days.

Denmark have had significantly fewer infected than us? So I would expect reinfections to be lower since fewer people have had the virus?

I don't think its unreasonable to think that it will be a higher percentage in the UK - assuming its a percentage of positive cases?

Actually it's over 4 million isn't it, 3.5million cases in the last 28 days, plus Ferguson's 15% re-infections, so that's up to 8% of people not eligible for a booster due to recent infection. So over 85% potentially covered with the booster, I think that's great, I certainly know more than 15% of people who are declining it, so I would've anticipated lower.

💩 data (from a US state but still of interest here):

twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1479134501892722688?s=21

Whilst we have s hell of a lot of cases - it's not as bad as some European countries. Is it reasonable to suggest that boosters are playing at important part in this? Or is it because we have had so many Delta cases recently. It would be interesting to know. I know our testing has been struggling lately but I still think we find more cases than a lot of countries?

Florida had something similar 3 or so weeks ago Janglybeads so it doesnt surprise me.

I was there over Christmas and their testing is nothing like ours - no LFT in the household all via testing centres. Massively undercounting of cases

Jangly The only way I can resolve the information on vaccine effectiveness, reinfection effectiveness and case rates and the peaking in regions is if there's actually an awful lot more omicron around than expected, and there are simply people who are never infectious enough to trigger any test. So I think the waste water data is very believable, of course if that is the reason, then it's even better news as it means omicron is mild enough in so many more people that they simply don't notice. It also explains why isolation mitigations seem to make no difference, there's a lot more people spreading low amounts of virus around.

@InMySpareTime

Re. ONS, they keep you on after infection, DS caught Covid in November and has done a couple more ONS swabs since then. They do always ask about testing and whether you've had Covid/Long Covid, so I assume they're set up for post-infection households.

Yep, we are an ONS family, been in since Aug 2020, 5 out of 6 of us now had covid, most recently in July - still getting monthly swabs and antibody tests.

Yes Fred. I've wondered that all the way through (for reasons that I can't remember at the moment cos am too tired...)

@Quartz2208

Florida had something similar 3 or so weeks ago Janglybeads so it doesnt surprise me.

I was there over Christmas and their testing is nothing like ours - no LFT in the household all via testing centres. Massively undercounting of cases

Like in this video of early hours queueing you mean?

twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1479151250667151362?s=21

Yes it has been like that since Christmas @JanglyBeads

They have no available LFT to hand out to test at home so it is all done at test centres. Orange County had two free covid testing centres until New Year (population 1.4 million) then it opened its 3rd and queues have been like since it opened.

It was an eye opener actually as to how different it was - very much the reliance there is on masks and vaccines

abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/omicron-dominant-wastewater-samples-florida-county-81793644

The above is before cases had started to climb as well

@Ohsofedupwiththis

Whilst we have s hell of a lot of cases - it's not as bad as some European countries. Is it reasonable to suggest that boosters are playing at important part in this? Or is it because we have had so many Delta cases recently. It would be interesting to know. I know our testing has been struggling lately but I still think we find more cases than a lot of countries?

There was a suggestion two or three weeks ago that Az was proving more effective against re-infection than Pfizer. Something about a more substantial T cell response? I tried to follow it up but never found anything beyond the two or three sentences on the BBC live feed.

Motorina I think all the vaccines are equally poor at preventing infection, there's a possibility that AZ better against serious outcomes, but at the time particularly serious outcomes with omicron were rare that it the error margins on any of the conclusions would've been large, so I wouldn't read too much into those studies yet - all of the vaccines are good against serious outcomes.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

Whilst we have s hell of a lot of cases - it's not as bad as some European countries. Is it reasonable to suggest that boosters are playing at important part in this? Or is it because we have had so many Delta cases recently. It would be interesting to know. I know our testing has been struggling lately but I still think we find more cases than a lot of countries?

I can’t see why this wouldn’t be the case.

We are not more strict here with restrictions either

Russia is possibly going to be the one to look at, to decide if it's boosters or delta that made the difference, unless we get the vaccine status data on the cases.

Obviously Russia had a horrible delta wave, and (relatively) little vaccine let alone booster shots. So far there's been no hint of omicron like rises in their stats - which of course are also not necessarily as reliable as say Denmark's which won't help.

On the flip side there are some Aus states who have had zero delta but vaccine only

If it helps with comparison

@MarshaBradyo

On the flip side there are some Aus states who have had zero delta but vaccine only

If it helps with comparison

Pretty much zero any Covid before Omicron, not just Delta!

Tree Yep! Minimal cases at the beginning and that’s it.

It's just hit me, as of 11th when PCR without symptoms is scrapped in favour or LFT positives, we3re going to lose our most reliable data on cases arent we?! People may choose to keep their positives unreported/not know how to report/report incorrectly etc.

Then what?!

@DollyStardust

It's just hit me, as of 11th when PCR without symptoms is scrapped in favour or LFT positives, we3re going to lose our most reliable data on cases arent we?! People may choose to keep their positives unreported/not know how to report/report incorrectly etc.

Then what?!

Or fail to report them because the system said ( after going through the whole process ) " we can not verify you"

People may choose to keep their positives unreported/not know how to report/report incorrectly etc

What would the reason be for them doing this though? If they weren't going to do anything with the positive, why would they test? If they are going to isolate, then they why wouldn't they log it?

This sounds a bit like another "no-one will follow the rules" claim, despite that we've never actually had any evidence other than the vast majority of people do follow whatever the rules are.

Of course it's going to impact the stats, there will be a change, but I don't think it's going to suddenly turn us blind, especially when the majority of cases are not LFD ones currently.

@DollyStardust

It's just hit me, as of 11th when PCR without symptoms is scrapped in favour or LFT positives, we3re going to lose our most reliable data on cases arent we?! People may choose to keep their positives unreported/not know how to report/report incorrectly etc.

Then what?!

We have ONS and REACT.

The tested case numbers are only a fraction of the total numbers infected.

And we'll always have sewage.

I think Russia's case numbers are so wildly implausible that I'm not sure I'd rely on them for anything, unfortunately.

I'm watching China with a fair amount of worry, particularly as I have family there. Virtually no disease experience, and their vaccines are basically rubbish. If Omicron gets established then it could prove interesting.