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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 10:55

Just in on hospital admissions (England):

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1476866234524311588

Approx 2/3 are admitted directly because of Covid.

boys3 · 31/12/2021 10:57

7 day average for deaths within 28 days by date of death in England - little changed with yesterday's numbers. This just looks at the Nov-Jan period (to best show the previous peak). Still a week lag applied as deaths - at any time of year - do take a little longer to feed through.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
boys3 · 31/12/2021 11:00

hospital admits per million population by English NHS region, only from start December, and based on the seven day average. London rate double that - bar the NW - of every other region. Which given its head start with Omicron is not a great surprise.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
boys3 · 31/12/2021 11:02

hospitalisations per million for English NHS regions, one based on seven day average and one on the absolute daily values.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
lonelyplanet · 31/12/2021 11:02

Here is the latest data for hospital treatment with primary diagnosis for covid by region:

mobile.twitter.com/jneill/status/1476856305411366930

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 11:03

Must stress I used Pagel's Tweet as it is the clearest thread I think. There are clearly already debates raging about interpretations (fwiw , I don't think it is great that a proportion of the 'other' is hospital acquired...)

There is another maybe more contentious thread from Stephen Reicher:

twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1476546400888442880

lonelyplanet · 31/12/2021 11:03

Sorry crossed posts boys!

boys3 · 31/12/2021 11:04

Nov-Jan comparisons for admissions and hospitalisations in England overall. All based on seven day averages, although I probably should create an absolute value comparison for hospitalisations. The seven day average is increasing rapidly but there is quite a gap with the current actual - as would also have been the case a year ago.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
DrBlackbird · 31/12/2021 11:07

Thanks for link lonelyplanet but unfortunately I’m not on Twitter so can’t fully follow those links. I think it’s saying percentage of Covid as primary diagnosis or cause of hospitalisations is falling? Is that right?

boys3 · 31/12/2021 11:08

full year comparison at NHS England region level for admissions.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
boys3 · 31/12/2021 11:10

and hospitalisations.

For both all these a Nov-Jan comparison will be added at some point.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 31/12/2021 11:10

Approx 2/3 are admitted directly because of Covid

no, as the John Roberts tweet shows, 2/3rd of in patients on any day are primary covid, there is no reason to assume that's the same as admissions.

Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 11:10

It's fallen slightly since early December blackbird if we average out across England. But the 'other' category included hospital acquired infection and those who have a condition made worse by Covid so not - as some would have it outside this thread- a load of people with broken ankles who happen to have Covid. Of course, this also is true of some of the admissions.

Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 11:11

@sirfredfredgeorge

Approx 2/3 are admitted directly because of Covid

no, as the John Roberts tweet shows, 2/3rd of in patients on any day are primary covid, there is no reason to assume that's the same as admissions.

That reading was challenged, though. But, yes, sorry you are correct.

Lots of debate on this on Twitter.

Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 11:13

However fred it does also state that some of these are hospital acquired , so it my be higher than admissions iyswim ? In otehr words, the number in hospital with Covid complications is higher than the number admitted?

BlackeyedSusan · 31/12/2021 11:16

Anacdata:
My kids were off waiting for PCR results when COVID vaccination happened in school. Took about three or four weeks to organise a replacement vaccination as at first it was going to be the school immunisation service, then the 12-15 service with no nearby appointments...then we finally got one in the next town.

My children were eligible 8 weeks after first (Christmas day) due to being CV but it was delayed a week due to flu vaccination.

All this means quite a lot of kids are coming up to 12 weeks in our area/school. Some areas have been earlier than others at getting vaccinations done.

Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 11:17

The vaccine roll out to 12-15 year olds ahs been shambolic. That's not even really anecdata...

BlackeyedSusan · 31/12/2021 11:17

It would be interesting to see if there is any difference between schools done early and those not so much.

amicissimma · 31/12/2021 11:20

The BBC report "Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron"

BlackeyedSusan · 31/12/2021 11:22

Our GPs were very good at fitting Ds in though as only one appointment was available and I took that for DD. They were fitting extra people in who were in the surgery for other things as there were lulls in the queue. (Probably variation in people's ability to be exactly on time.)

boys3 · 31/12/2021 11:22

shambolic - an overly generous assessment, a bit too much festive spirit there @Piggywaspushed. Staggeringly awful gets a bit closer.

OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 31/12/2021 11:25

Covid prevalence is more than double it's ever been in London, so any random individual attending hospital is more than twice as likely to have covid than ever before.

However hospital attendance is not random, particularly hospital attendance that requires in-patient care, that's much more likely in the elderly, the very young, the vulnerable and births. Rates in these groups are quite different to the average rate, which much reduces the likelihood of in-patients being coincidental - and even if it is incidental it's likely significant complications.

Most of the incidental admissions (broken ankle) would appear in the in-patient data for at most 1 day - same day or next day discharge - so are unlikely to change the stats much at all, and would be reasonably consistent (nights when there's more drinking would add a few)

It is encouraging that in patients with primary diagnosis is going down, but I think the ratio of admissions to in-patients, and average lengths of stay would be more revealing. Sadly not available though.

sirfredfredgeorge · 31/12/2021 11:29

However fred it does also state that some of these are hospital acquired , so it my be higher than admissions iyswim ? In otehr words, the number in hospital with Covid complications is higher than the number admitted?

Oh yes, we just don't really have a clue what's going on - although a hospital acquired infection appears as a new "admission" in the stats - I'm not sure it's that easy to get either as admissions obviously don't have an immediate diagnosis, they'll be treating symptoms up front.

I do think it's most likely that number of admissions is lower than the 2/3rds in patient data, because of the longer average stay of a covid patient, however there's reports in other countries that I've not seen here particularly that average stay of a primary covid patient is also going down. So it may not be.

I'm not sure it's super important, and it's certainly not evidence that supports or refutes any sort of policy, it's just evidence that indicates capacity requirements.

Piggywaspushed · 31/12/2021 11:30

@boys3

shambolic - an overly generous assessment, a bit too much festive spirit there *@Piggywaspushed*. Staggeringly awful gets a bit closer.
Well, yes... I was trying not to be hysterical ...
RachC2021 · 31/12/2021 11:37

@SecretKeeper1

I’ve just seen a test kit (box of 6) listed on eBay and someone’s bid £25 Shock

I’ve picked them up from chemists where I live, and have been able to get some whenever I’ve ordered online too. Maybe just been lucky.

Report them for price gouging if they’re the NHS ones.