Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Oh no, sorry to hear that!! Hope you are OK.

My DF just got his PCR back in 19 hours, Scottish Borders. Negative, thankfully, as he has no spleen.

I'm not trying to police or censor anything. I was simply saying that I used to find the data and stats thread really interesting and helpful and that, to me, it was a pity that it was now filling up with people with particular agendas posting links that supported their own POV, which is the same as so many other threads on here. I appreciated having one thread, just one, that was different.

But it seems that others disagree and are happy for these threads to go the same way as all the others. So be it.

And, @Regulus, thanks for the helpful advice about scrolling on past the endless opinions. I can to do that without any advice, but I was previously enjoying not having to bother picking through the same old, same old to find the data and stats posts on this thread.

@EducatingArti

My PCR result came through this morning, taking nearly 48 hours! Also anecdotally, it was positive, so that is me isolating alone over Christmas!!

So sorry to hear that. 💐

15.2% positivity in Scotland.

Is that a new record?

I'm ok. So far have felt far more ill with an average cold. Just tired and bored.

Is that a new record?

Unlikely, remember in the beginning PCR resources were low enough that rates were in the 40%'s

In the alpha wave I'm pretty sure they were higher than that too, reached over 18% in England.

The other thing is that LFD's and isolation rules may well increase the percentage - as it adds people to test who are very likely to have it, in Alpha wave (unless I've misremembered) household contacts had no incentive to test but are much more likely to be positive, and similarly LFD positives will increase people PCR'ing who are extremely likely to have it, but had no symptom's etc. to encouraging testing otherwise.

Hospital admissions.

The last few days aren't in here yet.

www.datawrapper.de/_/VWaxG/

One thing to note on admissions, it's also number in hospital, one of the claimed features of omicron is shorter time in hospital (there was a graph I saw on twitter, which I didn't know the accuracy of that showed ICU times even in france had completely changed recently, and very much in SA).

Also remember some London boroughs in 20-30 year olds is showing 5% tested positive, if it's catching half the cases, that's 1 in 10 of any drunken fight / accident turning up to A+E is a covid admission.

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

15.2% positivity in Scotland.

Is that a new record?

Travelling Tabby says it's equal highest: twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1472952525544255489

We're getting a new colour on the cases map tomorrow. I wonder what colour they'll use for a rate of over 1600? My money's on some kind of red.

Those school staff having to go in were testing from mid or end of January, and iirc it was available for anyone who needed them by the time the (second) “roadmap” was announced. Moonshot etc etc…..

I just looked at the government data site and 15th December seems to have been updated to 102,000 cases in the UK on that day?

@Sasketchewoo

I just looked at the government data site and 15th December seems to have been updated to 102,000 cases in the UK on that day?

Yep, that's right by specimen date. Case numbers reported today still similar to last few days though, so not rising as fast as we might have expected this time last week even in London.

London hospital numbers rising, but less steeply than this time last year, and - importantly - numbers in ICU still flat. That suggests that the recent hospital admissions are either milder or incidental ones more often than before (admissions have been rising for a good two weeks now in London - these people would have started reaching ICU if they were going to). No sign as yet of a big surge in very ill people. It could of course come in January after the intergenerational mixing at Christmas, but I do think at present that the data is inconclusive and very hard to call.

Admissions at circa 900 a day (and delayed data), but numbers in hospital (more recent data) are pretty stable.
And ventilated also stable.
So assume for every 1,000 in, we are getting 1,000 out.
At the moment.

so not rising as fast as we might have expected this time last week even in London

It's beginning to look like the 15th is a/the peak for London cases, I think 16/17/18th will struggle to get enough now. Question is how much is this constrained by testing delays, how much by rapid behaviour change (ie people stopping going to pubs etc. which just means we move to a slower growth than the insane pub replication super-spreading events) But the 50k by christmas looks out.

London admissions / in hospital numbers that are 3 days worth are way better than I was expecting, essentially no increase in ventilation, and even for a Monday morning (fewer discharges over the weekend) the number in hospital hasn't grown as I feared. So even the 200 patients a day in London do perhaps suggest lower severity at the moment.

"Case numbers reported today still similar to last few days though, so not rising as fast as we might have expected this time last week even in London"

I wonder if people are starting to avoid testing so close to christmas?

I think people are just managing at home and not testing etc. they probably don't see the point. They should do really , but this close to Christmas you can't blame people

sirfredfredgeorge

"It's beginning to look like the 15th is a/the peak for London cases,"

15th was the last day to test positive before having to isolate over christmas. Could that be a factor?

I gave some suggestions on what you'd see in the data, if people simply weren't testing, if you're going to suggest the reason is "not testing", can we please try and come up with some evidence for it, people have repeatedly and consistently followed the rules. If there was a massive change in behaviour around testing we should be able to see evidence of it.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Admissions at circa 900 a day (and delayed data), but numbers in hospital (more recent data) are pretty stable. And ventilated also stable. So assume for every 1,000 in, we are getting 1,000 out. At the moment.

That's really positive, let's hope that continues. There's a good study from Denmark which also shows Omicron-related hospital admissions are at around 0.6% compared to around 1.5% for Delta hospitalizations

source here twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1472921168579641346

@sirfredfredgeorge

so not rising as fast as we might have expected this time last week even in London

It's beginning to look like the 15th is a/the peak for London cases, I think 16/17/18th will struggle to get enough now. Question is how much is this constrained by testing delays, how much by rapid behaviour change (ie people stopping going to pubs etc. which just means we move to a slower growth than the insane pub replication super-spreading events) But the 50k by christmas looks out.

London admissions / in hospital numbers that are 3 days worth are way better than I was expecting, essentially no increase in ventilation, and even for a Monday morning (fewer discharges over the weekend) the number in hospital hasn't grown as I feared. So even the 200 patients a day in London do perhaps suggest lower severity at the moment.

Good to read. Hopefully holding has avoided the damage of harsher restrictions

It would be good to have data on numbers for people either not testing ,or as I believe testing but not reporting . But I don't think there is any .

Is there data on how many postal PCRs are sent out and the how many returned per day/week/month ?

My personal experience is that LFT's are being used and that people are being guided by positive results without getting a confirmation by PCR .

So, on the 15th 611,437 PCR tests conducted. On the 17th 620,291, only 523k, 564k on the 19th, numbers have generally been down on weekends, and sat/sun still well up on the previous sat/sun. So we still have a big increase in testing, and still have the biggest day being after the 15th

peridito but some testing is much less discretionary than others, and surely you'd have different behaviour by age if it was purely to avoid isolation?

So Pillar 1 are not discretionary, and we do see a drop in these!! but then that is to be expected as elective admissions are wound down for Christmas / in anticipation of covid cases. No massive change in positivity, which is what you'd expect if cases were really much higher due to lack of testing elsewhere.

Pillar 2 still running well in excess of any previous period other than early march (anyone know why there were so many then?) 50%+ above early December.

Is anywhere apart from Lambeth at 1,600 cases per 100,000 at the moment?