Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Thanks Sir Fred, that explains it!

Reported cases definitely not as high as we would have expected today, despite it being a Sunday. However the reference to "latency" does make me think it might be testing delays, at least in part.

Because data by specimen date are incomplete for the most recent dates, the figures shown are for the 7 days ending 5 days before the date when the website was last updated

I think this bit from the dashboard is what we have to remember. The 5 day old data is the most accurate and what the maps, LA rates etc are based on. The running daily cases are always subject to a bit of amendment. Some of the number pundits have access to the most recent data... and they have started expressing concern.

Thanks

So now Pouriaa has tweeted this, about incomplete Data - I have no idea what it means but it’s obviously not good:

twitter.com/pouriaaa/status/1472600616233050119?s=21

Also he mentions reinfection data being added in Jan, in the replies.

Hi sorry if someone had said already but why hospitalisations data is only updated through 13 Dec?

Millions of people changed their behaviour last week. Thousands of potential super spreader events didn't happen.

Plus it's a weekend, and some kids are off already.

I don't have any data on whether Delta is being out-competed by Omicron and Delta numbers are lower as a result.

Normal Omicron service will be resumed in a few days I expect.

Numbers looking lower to the casual observer won't help the government to make the case for more covid measures though.

So now Pouriaa has tweeted this, about incomplete Data - I have no idea what it means but it’s obviously not good

Surely we don't need to read more into it than "almost 100,000 cases and still not complete" - although he is of course wrong 'cos it's 4 days not 2 days (as he corrects himself) but it's also of course not got any Wales reporting, although that (shouldn't) be too high yet.

I think it's very unfair to read too much into the twitter pronouncements of someone who's simply responsible for the smooth running of an excellent service.

God. Yes.

Given that we know that detected cases are generally only ever about 49-50% of actual infections

And Omicron detected cases are considered to be an even lower percentage of actual infections.

To have back-filled detected cases of 96,397 two doublings ago is a wee bit alarming.

Hi sorry if someone had said already but why hospitalisations data is only updated through 13 Dec?

Nationwide hospital data is always that lag, and for areas that go with less, they still take the weekends off. Tomorrow we'll get London (and England of course) but it's been the same throughout.

I think there must be some testing delays. We're still waiting to hear postal pcr results from Wednesday - not lost, just waiting to be processed. I can't believe we're the only ones.

Surely all he is saying is that there still could be cases added to those dates in the figures for the next couple of days (presumably due to testing)

That said so many cant be still missing that it continues the doubling of two days

Sorry Fred and nutnuts, you’ve lost me? Or at least I thought I understood Fred but then nutnuts lost me again, sorry if am being dense!

Ah his reply correcting himself wan’t there when I posted the tweet.

@amicissimma

For a data thread there are an awful lot of links to opinion pieces and tweets.

Every 'scientist', mathematician, epidemiologist, biologist, journalist, etc and his/her dog seem to have a view to share.

Data is more than just columns of numbers.

I'm a fully fledged soft data hound. Covid policy is a political decision, so what certain people are saying is a better indicator of what's going to happen than the numbers.

Additionally, discussion of the issues and the numbers is more accessible and interesting to most of us than the bare numbers themselves.

Look at how the Overton Window on lockdown/circuit breaker has changed on here in the just few days.

That's data to someone like me.

According to the dashboard PCR testing is still well below capacity, if we believe that?

Overton Window?

According to the dashboard PCR testing is still well below capacity, if we believe that?

That's purely lab capacity, remember there are other sorts of capacity, and especially in a strongly rising, the availability of walk in tests can be reduced and postal tests (both for dispatch and the extra delay they produce) given the short warning of this could certainly have an impact without central capacity being full.

Especially as cases are I believe even more regionally dominated than before.

And of course LFD availability 'cos so many people seem to take multiple ones all the time.

@JanglyBeads

Overton Window?

Yeah, I had to Google that one too. I like the concept though, makes sense.

Went to a PCR test centre today, huge place with capacity to process dozens per hour. It was dead when we got there, we were the only people visiting and one other car pulled up while we were there. I've been half a dozen times and never seen it that quiet. Either being Sunday or so close to Christmas, I'm not sure. Anecdata, sorry!

Warning - this is not data and rather frivolous so you may want to scroll on by .But it did make me smile ,and it is sort of apt

I wonder whether some people are avoiding tests because they don't want to isolate for 10 days, maybe there are a lot more people with covid than we realise

Anecdata:

My friend got symptoms about 36 hours after her work do last weekend. (Massive Christmas party hotel with three rooms containing several different companies each, all using the same bars and loos.)

It didn't occur to her that it was covid, but the GP told her to take a lateral flow on Tuesday when she asked for antibiotics.
It was positive, so she took a PCR on Wednesday (first available at walk-in/drive in locally )

She saw the result that she had tested positive when she woke up on Saturday morning.

Until she told me this saga I didn't fully appreciate the amount of time it can take from "got infected" to "appears in the figures"

And that is making me wonder what next week will bring.

Helensbrughmiddleagedmum So if that's the case, how would it show up in the data?

A reduction in number of PCR's and LFD's registered?
A very large increase in positivity in pillar 1 (since the numbers would have to be even higher so more people appearing at hospital with it?)
A skewing upwards of the age rates - since older people would be more concerned for an accurate diagnosis for their own health?
What else?
(I don't see any evidence for any of those btw)

Wanna - but she should have appeared in the figures on Wednesday, so that's 4 days after the likely infection incident, seems pretty fast to me?