Hope the Govt keeps its nerve

[Wizzbangfizz]

Against another lockdown?

I know it is back bench pressure keeping us from where wales and Scotland are going to be/are. Due to that though I think we have a chance of coming through this - seeing it out and hopefully getting on with it on 2022 (I'd except back to tables in hospitality) - especially in light of the 10-7 days isolation reduction now?

Of course the media has played a huge role throughout in determining behaviour across the public.

We are low in enforcement but high in behaviour change through messaging.

@bordermidgebite They might not control the media but they certainly have a very cozy relationship and influence over the types of headlines and narratives that are pushed in certain newspapers.

SAGE includes behaviour change experts which then feeds into messaging which is amplified by the media

It’s been a key tool throughout and very effective

More so than trying to enforce in other ways

Actually might be Spi B looking at this www.gov.uk/government/groups/independent-scientific-pandemic-influenza-group-on-behaviours-spi-b

How do Long Covid sufferers earn a livelihood?

I’ve switched to 100% online teaching. I bought a tripod and a flexible arm device holding thingie, so if I need to recline back I can adjust the camera so with the right angle and a blurred background it kind of looks like I’m sitting up (ish). I’ve fired my “hard to teach” students. Replaced them with new ones. Spread the workload over 6 days instead of 4 and limited the number of lessons each day accordingly. I’ve left adequate space between each lesson so I can rest. All clients are offered 100% flexibility with no penalties so I can ask the same in return, cos some days are Not Good.

I can’t regenerate brain matter to replace the holes left by covid. I can’t guarantee I’ll be able to stand without falling over everyday. Some days I just can’t stand up. But I’ll be damned if covid is going to take the business I built from nothing from me.

I personally would prefer it if people could consider not using the entirety of people with long covid and permanently harmed by covid as a trump card that bundles us into a club to whack at those who disagree with them.

We aren’t a homogeneous clump of now destroyed human beings who can’t work or be productive. And some of us have spent more time and energy on the solutions to get around the limitations we’ve been left with than we get credit for when we are labelled “sufferers”.

I’m not who I was, but I’ll be damned if this stupid virus gets to take bits of my brain AND redefine me as a sufferer rather than the whole, rounded, multi faceted, resilient human being I turned myself into through decades of slog, sweat, tears and lugging my locus of control to the more useful side.

Perhaps consider at least sticking a “some” in front of “long covid” and trying “people with” rather than “sufferers”.

Apologies for the language policing but as somebody who has been stuffed in victim boxes before, it can be most unhelpful for some people to see and hear themselves relentlessly described in a positivity squishing light.

It's not, but even if it was, that's better than people dying.

But that's a 'choice' you've invented in your own head, for emotional blackmail purposes.

It's not as if people are going to die just because restaurants and cafes are busy. Schools are likely much more of a transmission problem. Should we close them too?

Other business/jobs will start up.

What a callous attitude. If we keep all these 'measures' in place, as you seem to be arguing, what jobs are going to replace the millions of jobs which are directly or indirectly associated with hospitality?

Hope so . Let freedom prevail even freedom to infect others. We need to put normal life above state restrictions this time. I am very grateful to the 99 MPs - Tories - who voted against the Government even though they still did not prevail as Labour hates freedom in common with all socialist states.

I heard there were plenty of jobs in cyber for dancers...

@AchillesLastStand

Well Australia has surging cases of omicron and the PM there has said no more lockdowns. They’re going for herd immunity through natural infection now most people who want the vaccine have had it.

I can see our government going down a similar path if the data points in the right direction with very light mitigations like the numbers that can get together in hospitality settings. I don’t think schools will close over this. I can’t see what purpose it would serve. Hopefully we’re over the worst ( for now!).

Wow that's a big turn around as they have pretty draconian up to now. Are they still having the covid camps?

Well Australia has surging cases of omicron and the PM there has said no more lockdowns. They’re going for herd immunity through natural infection now most people who want the vaccine have had it.

Very sensible imo. As omicron is relatively mild, it makes sense to let it spread and build up immunity without overwhelming hospitals!

@bordermidgebite there’s seems to be a disconnect between what the government are saying re restrictions not needed and what is actually happening in the NHS
I’ve never seen so many exhausted depressed staff

We were told merry Christmas you will all be redeployed to deal with the incoming wave yesterday

It looks like deaths from covid are actually falling (this week vs past week) - as reported by the BBC

@Blubells that’s great news, I think it’s the shear number of cases and staff sickness that is what’s been planned for.
I so feel for people awaiting surgery and appointments who won’t get them, I’ve never felt so demoralised.

A smaller percentage but huge cases will be a lot of patients

It's really hard to judge what they'll do but I really don't think full lockdown.

Such positive figures out today about how less virulent omricon is- 40-60%. And considering coronavirus cause common colds there really is hope this will be the start of variant's that are more mild. Hopefully less transmissible but I guess if it's just a cold and very mild eventually that won't matter and hers immunity may actually exist?

Some restrictions may be necessary to protect services. After all if it's twice as transmissible but half as virulent the figures won't really change much (if my maths is right ).

Yes, the underfunded nhs is a problem unfortunately, especially in winter.

The issue with the NHS is yes its underfunded and i support campaigns to better fund a more efficient NHS but that isnt an instant solution and will take time.

So my concern is the now. The exhausted staff and the cancelled apptointments and the impact of this wave.
I would feel reasured if i felt that should we or pur children get sick with covid, sock with non covid or have an accident that we would be getting the medical care we needed but at the moment i feel this is at risk and that is a worry

i support campaigns to better fund a more efficient NHS but that isnt an instant solution and will take time.

But it isnt happening.

The tories are ideologically opposed to it.

There comes a point where people are sick of curtailing significant aspects of their lives to maintain the illusion there is a functioning health service.

In the longer run it's counterproductive anyway, as restrictions create further, additional problems for the health service.

So yes the nhs is an enormous problem, but lockdowns don't solve anything at all, they just allow the government to avoid the issue, while causing huge harm to many.

@TheKeatingFive

So yes the nhs is an enormous problem, but lockdowns don't solve anything at all, they just allow the government to avoid the issue, while causing huge harm to many.

Exactly this.

@Blubells

Well Australia has surging cases of omicron and the PM there has said no more lockdowns. They’re going for herd immunity through natural infection now most people who want the vaccine have had it.

Very sensible imo. As omicron is relatively mild, it makes sense to let it spread and build up immunity without overwhelming hospitals!

What we should have done from day 1. The media created a monster and fuelled peoples fears of a virus with a very successful surivival rate.

This whole pandemic is driven by fear, mis leading presentation of data and a complete absence of logical and analytical response to ACTUAL data.

People see 25 deaths a day and freak out, this is based on people not having a point of comparison.

In 2019 604707 people died of heart related issues.
11,531 of them were under 35

That is 31 under 35 year olds passed away due to heart attacks only, not includings cancer.

Sadly people die, however, this strange 'one death is too many' mindset is worrying.

Imagine the governent, who claims that sole purpose is to keep us safe threw the Covid Billions at

• Reducing Obesity
• Improving cancer treatment and diagnosis
• Improving the woeful mental health service

It is madness, and I can not see an end, now we are in the loop.

@TheKeatingFive

So yes the nhs is an enormous problem, but lockdowns don't solve anything at all, they just allow the government to avoid the issue, while causing huge harm to many.

I think this is now where we're at. I've supported earlier lockdowns but I am far more sceptical that, this time, it would do enough good to be worthwhile.

I despise Johnson and give him no credit for however it works out. His decisions are wholly based on 'what's best for me?' But let's just hope for all our sakes that the death rate stays pretty flat, as it seems to be doing atm.

"After all if it's twice as transmissible but half as virulent the figures won't really change much (if my maths is right grin)."

It might half as virulent but it is far more infectious. Combined with the short generation time it will spread far faster than measles even.

I mean if it causes half the hospitalisations as delta with the same level of infections it would have the same number 2 days later but 2 days after that it could be twice the hospitalisations.

Figures I've seen suggest delta was 95% protective against hospitalisations and more like 99% boosted. Early estimates for Omicron are around 80% ish so that could be 4 times as many people in hospital with a doubling time of days not weeks like delta.

@walksen

"After all if it's twice as transmissible but half as virulent the figures won't really change much (if my maths is right grin)."

It might half as virulent but it is far more infectious. Combined with the short generation time it will spread far faster than measles even.

I mean if it causes half the hospitalisations as delta with the same level of infections it would have the same number 2 days later but 2 days after that it could be twice the hospitalisations.

Figures I've seen suggest delta was 95% protective against hospitalisations and more like 99% boosted. Early estimates for Omicron are around 80% ish so that could be 4 times as many people in hospital with a doubling time of days not weeks like delta.

'Might be' 'may' 'if it' 'could be' 'suggest' 'could be'

Not one reference to acual fact or data.

This right here is the issue.

Doom and Gloom modelling based on worst case scenario ONLY, and not building more likely secnarios into them.

I don't believe Australia won't lock down again.

Every single person I’ve known with C19 in the last three weeks - and there’s a) a lot of them and b) very likely therefore, it was also Omicron - recovered within 48 hours. A mild sniffles for a few days, but nothing long lasting and certainly nothing requiring medical intervention. All ages and differing states of health too.

If this is the standard pattern Omicron is following all over the country, you would have to be extremely unlucky to get seriously ill so I suspect hospitalisations will remain low.

Also, in view of the mildness of Omicron, I think reducing the isolation period was an excellent idea. I spent 8 days stuck at home feeling 100% kicking my heels.

"Not one reference to acual fact or data."

Not true. Doubling time is well established as 2 days. Efficacy of vaccines also known to be lower.

Still lots of uncertainty but it really is not as simple as it's half as severe so no problemo is it?

Easy to say what about doom and gloom but with doubling time so fast wait and see could end up really shit for all the NHS staff who are on their knees already and likely to have leave cancelled etc next week.