Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

...now delayed until 8.30pm.

That's buggered their evenings up.

Can't help thinking they'd have been better off updating everything else for the usual time; giving a headline figure for deaths in England (assuming they have that) and saying all the usual related details will be part of tomorrow's update.

Tomorrow's update will be on time - dashboard NYE parties to get to. :)

as far as deaths within 28 days by date of death before update goes this is the picture through December so far. Daily deaths and seven day average; with the last week indicated as incomplete due to the reporting lags for deaths.

Plus just for the seven day moving average 2021 v 2020 - again before update

Keeping us waiting today aren't they? DH thinks that's because the numbers are too big. Think he's imagining them all sitting there counting beans

BBC News has some hospital numbers in their breaking news rolling bit - up 90% from the week before in England, daily admissions 2082.

@nordica

BBC News has some hospital numbers in their breaking news rolling bit - up 90% from the week before in England, daily admissions 2082.

It was 1751 yesterday in England so that's quite a sharp rise

189k cases not that bad 🤣

Similar cases to yesterday, though had hoped that had quite a bit of Christmas delay in it. More worrying, hospitalisations still rising sharply in London, even though cases appear to have peaked there around a week ago. I think the most likely explanation for this is that the age distribution of the people with covid is changing - more older people catching it (and fewer younger people)

@Firefliess

Similar cases to yesterday, though had hoped that had quite a bit of Christmas delay in it. More worrying, hospitalisations still rising sharply in London, even though cases appear to have peaked there around a week ago. I think the most likely explanation for this is that the age distribution of the people with covid is changing - more older people catching it (and fewer younger people)

Over the last two to three weeks Covid has spread up into older age groups in London and it still worsening. This could account for ongoing hospitalization increases even though total cases are now falling in London.

The over 90s now have an infection rate if 690 per 100k. And this age group likely got boosted over 3 months ago which again is a concern as some immunity may be waning.

And this age group likely got boosted over 3 months ago which again is a concern as some immunity may be waning

The booster provided minimal protection to serious illness, it was right around none once you offset the reduction in chance to catch it I believe - so I'm not sure we'll see much waning of protection from serious illness with the booster waning. Of course data was limited then and could gave biases in who had been boosted etc.

minimal ADDITIONAL protection of course - ie you were still well protected after, just as you were before.

Someone's tracking website messages about test availability recently, it's getting worse:

twitter.com/alexselby1770/status/1476621468859772928?s=21

I’ve just seen a test kit (box of 6) listed on eBay and someone’s bid £25

I’ve picked them up from chemists where I live, and have been able to get some whenever I’ve ordered online too. Maybe just been lucky.

Sorry, box of 7

Someone's tracking website messages about test availability recently, it's getting worse

Think what it must be like in countries who don't have the capacity the UK does!

I don't really know what the problem is with LFTs. I've always got them within 2-3 days of ordering online. Some came today

I’ve just saw updated numbers in The Guardian. Quite a jump in both hospitalisations and deaths… Can anyone tell me what age groups account for those increases? Is this what Whitby etc warned about? That once omicron spread to older population is when we might see the numbers go up. I’m wondering if my consolation that hospitalisations were stable was misplaced…

I know this is the data thread, but I think it is a perfect storm of the booster wearing off and Christmas mixing starting to come through. Unfortunately I think this is just the start.

@DrBlackbird

I’ve just saw updated numbers in The Guardian. Quite a jump in both hospitalisations and deaths… Can anyone tell me what age groups account for those increases? Is this what Whitby etc warned about? That once omicron spread to older population is when we might see the numbers go up. I’m wondering if my consolation that hospitalisations were stable was misplaced…

These figures looks worse due to Christmas.... Hospitalisations tend to increase over Christmas irrespective of Covid due to delays in discharges, and the deaths figure will include many of those that weren't reported over Christmas.

The lag id true of deaths but that is definitely not true of hospitalisations which are accelerating .

Twitter was an interesting place last night!

Discharges are reported to lag over christmas, and the ratio of admissions to in patients at 8am has increased over the days, so it's a bit depending on what "hospitalisations" means.

But I agree Piggy, admissions are absolutely up - but with well over 5% of the population would be a covid admission, which is a state we've never been in before.

The booster provided minimal additional protection to serious illness, it was right around none once you offset the reduction in chance to catch it I believe - so I'm not sure we'll see much waning of protection from serious illness with the booster waning

I'm not sure that I understand this correctly . I thought that people like me ,early 70s ,and having received two AZ vaccinations had their protection against catching Omricon (and therefore chance of becoming seriously ill with it) significantly increased by the booster .
But I expect I've misunderstood your post .

peridito - It increased the chance of you not catching omicron yes, and therefore not getting seriously ill, but it had no extra protection to getting seriously ill, so once it wanes you'll still be protected against serious illness, you'll just be no longer protected from a mild one.

I think I also disagree with "significantly increased", 70% effectiveness at best for risk reduction of infection is not that high with current prevalence, it's certainly not high enough for a socialite who visits pubs/restaurants/etc.

Thanks SirFred .I'm going to drink coffee and read your post outloud .I honestly think there's something wrong with my brain !

Here is a really clear explanation of the calculations around the number of hospitalisations with covid as the primary diagnosis.

mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1476863236913958912