Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

seven day rate per 100,000 tables for Councils in England. Showing the previous five weeks, with the latest up to 2nd January, which although will have further cases to add is already at the highest current seven day rate overall. Which will only edge higher as more cases get reported through.

The final three columns show the seven day rate for previous three days - eg to 30th, 31st and 1st.

All the holiday season caveats of course apply

Tables are by region and sorted by highest to lowest current rate.

The first column is the latest week rank for each council's rate. Largely academic when few councils have a rate below 1,000 per 100,000 and of those few that do the lowest is 859 per 100,000. For clarification that is not a low rate.

The colour formatting is based on each individual week in case anyone wonders how a rate of say 1600 per 100,000 could be a shade of green.

The worldindata graph is dodgy due to "timing", the majority of the difference in the nations there predates omicron, and the rest is the point on the curve - if you did it from "N cases of omicron discovered" rather than a timepoint you get different results.

Scotland and NI haven't reported recently enough, but Welsh growth since the 28th is faster than the peak of the England growth, (NI's reduction looks suspect)
ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?stackMode=relative&time=2021-12-28..2021-12-31

You need to be careful with graphs, it's easy to mislead based purely on timing, Here's a graph showing how much better the US response was compared to Germany or France, it's just timing of the waves, you can't do this.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

here Scotland has excellent vaccination coverage and more boosted. They have a massive amount of cases too. Not sure if it's London level but probably more than where I live in England.

I really do think vaccinations / boosters are key, plus they had a brutal delta wave.

I am not convinced that its restrictions as they mainly target young adults.

Scotland was hit pretty bad by previous variants. Hospitalisations have been near March 2020 levels a few times so maybe there's bit more immunity from previous infection like in SA?

Graph from Public Health Scotland

Starting with the epicentre of life as we know it.

Only Newham as flagged a couple of days ago shows a (small) week on week increase.

Whether all the falls are sustained as schools return; bank holidays disappear etc remain to be seen. And if they do will that be across all age bands.

whilst in the soulless suburbs a more mixed picture

Ah to live in the green list with soul - just checking

North West which has the highest regional rate overall.

All the councils in the first tables are placed within the highest 30 by rate in England.

The latest rate in Copeland exceeds the peak reached by any London Borough.

North East which has seen some of the most rapid recent growth

East of England

East Midlands

South Northants whilst having a rate over 1300 per 100,000 now finds itself third lowest in the region, and in the lowest quartile in England.

South East

A handful of slight fallers at the moment; a majority with week on week growth below the England level.

Isle of Wight with the lowest current rate in England.

Rother also in the under a thousand club

So I'd never heard of Copeland, so first thought "well, high rate, probably got by really easily in previous waves so the high rate is just catch up" - but it's not it's above the overall rate for Newham even as it's rising and Newham is falling. Detection rates possibly higher for some reason?

West Midlands

South West

and saving the best, albeit not in either rate of growth terms, til last

@sirfredfredgeorge

So I'd never heard of Copeland, so first thought "well, high rate, probably got by really easily in previous waves so the high rate is just catch up" - but it's not it's above the overall rate for Newham even as it's rising and Newham is falling. Detection rates possibly higher for some reason?

Sellafield perhaps. Not the best place for staff shortages.

@Regulus

Somewhere on this thread was the talk that hospitals are more cautious at ventilating with the idea that the outcome is known for many patients (ie death or serious disablement) I have not seen any data for this. Possibly the only true data will be deaths but that will come too late.

Pure anecdata here but my df was ventilated in November and we agreed to a dnar after he contracted pneumonia and we were told that if he survived his lungs would be irreparably damaged and he would be very disabled. Once he had passed away we were told that less than 10 covid patients had survived ventilation since the start of the year. A scenario that will have played out in many critical care units one would imagine.

Don't have admissions figures for Scotland, but according to Traveling Tabby, those in hospital with Covid on Tuesday 28th Dec 599, with 37 in ICU. Today 1147, with 42 in ICU.
There's still whole household isolation and 10 days rather than 7. And Hogmanay was very muted compared to how it could have been without restrictions.
Be interesting to see how long they can keep the schools staffed.

@Tojaboenottojab. I don't think those statistics are right overall. See ebn.bmj.com/content/25/1/13. Seems the ICU survival rate was about 60% in the first wave, rising to about 80% by the second wave. Maybe at the unit your DF was in they had sicker patients or something? The improvement may well have been a mixture of learning better how to care for ICU covid patients, and more accurate triaging (so those who have no chance of a decent recovery are not subjected to ICU any more). Sorry about your DF.

Not sure what's going on in Copeland - doesn't seem to be low vaccination rates (two thirds boosted). Doesn't seem to be localised at all (the entire map is black making it hard to see much as you zoom in!). It's a relatively poor area, low waged, not really the bit of the lake district popular with retired incomers. Sellafield is the main employer round there. Seems to have hit all ages, though highest in 20-40s. Rate in over 60s is 3 times its peak last year though - that's not looking good for hospitals in that area.

www.nwemail.co.uk/news/19817628.barrow-copeland-sees-biggest-week-on-week-rise-covid-19-cases-uk/

Simon Fell, MP for Barrow and Furness, believes rates in Barrow and Copeland are high due to the 'near identical' testing regimes

He said: "My strong suspicion is that the high rate in Barrow is as a result of the testing regimes in place at both the shipyard and Furness General - with more tests come more results

Given that Copeland is also so high and that Sellafield has a near identical testing regime, this would bear out

@Firefliess but not everyone on ITU with covid or otherwise, is necessarily ventilated, so quite probable you and @ToJabOrNotToJab are both right

Sorry to butt in but has anyone got any further info on the new variant being discussed identified in France but coming from Africa again apparently? So far a very small cluster and not yet flagged by the WHO as far as I'm aware, so probably par for the course in virus development. I'm just quite interested in the evolution aspects as it were, so any scientific thought most appreciated

age rate movement in London up to 30th Dec spec date

All ages on this ones, slightly easier read to follow

these ones cover

0ver 80s

60-79s

40-59s

note the y-axis scale does vary (quite a bit)