Hope the Govt keeps its nerve

[Wizzbangfizz]

Against another lockdown?

I know it is back bench pressure keeping us from where wales and Scotland are going to be/are. Due to that though I think we have a chance of coming through this - seeing it out and hopefully getting on with it on 2022 (I'd except back to tables in hospitality) - especially in light of the 10-7 days isolation reduction now?

The NHS has been on its knees for years due to poor management. This is not a new thing to have near capacity ICU beds during the winter months.

'Efficacy of vaccines also known' - Any citation of this 'fact'?

@fromdownwest

Well yes because the data is still being gathered and studied.

And this works both ways too it could be fine, it may not increase hospitalisations, if hospitalisatuons remain low so could deaths. Etc etc.
That is best case but not referenced to data either.

We wont know for sure which outcomes we get yet.

Do nothing and we get best case whoop good poker face boris.
Do restrictions and we get best case... stupid boris lockdown for nothing.
Do restrictions and worst case, thank god we didnt just sit and watch the bodies pile up.
Do nothing and worst case..... do we really want ro find out what that means for every single one of us.?

3 outcomes are ok the lastone i would like to avoid if possible

"The NHS has been on its knees for years due to poor management. This is not a new thing to have near capacity ICU beds during the winter months"

Your citations for this?

'Efficacy of vaccines also known' - Any citation of this 'fact'?

Umm the report the op references!

@walksen

"Not one reference to acual fact or data."

Not true. Doubling time is well established as 2 days. Efficacy of vaccines also known to be lower.

Still lots of uncertainty but it really is not as simple as it's half as severe so no problemo is it?

Easy to say what about doom and gloom but with doubling time so fast wait and see could end up really shit for all the NHS staff who are on their knees already and likely to have leave cancelled etc next week.

Not sure re doubling time 18th Dec

-a methodology memo published by the UKHSA on Thursday states it is now wrong to assume that the doubling rate will remain constant, and so should no longer be used

It’s likely due to behaviour change

@walksen

"The NHS has been on its knees for years due to poor management. This is not a new thing to have near capacity ICU beds during the winter months"

Your citations for this?

The fact that every winter - for many years - there have been news reports of ambulances queuing outside hospitals. This isn’t a new issue as a result of C19, this is because the system has always run on a tight budget with little leeway.

The BBC have reported that half of all London covid patients were actually admitted for different reasons. That definitely puts a slightly different perspective on figures.

"It’s likely due to behaviour change"

True as this is it is highly likely that behaviour will change again in the next few days and based on last year will shorten doubling time again.

@walksen

"The NHS has been on its knees for years due to poor management. This is not a new thing to have near capacity ICU beds during the winter months"

Your citations for this?

Direct exposure to NHS financial reports and procurement teams.

@2389Champ - But that does not fit the narrative does it?

Direct exposure to NHS financial reports and procurement teams

Still not a single fact here. Practice what you preach etc.

Well, we managed to last a whole 4 pages without the inevitable "on its knees" comment so I guess that's good going.

@DaisyNGO

I don't believe Australia won't lock down again.

What makes you say that? It seems like omicron is going to force us into herd immunity whether we like it or not. Now is the time to start learning to live with covid surely?

[quote fromdownwest]@2389Champ - But that does not fit the narrative does it?[/quote]
Exactly. We all seem to have very short memories about previous winters pre covid.

Surprisingly though , I think during this last week, the government have handled the crisis quite well. Working with the public and appealing to their collective sense of responsibility has far more impact (with me certainly! 😂) than commanding us to comply, as has happened in Wales and Scotland. Generally, people have self regulated appropriately and sensibly and just used common sense.

I’m actually pleased that we haven’t gone totally draconian like some other countries. I hope we never do either.

@DarknessAndLight

I’m actually pleased that we haven’t gone totally draconian like some other countries. I hope we never do either.

I live in Wales, granted it is not Oz or NZ mad. However during covid we have had paper, books and magazines banned from sale in Tesco, and now Drakeford is threatening staff with fines if they go into the office and they 'could' have worked from home,

He has stopped viewing of all sports, cancelled music gigs, rule of 6 is back.

All based on about 2 weeks of data.

A power hungry loon

@AnyFucker

Agree, op

No. More. Lockdowns.

100% agree, totally unnecessary.

@fromdownwest apologies as I am in England and was only thinking of the restrictions here. Your restrictions sound extreme and unnecessary. I honestly don’t understand what’s happened to some governments and authorities.

@Tealightsandd

How do Long Covid sufferers earn a livelihood?

Omicron might not cause Long Covid. We don't know yet. But we do know, from multiple studies in Scotland, Denmark and South Africa that it appears to be considerably milder than other covid strains. I don't think we need further mitigations at this point.

Every year we are told the NHS is at crisis point - every single year there are stories or overwhelmed services and ambulances outside a hospital with no beds.

There is more to life that shutting down to protect a failing system. There is also more to life than thinking that locking down to keep everyone alive is a sensible thing to do, people die. Suicides, additions etc are spiralling and I've said from the start when the cure is worse than the disease it isn't the answer.

@HariboMaroon I've personally always thought it is was a form of post viral fatigue syndrome but long covid sounds better/scarier.

Darkness Australia has had some of the most draconian measures

Last year Johnson said no more lockdowns. These people don't really want to have realistic "live with Covid" measures and neither do a lot of MNers. I fullly expect one to pitch up and tell me off now!

[quote DarknessAndLight]@fromdownwest apologies as I am in England and was only thinking of the restrictions here. Your restrictions sound extreme and unnecessary. I honestly don’t understand what’s happened to some governments and authorities.[/quote]
Once you hitch your wagon to zero covid policies, common sense goes out of the window. Calling you out Ardern, Australia, and ezpecially China!

@DaisyNGO

Darkness Australia has had some of the most draconian measures

Last year Johnson said no more lockdowns. These people don't really want to have realistic "live with Covid" measures and neither do a lot of MNers. I fullly expect one to pitch up and tell me off now!

There's definitely a contingent like that on MN, but I think the tide is turning here, as with the general public. It's the cumulative effect of a number of factors.

Some more data for the thread

Latest estimates from ukhsa showing boosters provide less protection against OmiCron and starts to wane after 5 weeks. Cases still increases at between 1.5 and 2 days per region.

Seems more likely the government are biding their time rather than holding their nerve

If they start to wane delaying further by slowing infection will be an issue too.