Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Helensburghmiddleagedmum

I wonder whether some people are avoiding tests because they don't want to isolate for 10 days, maybe there are a lot more people with covid than we realise

Oh dear god.

Someone's mum told one of my kids that she's got a bit of a scratchy throat and that so she's "not testing and messing up all our Christmases."

(My kid tried to do a slow and subtle step backwards away from her.)

@sirfredfredgeorge

Wanna - but she should have appeared in the figures on Wednesday, so that's 4 days after the likely infection incident, seems pretty fast to me?

Because of the LFT?

Yeah.

Assuming she logged it.

That wasn't mentioned.

If LFD tests are counted in the figures, is the PCR counted again when that comes back positive or is it counted as one case?

Thanks, @Postdatedpandemic, I can read the OP and find the raw data. But many of the links posted are just opinion and there are many, many threads on here posting opinion links. This is the data thread, the one place where I, and I don't believe I am alone, look for actual data, rather than this poster's preferred opinion or that poster's preferred opinion.

And I am perfectly capable of working out how 'sound' (so often a matter of opinion again) a link is without anyone 'letting me know'.

Perhaps we should just let this become yet another 'look what this person I agree with thinks' thread and give up on actual data and stats, without having to refer back to the links in the OP.

@JanglyBeads

Overton Window?

The theory is that politicians are limited in what policies they can support as they risk losing voters if they pursue ideas that are not seen as legitimate options by society.

Pressure groups actively work to change public perception of the options and move the Overton Window.

To give an example, National Front policies were considered extreme and fringe 40 years ago.

And now a lot of them are official government policy.

The Overton Window has been moved.

www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow#overview

www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-overton-window

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.theweek.co.uk/102517/the-overton-window-explained%3fam

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/us/politics/overton-window-democrats.amp.html

One case - it’s called deduplicating or deduping

@RagzReturnedUnwrapped

If LFD tests are counted in the figures, is the PCR counted again when that comes back positive or is it counted as one case?

Just one.

I don't know which one counts though.

Does the PCR supersede the LFT?

@JanglyBeads

One case - it’s called deduplicating or deduping

And there's something I'd never heard of.

I thought that testing had increased overall in the UK (well over a million per day now?). It was certainly x 2 of that of France for some time.
My opinion (worth nothing of course) is that it is too late to do much now for the current wave. We have an immune system so if someone has had delta before then omicron isn’t going to be fatal.

But most of the tweets posted (ok many by me recently) contain often new data and analysis of it.

Didn’t these threads used to be called Data and Analysis, or is the latter only mentioned in the OP?

Does the PCR supersede the LFT?

It's recorded as LFD confirmed by PCR.

Thanks Fred.

Agreed Jangly.

Some people were speculating that fewer people might be testing currently as they don't want to miss Christmas - I just had a look at last year's data to see if this happened last year - no sign of it in the data. The only day when you can see a clear drop in testing or cases is Christmas Day itself (followed by higher than expected numbers on the 26th/27th). So delays in testing still a possibility (Fred points out some good reasons why there might be delays even if lab capacity is not an issue) But doesn't seem likely we'd suddenly see a drop in testing when it's 10 days to Christmas, as we didn't last year.

I suspect most are testing fairly regularly on LFT - so if they hold up to be effective as per the Liverpool study that is a positive sign.

I think the problem is that it is just so unclear. The media is incredibly mixed about it - even individual newspapers can have both downbeat and positive stories.

Personally I think going for a lockdown is not the way forward. I would go for a mix of Step 2 and Step 3 with maybe testing and vaccine passports mixed in. Something like we had in May last year. But they should be bringing that in NOW rather than waiting and it having to go further.

The Netherlands will be interesting though as there is no guarantee it is going to work

Whilst I don't want to suggest that people aren't following the rules - every other time people have suggested it of all sorts has pretty much turned out untrue, people have repeatedly followed the rules.

But, last year there were huge restrictions, which made it pretty irrelevant if you actually had a test or not - this time, isolating is more significant, so that could change. However the availability of LFD's may well mean that even if people are unwilling to formally be locked down, they will still test and avoid the vulnerable.

I'm not convinced given the repeated anecdotes of "everyone tested before" and "everyone caught it" is that indicative of testing being that successful anyway, the growth speed of omicron seems high enough that it negative at lunchtime before you enter the restaurant, to singing impromptu karaoke in the pub at 10pm is enough to turn you into a super-spreader. No actual confirmation of that of course, but so many "everyone tested before christmas and we all still caught it" anecdotes.

This time last year there were ?500 deaths a day I think - that tends to focus people’s minds more! And less “fatigue” maybe?

Just seen a pic (on Twitter!) of a sign in an Isle of Wight Boots apologising for lack of LFTs and saying there’s none in whole of the UK…

Even if that only means “in any UK Boots or warehouse”, that’s quite relevant to the numbers isn’t it? Especially when taken together with lack of postal or walk-in PCRs at some points last week.

A year ago we moved to tier 3, and a year tomorrow tier 4!

I have tried to order some LFTs this evening and told they are currently unavailable

@JanglyBeads

One case - it’s called deduplicating or deduping

Thank you. Which day is it counted on? Assume the LFD test day as that's sooner. Now more people are LFD testing and presumably reporting them online, maybe the daily figures will be more up to date?

@Wilma55

A year ago we moved to tier 3, and a year tomorrow tier 4!

A year ago tomorrow (monday) I was in tesco at 3am doing my last bit of Christmas food shopping, just in case... I know this because I'm a saddo and wrote it on my calendar.

@Firefliess

Some people were speculating that fewer people might be testing currently as they don't want to miss Christmas - I just had a look at last year's data to see if this happened last year - no sign of it in the data. The only day when you can see a clear drop in testing or cases is Christmas Day itself (followed by higher than expected numbers on the 26th/27th). So delays in testing still a possibility (Fred points out some good reasons why there might be delays even if lab capacity is not an issue) But doesn't seem likely we'd suddenly see a drop in testing when it's 10 days to Christmas, as we didn't last year.

That's interesting. I wonder though if this year may be different because by this time last year we knew we would not be mixing households, didn't we? Too many different variables to consider with regards to behaviour predictions I think. But it was definitely really quiet at the test site I went to today.

Just thought I would plonk this on here, not least for a list of people to follow. Some of you will know the backplot to all this!

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1472518914328473605

[quote Piggyinblankets]Just thought I would plonk this on here, not least for a list of people to follow. Some of you will know the backplot to all this!

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1472518914328473605[/quote]
Is that because the journalist who reported Onicron first was a woman and then a few days later there was a list of top people to follow and they were all white men?

It relates to a Times article about data scientists being rock gods, yes.