Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Firefliess

Nice graph showing what the latest ONS report shows is going on in London twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1478739628735803398?t=j4o8KFSb7Kmz8XO3-14Ixg&s=19

Much smoother than the case counts and looks to have peaked in late December

London’s peak is, however, following the curve of reducing after schools close. It’ll be very interesting to see if the curve reverses its downward trajectory once schools are back.

Exactly that Reastie I hope it has peaked but it seems premature to call considering the closure of schools (SA still have schools closed)

The longer and longer we go on though, the higher the risk of the ONS survey method becoming less and less representative, and particularly with re-infection changes - since previously keeping in infected families in your survey would under-state true levels, now it wouldn't.

Compliance changes in the community also impact it, so the group willing to go through the survey and tests etc. could also become less representative of the whole population in other compliance and guidance areas.

I believe last christmas - and I would've relied on Mrex memory here - that they understated the rise by quite a bit and then understated the fall?

Not saying it's wrong, and of course it fits other data, just there are more and more confounders with the ONS methodology that could be impacting it.

We know from the age rate graphs that the Omicron wave has very little to do with schools. It peaked and started falling in London because rates have started to fall in the 20-40 age group, which is not likely to be related to the school holidays. We can also see similar sharp increase to the one London saw in the first three weeks of December happening in other places precisely over the school holidays. I'm not saying it's impossible that schools opening will cause a new spike in London, but the data we're looking at over the last few weeks with Omicron is not all about schools. I think it's not much about schools or children at all.

Posting on this thread as it seems the place for the some sensible answers.

I have been testing positive on LFTs and negative on PCRs since August. Never knowingly been a contact of someone with Covid since October 2020.

Am retired, shop by click and collect, and don't go anywhere where I cannot distance myself from others on a day to day basis.

I test when I would like to meet up with family/friends and there is no option but to be indoors. Every LFT I have taken has been positive. So many arrangements cancelled only then receive a negative PCR.

119 and GP not interested in discussing. So, who can I speak to, to find out why this is happening? There must be something in my body which gives a positive result. I read that people were putting fruit juice on LFTs in order to get a positive result so I am guessing it must be something like this. Always test in the morning before eating/drinking.

I don't want to stop testing as I belive it is important to protect others, but maybe there is some other test I can do?

Anyone have any ideas? Please? I am becoming a hermit. So worried about making someone else ill. Am I the only one this is happening to?

Sorry, meant to include that this is now made worse by the fact that I can't get a PCR now if I have no symptoms, so I can't see friends in the couple of days after getting a negative PCR and will be constantly self isolating for 10 days after a LFT.

I'm having the opposite problem Aunty.
I had an extremely mild cough a week before Christmas and did a PCR which came back positive so I isolated all over Christmas. I was testing negative on LFT throughout that time, never had a positive one. Ended isolation on 28th December.
On 2nd Jan came down with sore throat and worsening of cough. Feel more ill than did with official Covid. LFT still consistently negative but can't go for a confirmatory PCR as it is likely to just test positive from previous Covid infection as it is so recent.
I'm reduced to assuming that as I am now so symptomatic, it would surely be showing on LFT by now if this was a reinfection.

@sirfredfredgeorge

The longer and longer we go on though, the higher the risk of the ONS survey method becoming less and less representative, and particularly with re-infection changes - since previously keeping in infected families in your survey would under-state true levels, now it wouldn't.

Compliance changes in the community also impact it, so the group willing to go through the survey and tests etc. could also become less representative of the whole population in other compliance and guidance areas.

I believe last christmas - and I would've relied on Mrex memory here - that they understated the rise by quite a bit and then understated the fall?

Not saying it's wrong, and of course it fits other data, just there are more and more confounders with the ONS methodology that could be impacting it.

My recollection of last winter was that we didn't have figures from either ONS or REACT over the very highest part of the peak, because of the Christmas Bank Holidays and the particular gaps between the dates for data collection.

There is of course a lag of a week or 2 with the ONS data as well, both going up and coming down.

I don't completely understand the issue with families who have had previous infections and why this would skew the data.

Does ONS take families off their books, as it were, if they've had covid?

ConcernedAuntie I think you have to conclude LFT's simply are not viable for you, whether you can interest anyone in looking into why is a different question.

The paper validating the use of the devices was published under a paper by Tim Peto with lots of others ( www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/team/tim-peto / www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/publications/1156124 ) They may be interested, as may the manufacturers - of which there are loads, but I suspect none will be particularly interested so to find the individuals who are will be tricky.

The actual chance of you "infecting someone else", is really quite slim over and above someone else infecting them, because prevalence is so high you're very unlikely to be the only person they meet. By not simply ruling out LFT testing for you and using PCR's with symptoms you are almost certainly harming your own health more than benefiting anyone else.

It's likely thousands of LFT's are required to prevent a single case of covid, losing you from the testing pool will not harm the community much at all, and isolating needlessly will harm you a lot.

570 new Covid cases in 0-5 year old children over the last week.

@Cantonet

570 new Covid cases in 0-5 year old children over the last week.

Presumably a lot of those admissions will be 'incidental' though? With rates so high in the community, it stands to reason that the number of children testing positive when admitted will increase, but not necessarily be the reason that they're being admitted.

I wonder what the admission numbers are like for bronchiolitis for under 5s at this time of year?

When my DD was 2 in the winter of 2017 she had an overnight hospital stay for it and the whole children's ward had it.

Re. ONS, they keep you on after infection, DS caught Covid in November and has done a couple more ONS swabs since then.
They do always ask about testing and whether you've had Covid/Long Covid, so I assume they're set up for post-infection households.

Not enough cartoons on these threads IMO

(From Private Eye)

Lower numbers all around, certainly no big "back to school" increase in LFD's in London on what are presumably the first two days worth now.

London has it's first REDUCTION in the number of patients in hospital since the 14th of December, so that's great news, only 19 less of course, but obviously at least it's in the right direction.

Again, can't see a single negative in the stats, all moving in positive directions, even looks like other areas than London are beginning to get to their peaks too.

Only 2 days of school of course, so too early to refute "Schools are the big spreaders" hypothesis, but certainly positive to me.

Well it would be lovely if schools going back didn't increase cases.

Some schools have only gone back today though

What's going on with boosters? I thought it would have picked-up a bit after the holidays.

I suspect the main problem with boosters is the number of people with an infection in the last 28 days, and of course the general lack of confidence in their efficacy.

Where I volunteer, one hypothesis is that people wait until they’re back at work so they can get time off—and possibly claim a day for side-effects. Anecdotally when I have rung people to ask if they want to come down and grab a spare dose (usually appointments only until recently), I have been told this by their mothers. 😆

@containsnuts

What's going on with boosters? I thought it would have picked-up a bit after the holidays.

Most people who were anxious to get one would have done so before Christmas.

Re: schools - I think it is inevitably that we will see a version of “back to school” wave but I doubt it can come close to the “pre-Christmas wave” started by 20somethings.

We have seen this with Delta. Transmission in schools was absolutely real but the total case count in England never passed the Euro 2020 peak from mid-July. Millions of schoolchildren could not compete with partying young adults.

FWIW, the most effective measure in preventing spread in school smight have been household isolation. The risk of secondary infection within households is high for both Delta and Omicron so sending exposed children to school must’ve added fuel to fire.

At the same time, isolation of non-household “close contacts” might’ve always had questionable benefit.

Denmark may not have peaked, as it rose again today, perhaps longer NYE break than I thought, although it's certainly not resumed an increase, just not so clearly falling.

One thing I hadn't noticed, Denmark do publish re-infections, and they're at less than the 10% Ferguson claims, around 7% the last few days.

@containsnuts

What's going on with boosters? I thought it would have picked-up a bit after the holidays.

Of the approx. 45 million who are within the 3 month window, approx. 35 million have been done. That's 78% which is pretty good.

(no particular reason of course to assume re-infections would be the same in England as Denmark, but still interesting that they're pretty low there in a country that almost certainly finds a lot of cases)