Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

children who are able to go to and from school on their own should do so

Wish we had that always!

Thank you JanglyBeads. That's really good news. Well, as good a news as we can hope for right now!

But look at Dec 29th for specimens by date (instead of by reported).

But I was providing the data for number of cases reported...

Netherlands is Also interesting in opening up..schools go back this week so its starting to - given how quick omicron spreads I would guess it will take two weeks to get them back to square one on cases when they do open up. That is where I see the problem, original covid, and alpha took a long time comparatively to establish themselves from limited number omicron doesn’t, it’s therefore difficult to see how countries will get much benefit after lockdown is lifted.

It is hard to see the benefit of lockdowns - esp if growth while in place then fast growth after lifted

I had wondered re Netherlands and omicron

@Regulus

London, on the other hand, might be following the path of Gauteng. We should have a clearer picture towards the end of the week

Is that for the same reasons as Gauteng? I remember a pp (Fred?) Who said Gauteng was hard to judge as it emptied out for Xmas and the schools were closed. (I'm fully aware that lots of Londoners remain.)

That was I!

this week

Dutch schools next week, not this, and not universities or all secondary education (I don't know the split, but the least academic group of schools remain remote, which does seem strange, but perhaps the kids would continue on vocational placements and it's just the in person part which is closed?) Either way, it can't be causing the current increases.

Oh, the other thing about a lockdown not working to keep omicron low in the Netherlands which is bad - is that they actually had a low omicron level when they locked down, any country locking down from a high prevalence, is going to keep that high prevalence, there will be no immediate reduction in cases, which won't help healthcare stress or support for the lockdown ("why are we doing this when it's making no difference?")

But we don't yet know for sure that a lockdown doesn't defeat omicron, there's just a question about why in Holland - it could be that they're actually ignoring lots of the restrictions and everyone's having house parties.

Change in rates of hospitalisations in England vs Scotland, Wales and NI - showing one possible benefit of having some more restrictions in the Celtic nations.

Quite a dramatic graph, it would be interesting to see how it changes in the next couple of weeks.

(graph quoted by David Schneider)

herecomesthesun

Yes I was citing schools reopening as likely to cause further increases in the Netherlands when rates are quite high for an “end of lockdown” much higher than when the U.K. opened schools in March for example and likely to go higher in the next couple of weeks with a more transmitable variant. I do think it’s interesting so few countries have opted for lockdown to deal with omicron and cannot help feel it’s because there is some skeptical that a lockdown would really work (different to March 2020 when the U.K. was a definite outlier in Europe at least).

If you look at how lockdown worked with original v delta in Melbourne and NZ, with the latter not containing I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it may not decrease growth with omicron

@herecomesthsun

Change in rates of hospitalisations in England vs Scotland, Wales and NI - showing one possible benefit of having some more restrictions in the Celtic nations.

Quite a dramatic graph, it would be interesting to see how it changes in the next couple of weeks.

(graph quoted by David Schneider)

I'd be interested to know when those figures came from as admission figures from each nation aren't reported daily. Scotland haven't reported any since 28th Dec for example. Is it possible graph is skewed because of that?

(There was a similar graph doing the rounds a couple of weeks ago that was based on missing data from Scotland and Wales which was later updated with correct figures)

Certainly, if we were going to have measures to contain spread of omicron, it would seem that the time has passed when we would have been able to do that with best effect (just as in March 2020 and Sept 2021).

here Scotland has excellent vaccination coverage and more boosted. They have a massive amount of cases too. Not sure if it's London level but probably more than where I live in England.

I really do think vaccinations / boosters are key, plus they had a brutal delta wave.

I am not convinced that its restrictions as they mainly target young adults.

Today was a Bank Holiday in Scotland

@herecomesthsun

Certainly, if we were going to have measures to contain spread of omicron, it would seem that the time has passed when we would have been able to do that with best effect (just as in March 2020 and Sept 2021).

I doubt containment was possible

If you compare to NZ 1 case and borders closed with delta in lockdown

Or Melbourne with 7 cases

It’s more transmissible and that was as lowest number you could go

Our World in Data apparently (it says on the graph )

ourworldindata.org/

[quote herecomesthsun]Our World in Data apparently (it says on the graph )

ourworldindata.org/[/quote]
Yes, thanks. I managed to spot that.

I asked when those figures came from.

For example, the 7 day average for Scotland, if taken today, would be 0 as they haven't reported for the last week. Depending on what figures they are using from when, the graph could be massively skewed as nations don't all release admissions data daily.

Apologies Piggy

Sky talking about a 'inverted lockdown'

Our world in data compile their data from the different countries official statistics sites. As there's been no published data on hospital admissions from Scotland since 27 December it can't be including that data. The admission numbers in England were actually highest on 29 December and have fallen slightly the last few days, plus London has been ahead of the rest of the UK with Omicron. So I think it's too soon to try to draw conclusions about recently introduced rules about pub opening hours in the different nations from the admissions data

.@Bordois

It also appears to give the dates along the x axis?

Just a heads up that the case count for tomorrow and the next few days will jump a lot partly because of in school testing. Am seeing many schools reporting multiple positives picked up (which is good obviously).

and yes, it will be interesting to see how it changes in the next couple of weeks