Why do people keep saying the unvaccinated are what’s keeping the pandemic going?

[Keytomyheart]

That would be true if the vaccinated couldn’t catch it and spread it, but they can.

So how are the unvaccinated prolonging this? Because I’m not understanding it.

Btw I am vaxxed, but not decided on booster yet.

I had almost asymptomatic covid back in October last year, and still have antibodies. My colleagues only discovered they had had covid after antibody tests were given, so it isnt true that mild cases do not result in antibodies.

Reinfection is not common.

@labtest57

Reinfection is not common.

Shit. You had better tell the researchers at Imperial.

"The new report (Report 49))_ from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%."

Chloe, the report mentioned in your quote is out of date. ICNARC reports are published weekly and the latest one now includes characteristics of patients admitted to critical care from May-November by vaccination status. It shows that the % of unvaccinated people in critical care fell from 75% in May to 48% in November.

“The percentage of patients admitted to critical care with confirmed COVID-19 that were unvaccinated decreased from 75% in May 2021 to 48% in November 2021 (Figure 27), consistent with the decreasing proportion of the general population who were unvaccinated.”

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/e7be23e7-695f-ec11-9139-00505601089b

Yes, overall more unvaccinated people have been admitted to critical care than vaccinated (iirc - ~58% unvaccinated or 63% if you include single doses) and if you compare like with like, an unvaccinated person is more likely to be admitted than a vaccinated person. But, according to the most recent data 48% in CC were unvaccinated in November, so significantly lower than the 73% from that quote which was based on older data.

And you are completely overlooking the risk of re-infection and the increased likelihood than Alpha/Delta antibodies aren't going to matter to Omicron.*

But if you have got yourself vaccinated why do you care that I'm not? You've done what you believe to be the right choice for you. I'm just doing the same for me. I've cant remember the last time I used the NHS for anything, probably not since my youngest was born so I'm hardly creating a huge strain.
I'm not terrified of catching this virus again, if I do I do. They've already said that while Omicron is more transmittable the symptoms seem less severe. I don't see the need to be terrified of it.

@bumbleymummy

Chloe, the report mentioned in your quote is out of date. ICNARC reports are published weekly and the latest one now includes characteristics of patients admitted to critical care from May-November by vaccination status. It shows that the % of unvaccinated people in critical care fell from 75% in May to 48% in November.

“The percentage of patients admitted to critical care with confirmed COVID-19 that were unvaccinated decreased from 75% in May 2021 to 48% in November 2021 (Figure 27), consistent with the decreasing proportion of the general population who were unvaccinated.”

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/e7be23e7-695f-ec11-9139-00505601089b

Yes, overall more unvaccinated people have been admitted to critical care than vaccinated (iirc - ~58% unvaccinated or 63% if you include single doses) and if you compare like with like, an unvaccinated person is more likely to be admitted than a vaccinated person. But, according to the most recent data 48% in CC were unvaccinated in November, so significantly lower than the 73% from that quote which was based on older data.

Please read the explanation properly.

This is in the passage explaining the methodology of how they eliminated the confounders of varying levels of vaccination in the population.

That reflects the decrease in numbers, not the proportion.

The actual numbers were given in the table immediately following that discussion:

unvaccinated 5065
vaccinated 1shot 377
vaccinated 2shots 3151

This has been repeatedly explained on the thread.

Chloe, the report mentioned in your quote is out of date.
I was stating that that was what was said in the Full Facts report that the poster I was quoting stated (hence not this week that they claimed). It was them that was out of date and not showing the full picture-not me.

I then go on to mention the exact same article that you repeatedly post from ICNARC but you’ve missed that.

ICNARC reports are published weekly and the latest one now includes characteristics of patients admitted to critical care from May-November by vaccination status. It shows that the % of unvaccinated people in critical care fell from 75% in May to 48% in November.

And on that same article at the bottom of that page in ICNARC is Rate of admission to critical care with confirmed COVID-19 by vaccination status for patients admitted 1 May 2021 to 15 November 2021 which shows overall, the rates were higher in the unvaccinated to critical care.

It is so tiring when posters only post tiny quotes from articles and not the full picture but thank you for proving my point yet again. Much appreciated.

The reality is that vaccination reduces risk on a number of levels.

You are less likely to catch it.
If you do, you are less likely to spread it.
You are less likely to need to go to hospital.
Even if you do, you are less likely to need intensive support like ICU.

All of the above is well researched and evidenced. However, it is statistical, these vaccinations are not iron clad immunity to catching it, nor will they 100% keep you out of hospital.

The reality is, sadly, that few understand statistics and, unless they are guaranteed immunity, they fail to understand the benefit, either to themselves or society. They should either educate themselves or believe the experts. There are no other choices.

Unmentioned and Chloe. You both seem to have missed my last paragraph. :)

@labtest57

Reinfection is not common.

No?

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-13

In the section about infection-induced immunity, there is reference to a study which showed that neutralising antibodies in people previously infected with Alpha, Beta and Delta COMPLETELY failed to attach to Omicron unless those people had also been vaccinated. The blog of course goes on to point out that antibodies are not the whole story when it comes to our capability of fighting infection, but still.

@bumbleymummy

Unmentioned and Chloe. You both seem to have missed my last paragraph. :)

Oh no, I read it. Look what month that graph from that same article goes up to.

November, just like I stated and just as was stated in the quote I posted. What point do you think you’re actually making?

@bumbleymummy

November, just like I stated and just as was stated in the quote I posted. What point do you think you’re actually making?

No the report you are linking to is dated 17th December not November as you keep stating.

Yes, I know when it is dated. The reports are released weekly, on Fridays. I’m talking about the data in the report irt characteristics by vaccination status. It goes up to November, as they stated themselves.

Again, what point do you think you are making?

@bumbleymummy

November, just like I stated and just as was stated in the quote I posted. What point do you think you’re actually making?

As usual, you are not getting it. Your last paragraph states ‘but according to the most recent data 48% in CC were unvaccinated in November’ and I am also stating in your same article, in the same month that ‘Rate of admission to critical care with confirmed COVID-19 by vaccination status for patients admitted 1 May 2021 to 15 November 2021’ shows a higher number of unvaccinated than one or two dose patients.

It’s not us who is not understanding. You can ignore that graph and data in the very article you keep quoting but I can always keep showing it. It’s just what you always do however.

Actually, I think the problem is that you think I’m saying something that I’m not. You’re talking about rates of admission (which I did refer to in the last paragraph of that pp) and I am talking about the actual percentage of cc patients - 48% in November, as they stated in the report.

And the reason I’m talking about actual percentages rather than rates is because people keep making statements such as ‘90%/75%/the vast majority’ of icu patients are unvaccinated’ which isn’t currently correct and is fuelling hatred/resentment etc.

@labtest57 has that been proven that the immunity you get from having the disease protects more than what you get from the vaccine? I know that for some other diseases such as chicken pox that isn't true and you get the best protection from the jab rather than disease

Actually, I think the problem is that you think I’m saying something that I’m not. You’re talking about rates of admission (which I did refer to in the last paragraph of that pp) and I am talking about the actual percentage of cc patients - 48% in November, as they stated in the report.

No, your article is very clear to say that your percentage is the Percentage of admissions to critical care with confirmed COVID-19 by vaccination status for patients admitted 1 May 2021 to 15 November 2021 compared with the general population - the compared with the general population part being important. I have posted the graph that illustrates what the article means.

Again, I really don’t think you fully understand it.

I understand it perfectly. What percentage were in ICU in November?

The ‘compared with the general population’ from the legend of the chart that you’re talking about (figure 27) is referring to the orange lines - its showing how the numbers of unvaccinated people are going down and the numbers of vaccinated are increasing over time in relation to the blue bars that show percentage vaccinated in the time period May-November.

Sorry - the blue bars that show percentage of unvaccinated, one dose and two doses.

Everyone keeps saying the unvaccinated are taking up all the hospital beds but the published data shows 48% of people in ICU are unvaccinated. Page 46

t.co/uTWru2NrQr

Its misdirected anger. The NHS does not have the capacity it should for the size of the population. Its mismanagement of the NHS by the government for decades. They are trying to redirect the blame. Thats why there's a winter crisis every bloody year. Covid patients are not the real problem.

Boris Johnson on news this morning saying Drs are telling him that 90% of patients in ICU have not had the booster. He seemed quite frustrated by this, so I think policy change is coming.

If you’ve not had your booster yet, I’d book it soon. Because when restrictions are announced for the unvaxxed, there will be a surge in demand.