Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

and all the under 40 bands

and this is all regions and all age bands but just the seven day rate to 30th Dec

full mandatory masks and distancing might work, but the big problem with this is that it would require both full adherence when alone in public and the closure of all eating and drinking in public places as they negate the problem

I work in HE and would welcome such additional restrictions. Many institutions such as ours could easily ensure adherence. However, all SD measures are now dropped. So not even the slight protection we had last term when online lectures enabled f2f seminars to be held in lecture theatres. I bought my own CO2 monitor and felt somewhat assured by the metrics. This term everyone will be back crowded together. Thousands of international students all flying back this week. Will be… interesting.

@MistressoftheDarkSide

Sorry to butt in but has anyone got any further info on the new variant being discussed identified in France but coming from Africa again apparently? So far a very small cluster and not yet flagged by the WHO as far as I'm aware, so probably par for the course in virus development. I'm just quite interested in the evolution aspects as it were, so any scientific thought most appreciated

There seems to be some discussion on Twitter about this and the verdict of scientists I trust is that it's alarmist nonsense. The variant has been around since well before Omicron so if it was going up take off would have done so by now, and has been detected only a very small number of times. See discussion on this thread too early today.

Re Barrow/Copeland having good testing. I did notice when looking at the figures on the dashboard that their number of LFTs not confirmed by PCR seemed low - which could be a sign that PCR tests are readily available. I wonder too what sellafield does re testing its staff - it's far and away the biggest employer round there so if they had all but essential staff off over Christmas and returning on the same date with a robust testing regime for them that could cause a bit of a spike.

Most ICU patients are intubated so the survival rate is not very different.57% according to this article www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-96762-1

It's really not remotely close to only 10% and incorrect data like that might be really distressing to anyone who's family member is ever in ICU or intubed.

Actually my sister a consultant quoted me this week a figure of 5% of individuals with underlying conditions, surviving intubation without handicap or brain damage. Hence the criteria for intubation has completely changed since the first wave.
That paper you've just quoted will have had very specific exclusion criteria and doesn't state how well the patients were after being intubated other than being alive and actually surviving with no quality of life.

Sorry, but I prefer actual peer reviewed research and data with large sample sizes over what some person says someone else said to be the case based on her general impression of one hospital! 5% survival is very, very different from 57% and I believe it to be unhelpful misinformation and scaremongering.

Have you seen- telegraph says from tomorrow positive LFTs will NOT require PCR confirmation?

twitter.com/telegraph/status/1478490599263281153?s=21

I don't think we're all getting an Omicron wave that resembles South Africa's, lads.

@Firefliess

Sorry, but I prefer actual peer reviewed research and data with large sample sizes over what some person says someone else said to be the case based on her general impression of one hospital! 5% survival is very, very different from 57% and I believe it to be unhelpful misinformation and scaremongering.

I would certainly not want anyone with a critically ill loved one to be alarmed by my previous post - there are lots of factors at play. The survival rate we were told about was for a specific area of ITU - as you say, this may have been where the sickest patients were treated and the survival rates for critical care in this particular hospital may well have been higher overall. I did say it was pure anecdata.

However, I do think that the focus is predominantly on survival of mechanical ventilation patients and more information should be widely available on the condition of these survivors and their quality of life thereafter.

Sorry if I've derailed.

Most ICU patients are intubated so the survival rate is not verydifferent.57%

5his is not my field but pre-Covid a significant minority of ITU patients were planned admissions from elective surgery (nearly all transplant patients, lots of cardiac surgery patients, most spinal surgery). You would expect those patients to have a surgical rate in the high 90's or why operate. The surrival for patients imtubated for "medical " reasons has always been lower.

[quote JanglyBeads]Have you seen- telegraph says from tomorrow positive LFTs will NOT require PCR confirmation?

twitter.com/telegraph/status/1478490599263281153?s=21[/quote]
Is this just for asymptomatic people?? I had a positive LFT then negative PCR but was very ill over Christmas. Same thing happened to several friends. Would we now count as Covid cases? LFTs can show positive for other colds I thought ;because they have lower specificity

@PrincessNutNuts

I don't think we're all getting an Omicron wave that resembles South Africa's, lads.

South Africa hardly tests so I'm not sure just comparable.

Likewise the US doesn't really do a good job with testing in some places so will never have so high cases per 100k.

But countries that hardly test should have the same trends, just at a lower detection rate. The shape of the curve wouldn't change. We're definitely experiencing a different wave than SA.

@InMySpareTime

But countries that hardly test should have the same trends, just at a lower detection rate. The shape of the curve wouldn't change. We're definitely experiencing a different wave than SA.

Well yes, it's summer in South Africa too.

But South Africa had a much worse Delta wave than us.........

ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Given though the others are following a similar wave though on that chart and South Africa is the anomaly what makes it so? What makes them different to us?

Not sure it’s just the summer - just in Florida and it was hot there (like hotter than our summer) and their cases are rising

So it must be something if you think of it as correct and not a lack of data or testkng

But countries that hardly test should have the same trends, just at a lower detection rate

Not necessarily, detection changes the shape of waves, because it changes the behaviour of people who test positive and their close contacts.

Simplistically, more testing (and other NPI's) broaden a wave, unless they are sufficient to reduce R below 1, when they end a wave earlier.

I think the South African wave was a similar shape to the UK one (so far) - it's just that you can't see that in a graph where the scale fits the UK levels of testing. It looks to me that London is following roughly SA's trend. More concerned about some of these northern areas where it's shooting up really fast with no sign yet of plateauing, and getting to higher levels than seen in London, which I wouldn't have predicted given London's relatively young and unvaccinated population. Maybe London also has more immunity from past infections. And maybe the northern areas are just about to peak - I do hope so.

The BBC are also reporting plans to drop the recommendation for confirmatory PCRs. I don't think there's any suggestion of not recording LFTs - I think people would be encouraged to report them and consider a positive test correct. This seems a good thing to me - with prevalence as high as it is, it's far more likely that someone with a positive LFT and negative PCR is in fact positive (ie a false negative PCR).

The sensible thing to do would be to retain the confirmatory PCR for anyone who's traveled abroad in the last fortnight in order to keep track of new variants. They're discussing the rules about traveling testing too today, so might do this.

@Firefliess

I think the South African wave was a similar shape to the UK one (so far) - it's just that you can't see that in a graph where the scale fits the UK levels of testing. It looks to me that London is following roughly SA's trend. More concerned about some of these northern areas where it's shooting up really fast with no sign yet of plateauing, and getting to higher levels than seen in London, which I wouldn't have predicted given London's relatively young and unvaccinated population. Maybe London also has more immunity from past infections. And maybe the northern areas are just about to peak - I do hope so.

How much was the London peak artificial though? People significantly changed their behaviours in London in the week before Christmas and then many went elsewhere for Christmas. That must have limited the spread in London somewhat.

With the infections elsewhere, there has not been quite the same change in behaviour as Christmas is passed.

Just my thoughts and not sure how much I can back it up!

I think you're right that the plateauing of the London peak was at least in part caused by voluntary restrictions on socialising, and wfh rules. But that may well have happened in SA too. They had a curfew too to try to contain it (now lifted). Whether we have another peak due to schools, people socialising more once they're no longer worried about ruining Christmas, or wfh is lifted is yet to be seen. SA don't seem to have seen one when they lifted their curfew, which is encouraging, but doesn't necessarily mean we'll see the same in quite different circumstances.

Pretty much everyone I know (in London) stopped socialising in order to 'save' Christmas so i agree it'll be interesting to see if we have really peaked.

@Firefliess

I think the South African wave was a similar shape to the UK one (so far) - it's just that you can't see that in a graph where the scale fits the UK levels of testing. It looks to me that London is following roughly SA's trend. More concerned about some of these northern areas where it's shooting up really fast with no sign yet of plateauing, and getting to higher levels than seen in London, which I wouldn't have predicted given London's relatively young and unvaccinated population. Maybe London also has more immunity from past infections. And maybe the northern areas are just about to peak - I do hope so.

It is very similar...