Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Piggyinblankets

It relates to a Times article about data scientists being rock gods, yes.

I was going to say the Times but had hoped they'd be better than that!

Most assuredly not!

@amicissimma

Thanks, *@Postdatedpandemic*, I can read the OP and find the raw data. But many of the links posted are just opinion and there are many, many threads on here posting opinion links. This is the data thread, the one place where I, and I don't believe I am alone, look for actual data, rather than this poster's preferred opinion or that poster's preferred opinion.

And I am perfectly capable of working out how 'sound' (so often a matter of opinion again) a link is without anyone 'letting me know'.

Perhaps we should just let this become yet another 'look what this person I agree with thinks' thread and give up on actual data and stats, without having to refer back to the links in the OP.

There are no thread police. If you don't like what you read scroll by. Censorship is unhelpful. These threads have been running since the beginning, the core is data- the conversation and links helix around it. Data isn't sterile and a thread with just numbers wouldn't be as well populated.

email to say my PCR was arriving today

then this

Sorry, we were unable to deliver your parcel from Covid 19 Home Testing Programme today, Sunday, 19 December 2021. We will attempt to deliver it on the next working day.

For clarity - in all day ,no post all week as our service is dire here (SE London )

Is that because the journalist who reported Onicron first was a woman…

Are you thinking of Angelique Coetzee, the SA physician, who was the first one to report on Omicron?

I was initially sceptical about her comments and googled her credentials and her earlier statements during the pandemic. The woman is a “real deal” and probably knows more about Covid than many other medical professionals and public health advisors.

I don’t know if she is right about Omicron being mild “across the board” but I think we should take her views seriously. She is certainly aware that new cases might look “milder” due to prior infections/vaccinations and she has made it clear she has considered these factors before sharing her opinions. The SA picture might indeed be very different from the rest of the world (e.g. they have a significant “immunity wall” from the Beta wave) but we should not be dismissing experiences and input from Angelique Coetzee. In fact, we should take them very seriously and consider why SA wave looks the way it does.

Even if that only means “in any UK Boots or warehouse”, that’s quite relevant to the numbers isn’t it?

Still picked some today from my climbing gym, I do suspect London and other omicron areas have real problems with distribution as well as capacity.

We do really need to discourage people from using loads of them needlessly though (after testing positive, taking 4 tests to confirm etc.)

You are supposed to test daily at the moment though if you are an Omicron contact...

We do really need to discourage people from using loads of them needlessly though (after testing positive, taking 4 tests to confirm etc

link ?

re LFts we were told to test daily as household contacts

peridito mumsnet threads, twitter threads, showing multiple tests after the first one is positive, reports of how they kept testing positive through days 3,4,5 etc. Or every few hours.

@AnyFucker

I have tried to order some LFTs this evening and told they are currently unavailable

@AnyFucker, try first thing in the morning. A friend mentioned this to me and I was able to order this morning. I wondered if perhaps they only take so many orders a day as there's only so much capacity to process the orders?

Yes I think there is a daily capacity limit - always has been but never reached.

I think ( anecdotally) that PCR tests are slower coming back than they have been. I did a test yesterday at 10:00 am and I am still waiting for result. For months they have usually been back within 24 hours here!

Very similar to last year. DH took one on the Sunday and we finally got the positive test result on Thursday so well over 72 hours.

Daily change in reported cases by specimen date for England though

71702 cases in total today
14785 today's specimen date - LFD's and pillar 1 PCR's mostly I believe - ~26% same date, but not really indicative of community PCR testing
~56% specimen day before
~13% specimen 2 days before
~7% specimen 3 days before
~1.6% specmen 4 days before.

London is 20%,52%,20%,6%,1% so if anything a slight delay from 1 to 2 but less 3 to 4, but not indicative of hugely different performance for London (less 3/4 would suggest to me postal tests in more rural areas often take longer as you would imagine)

Boys possibly has the past data to say if this is much different to previous times of course.

@Firefliess

Some people were speculating that fewer people might be testing currently as they don't want to miss Christmas - I just had a look at last year's data to see if this happened last year - no sign of it in the data. The only day when you can see a clear drop in testing or cases is Christmas Day itself (followed by higher than expected numbers on the 26th/27th). So delays in testing still a possibility (Fred points out some good reasons why there might be delays even if lab capacity is not an issue) But doesn't seem likely we'd suddenly see a drop in testing when it's 10 days to Christmas, as we didn't last year.

There was no public access to LFTs last year, only NHS staff, so people couldn't test unless they had symptoms. I remember DS was given a precious LFT by a friend who is a GP so that he could test before visiting us.

This time round there may be less incentive to get a pcr to confirm a lft+

Completely anecdotal obvs but my pcr at 6pm on Friday was back by 7 am the next morning. But this area of the north east isn't as crazy as other areas yet. And that lab is always very fast. (Far too much experience now!) We were worse a few weeks ago. Just ordered lft too.

Having said that we've jumped up by around 30% in the last few days!

@EducatingArti

I think ( anecdotally) that PCR tests are slower coming back than they have been. I did a test yesterday at 10:00 am and I am still waiting for result. For months they have usually been back within 24 hours here!

DD took one around Oct half term & the result took 28 hours, DH took one Friday 9am, result yesterday midday (75 hours)

Thank you for the regulars who have kept these threads going, I can't believe it's coming up to 2 years 😔

When did LFTs become widely available? Was trying to remember with DH and we weren't sure.
This year we should be in so much of a better position than last Christmas - widespread vaccs and boosters, rapid testing available (well, in theory) - all things I thought would mean we'd be out of the woods at the start of all of this.

Clear widespread guidance on when to LFT, and when to PCR, would be useful.
I'm afraid to say some people in my family still seem very unclear on this - educated, professional people, getting muddled because they haven't been too engaged. (Or don't want to be).

Case numbers in schools next term are obviously a big worry for the education secretary who is trying to recruit retired teachers:

mobile.twitter.com/Independent/status/1472723669311012868

The responses made me chuckle. However what is extremely concerning is that this is the government's lack of a realistic plan to keep Children in school. They are clearly expecting very high numbers of cases, but are doing nothing to ensure schools can cope, especially in primary schools with no vaccinations.

Scroll on past if you are not interested.

A caller today with Nick Ferrari on lbc this morning was adamant that only 27 people were in hospital with covid and this figure was on the government website. He kept saying ' look it up '

The presenter tried to tell him it was around 7000 people, but he wasn't having it at all!
While people are in denial or reading the data incorrectly , we really are getting nowhere in convincing people how serious this situation is.

Quarantino , I was given my first box of lateral flow tests end of April this year from my employer ( school )

@the80sweregreat

A caller today with Nick Ferrari on lbc this morning was adamant that only 27 people were in hospital with covid and this figure was on the government website. He kept saying ' look it up '

The presenter tried to tell him it was around 7000 people, but he wasn't having it at all!
While people are in denial or reading the data incorrectly , we really are getting nowhere in convincing people how serious this situation is.

Quarantino , I was given my first box of lateral flow tests end of April this year from my employer ( school )

Was there a distinction between omicron and other?

People are mostly watching the former

The caller may have been just looking at the Omnicron stats, I didn't think of that.
The problem with lbc is everyone shouts over each other and the caller was not listening to NF at all, he was making it sound as if 27 was the total number of people in hospital with covid.
When will the data only show Omnicron and not just covid 19 or delta or alpha ?

My PCR result came through this morning, taking nearly 48 hours!
Also anecdotally, it was positive, so that is me isolating alone over Christmas!!