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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

992 replies

boys3 · 01/01/2022 18:49

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
230
the80sweregreat · 04/01/2022 16:32

The guardian are reporting now that the figures in the hospitals are higher up north and they seem worse off than . Lancashire is badly hit , ' at the foothills of a Omnicron wave ' according to one source
I can imagine that the scientists would like a few more restrictions ( apart from prof Ferguson) but the MPs are backing less restrictions and to drop the isolation times again.
The Mail is going with ' people are off with a mild virus ' ie , nothing to see here yet attitude.

wintertravel1980 · 04/01/2022 16:40

Happy New Year, everyone! Long time - no speak:).

But look at Dec 29th for specimens by date (instead of by reported).

Yes, this is entirely consistent with the prior year. We should have expected a one off spike on that day as a result of delayed testing over Christmas.

Of course, the reported numbers are much higher now. Dec 29, 2020 (England only) was 72k, Dec 29 2021 (England only) might reach 200k.

lonelyplanet · 04/01/2022 16:40

Should i be concerned or not! Thats all i want to know at this point.

Ha! Well that's a moot point!
If you need or work in a hospital...then yes
If you work in a school or would like a education...then probably
If you work in an industry where closure due to staff absence will cause you problems...then maybe
If you have had covid in the last 2 weeks, none of the above apply and you don't care about others...then no
If you are a tory mp...then no

lonelyplanet · 04/01/2022 16:44

Apologies that was all opinion not data.

Adogisonmypillow · 04/01/2022 16:45

Lonely - im leaning towards worrying but thats based entirely on the fact i sometimes get svt and i am worried if i have an “episode” (makes me sounds like a victorian woman) i wont be able to get treatments .

Regulus · 04/01/2022 16:46

I'm worried, it is a gamble taken by non scientists, and for our school it is resulting in nothing more than babysitting some years.

We've had a LFT positivity rating of 12% highest since we started testing and a reasonable number of these announced they had cold symptoms. We also have a higher amount of students whose parents have refused to have them tested.

wintertravel1980 · 04/01/2022 16:49

The data is very noisy because of holidays so it is really hard to assess how concerned we should be.

I am really puzzled by the NE&Y hospital numbers. They spiked very high and very fast.

London, on the other hand, might be following the path of Gauteng. We should have a clearer picture towards the end of the week.

Dghgcotcitc · 04/01/2022 16:52

I think it’s less clear cut this time as it would seem that the high trasmiisability of the variant would mean cases would rebound after a lockdown pretty quickly so other than lower cases for the few months of lockdown we would Achieve little.

In fact arguably we are in a slightly better place now than in locking down for three months and letting boosters protection to wain and then opening up! Remember we went from zero omicron to it being everywhere in two weeks so the growth rate after a lockdown would likely to be big negating the gains very quickly.

So In a sense yes there is reason to be worried but there is also reason to ask if a lockdown would “work” this time. It’s an expensive option if the results would last only a week or so after we opened up it’s actually a pretty difficult problem and one the world is grappling with (which is why Spain, france, Italy have all not done a lockdown this time despite high cases, it’s not just the U.K. this time)

Regulus · 04/01/2022 16:55

London, on the other hand, might be following the path of Gauteng. We should have a clearer picture towards the end of the week

Is that for the same reasons as Gauteng? I remember a pp (Fred?) Who said Gauteng was hard to judge as it emptied out for Xmas and the schools were closed. (I'm fully aware that lots of Londoners remain.)

Choux · 04/01/2022 16:56

There's more actions open to Gov than a lockdown. If omicron can be caught via fleeting contact then why not introduce some level of social distancing, limits on gatherings including private households etc

If, as people say, we need to learn to live with covid then we need to learn to modify our behaviour to reduce the chance of contracting and spreading it.

Regulus · 04/01/2022 16:58

Plymouth declaring a major incident now, that's 9 hospitals now

Choux · 04/01/2022 16:59

I would say that while London families may remain there over Christmas, a high proportion of younger people aged 20 to 30 - who were the ones driving the pre Xmas surge - are more likely to leave London to spend time with their families. To a certain degree London does empty out at Christmas.

wintertravel1980 · 04/01/2022 17:07

Gauteng does have hundreds of thousands of migrant workers (out of the 15 million population) who go back to other provinces during Christmas holidays but this phenomenon cannot explain the scale of the drop. It is a genuine fall in cases and hospitalisations (probably - driven by Omicron hitting the “immunity wall”).

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
sirfredfredgeorge · 04/01/2022 17:34

There's more actions open to Gov than a lockdown. If omicron can be caught via fleeting contact then why not introduce some level of social distancing, limits on gatherings including private households etc

The fleeting contact is of the type entering the same lift that an infected person was in a minute ago. Simply distancing doesn't work - full mandatory masks and distancing might work, but the big problem with this is that it would require both full adherence when alone in public and the closure of all eating and drinking in public places as they negate the problem.

Netherlands is the interesting place to look at for this at the moment full lockdown, cases rising, but too early to say lockdown doesn't defeat omicron.

Piggywaspushed · 04/01/2022 17:38

I believe SA is also still on school holidays.

sirfredfredgeorge · 04/01/2022 17:43

Slight LFD pick up in London, so my post NYE peak might still be a valid hypothesis (bank holiday, so I don't think it was back to school testing, although we should start to see that tomorrow anyway) but not by a large amount, not like after the last two times, so I'm still hopeful I might be wrong (and London has properly peaked)

The 145 growth in patients in hospital in London is also high, bank holiday still of course so may be delayed discharge, so might have to look to see if the admissions go up (it's weird that admissions are delayed more than number in hospital, you get teased with the data)

And also this growth in hospital wasn't reflected across England, a much more reasonable number there, so still very mixed picture on admissions. No mechanical ventilation required increase still - does anyone know what other routes to death there are - ie is just looking at ventilation potentially wrong, and there are other ways people can progress to death, obviously there have always been individuals who aren't ventilated as it's not warranted for them, but are there others who never needed ventilation, but were killed by something other than lack of oxygen?

Regulus · 04/01/2022 17:51

Somewhere on this thread was the talk that hospitals are more cautious at ventilating with the idea that the outcome is known for many patients (ie death or serious disablement) I have not seen any data for this. Possibly the only true data will be deaths but that will come too late.

lonelyplanet · 04/01/2022 17:57

Netherlands is the interesting place to look at for this at the moment full lockdown, cases rising, but too early to say lockdown doesn't defeat omicron.

Fred -You mentioned this earlier today too, but without data. I have had a look and this is from Reuters. Netherlands (left graph) appears to be in the third level down (according to Reuters definition) of stay at home as a recommended but not required. The restrictions appear to have caused a large down turn in cases, although there has been a small increase again in the last few days (Christmas mixing?). For comparison I have included the UK graph (right). However I'm not sure these can be compared much like Wales earlier because of the difference in timings, populations, behaviour, vaccination etc. I am a little uncertain whether your point about the Netherlands is to show how well lockdown can work or something else.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
containsnuts · 04/01/2022 17:59

@Piggywaspushed

I believe SA is also still on school holidays.
And it's the summer.
lonelyplanet · 04/01/2022 18:01

If anyone knows more about the Netherlands I would be interested.

JanglyBeads · 04/01/2022 18:12

Regulus I saw a dr saying that on Twitter (don't think I copied it to here though) saying they'd learnt that it really wasn't worth trying ventilation with some, because altho it may save lives, it left such disablement and trauma afterwards. Being discussed with patients and only withheld with their consent.

Difficult.

velvetvixen · 04/01/2022 18:13

What is the ratio of Delta to Omicron cases in the UK now?

sirfredfredgeorge · 04/01/2022 18:15

The Netherlands locked down because of a delta wave and the fear of omicron layering on top - like Germany and Austria.

This is the official requirements
www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands/coronavirus-measures-in-brief
the "Most locations closed" is pretty much like our lockdown, and even essential shops have tighter hours than us (although I've not really understood this as a measure anywhere)

Limits on vistors per day to your house (2 or more on special days, but still only 2 visitors is pretty tight)

Schools closed early, but are currently set to re-open, but uni's and others will be remote only.

So it all sounds like a strict lockdown, and it squashed delta quickly, the question is if there's a change in adherence or something, or if outdoor mixing and essential shops isn't turning omicron there.

JanglyBeads · 04/01/2022 18:17

@velvetvixen last I saw was 9/10 are omicron, a few days ago (ONS?)

sirfredfredgeorge · 04/01/2022 18:23

The detailed guidance is good too
www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands/public-life