Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

An increase in "primary covid" is exactly what you expect when community cases are falling because the majority of incidental admissions will be in the less vulnerable as the rates are much higher in the less vulnerable, and the less vulnerable spend a shorter time in hospital.

It would also be really good to find out exactly how those virtual wards are handled - particularly as London overall in patients went down yesterday, if more of them are virtual ward patients then they'll stay around longer.

Boys your heat map age tables from London are interesting thank you and a worry with the large increase in care home outbreaks - thanks for the link Jangly I was going to post that graph myself.

I find this testing graph a bit of a surprise. It appears there was a reduction in people pcr testing in the run up to Christmas (I would have expected the opposite). I am also surprised at the low level of secondary school tests compared with the whole population in the second half of last term. Another interesting note is that primary ages testing levels dropped about a week before the end of term when covid levels were very high in primary aged children.

Another interesting note is that primary ages testing levels dropped about a week before the end of term when covid levels were very high in primary aged children

Case rates in England in 5-9 year olds were lower in the week they broke up for Christmas than the week before - not hugely dropped from 1046 on the 10th to 1001 on the 17th but certainly going down, so you'd also expect tests to go down. Other respiratory illness (which can trigger tests) also tends to peak at the start of a half term and decline towards the end (due to the nature of routine and contacts)

So I'm not surprised about that - it's still 5 times the number of tests than positives, so the majority of the vast majority of kids did not have covid.

Generally there is concern if positivity rates rise, as it suggests cases are being missed.

"Too high" is conventionally over 5%

publichealth.jhu.edu/2020/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive

"Too high" is conventionally over 5%

In no way is a positivity rate of 5% appropriate to omicron, the 5% is when you're trying to minimise cases, not when 10% of the population are positive, 5% would clearly be garbage then, the fact the positivity is so low without any mitigations other than testing does not suggest cases are missing to me.

Quite I am not sure a positivity rate to the Original strain is appropriate particularly when it is relation to opening up after the first lockdown in 2020 (I nearly said last year!)

But I think the wastewater analysis shows that cases are being missed - it is just hard to see I think where testing capacity can really be ramped up in this country.

For example as I said Orange County in Florida has added in a new test centre on the 30th December - from 2 to 3. So they have increased testing and are still hitting a 30% positivity rate

Would Florida be a wise benchmark though?!

That graph is very interesting for all sorts of reasons, as a member of secondary school staff and mum of teens.

Eg the sharp rise in sixth form age tests in early September not mirrored by younger school years. Because at that age they can give consent themselves? Because many had just returned from festivals and were either experiencing symptoms or aware of their risk?

Is anywhere a wise benchmark though most places are consistently at around 20-30% so looking for 5% that was devised with the Original Covid is not something that can be achieved with Omicron. Because we simply cant test that much.

Florida was used (actually Orange County) simply because antedoctally I know testing there has increased 50% over the past week yet still has a similar range.

And if we cant rely on testing picking up all the cases because there simply isnt the capacity for it - and what point does testing become obsolete

Ireland had a test positivity of just over 50% for the last week, it seems they’ve been hit with omicron just going into Christmas (probably exacerbated by a lot of inbound travel) and they have had test shortages and LFT issues. This is all despite harsher restrictions on hospitality in the lead up to Christmas.

covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

so looking for 5% that was devised with the Original Covid is not something that can be achieved with Omicron. Because we simply cant test that much

You can't achieve a 5% test positivity when 10% of your population would test positive!

Case rates in England in 5-9 year olds were lower in the week they broke up for Christmas than the week before - not hugely dropped from 1046 on the 10th to 1001 on the 17th but certainly going down, so you'd also expect tests to go down.

Except we don't know whether cases actually dropped or less testing was done. Looking at the increase increase in positivity at this point it could mean cases were being missed. This would predate omicron in most areas. It is also interesting that testing and cases in primary children continued to decline at the end of December whilst every other group rose sharply, yet the posivity in primary ages rates shot up. The ons data today supports the fact that rates in younger children have steadily risen, although may be beginning to level. With the return to school it will be interesting to see if testing picks up (schools are obviously trying to encourage this) and if so there might be a rapid rise in case numbers, as I suspect currently many cases are being missed.

The fewer the symptoms with omicron, the less likely you are to get testable symptoms even as prevalence goes up, with omicron milder and under 10's even before very unlikely to get symptoms then you would expect positivity to rise when the trigger is symptoms or positive LFD.

I'd say it was the expected reflection.

NW has now overtaken London according to the ons daily estimates.

mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1479427292921307140

with omicron milder and under 10's even before very unlikely to get symptoms

I don't know about the under 10s, but I do know that the year 6s at our school were hit badly before Christmas yes quite a few had mild symptoms but many were quite poorly. A few children were off for a number weeks after their isolation with terrible fatigue. One child is still not back 6 weeks after getting covid as he doesn't have enough energy to get through the day. He had no underlying health issues prior to this. I hope omicron is milder for them.

So, Drakeford is claiming Wales peak in 10-14 days.

ONS say 5.2% in week ending 31st December.

I don't see how that works, ONS reckon got to 9% before peaking, and took just over a week to go from 5% to get there, so that would be three times slower than London to get to the peak? That seems strange - given that it grew from 2.5% to 5.2% in the same time as London ie the different mitigations in wales did nothing to change the growth from between 2.5% and 5.2% so why would those mitigations change the 5.2% to peak?

Do Wales publish their predictions anywhere?

ONS reckon London got to....

Yes, I agree, Drakeford’s “projections” do not appear to make sense.

He must be overestimating the impact of current mitigations on the ongoing spread.

Perhaps the peak is expected to be considerably higher in Wales? So 5.2% is less on the way to the peak than it was in London? I guess the ONS is saying the NW peak will be higher too.

London, still no big LFD increase from the back to school testing, lower again today. 4th does look like it will be a "post NYE mixing" peak (like we've seen other peaks in London after the weekends and christmas), but it will be quite a bit lower than the last. London certainly looks to be falling as per the other evidence.

All the schools I know of there were done by now? Maybe other areas not though.

Another, and larger fall of patients in hospital in London, that it's falling pretty much along with cases I think shows how much is either incidental or very mild, but the question will now be how many are the longer term more severe covid cases.

National figures not yet falling of course, but only 100 growth today which is also much better (best since christmas)

Still positive to me.

Maybe Drakeford is being cautious. Ons have yet to confirm London has peaked.
"In the week ending 31 December 2021, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase across all regions of England. In London, there were early signs in the last few days of 2021 that infections may no longer be increasing, but it is currently too early to suggest if this is a continuing change in trend. Caution should be taken in over-interpreting any small movements in the latest trend."

lonely the graph in the tweet you posted was ONS showing a strong peak for London wasn't it? Have they retracted that?

As your the data peeps, is there a vague formula to working out when my own area will peak? Modelling off London for example?

I suspect ons are also being cautious, due to the holidays and then schools returning they don't know what might happen in the next few weeks. It could be the peak in cases for London or I guess a fluctuation in the numbers. Time will tell but let's hope for the peak.

Devon, including Torridge, is on the rise again.

Mark Drakeford sounded glum today.
Always at odds with our PM and health secretary who play it down a lot more, yet they all have the same data and stats etc