Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@JanglyBeads

Yes re yr second point - I don't really understand how LFTs show peak infectious but can be neg yet you still infect someone. Can you have just a few hours infectiousness? I guess so.

I've seen the many graphs both observed and theoretical (sorry can't think of correct terminology) showing when LFDs are (likely to be) positive.

More than likely due to the nose and throat areas not being swabbed enough, and/or not being transferred into the solution properly.

With all the Nightingale talk this is always an interesting, albeit fairly long, read on provision of hospital beds over the past 30 years from the Kings Fund www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers.

For a quick skim figures 4, 5, and 6 worth a look.

More than likely due to the nose and throat areas not being swabbed enough, and/or not being transferred into the solution properly

I'm sorry ,and don't mean to be rude but I don't think remarks like this should be made unless we know poor swabbing is leading to false results .

Because of a delay in receiving deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. The current estimate for release is 7:30pm. Further updates will be provided here.

We'll have to open another tub of Quality Street (and some ) while we're waiting...

Explanation of delay today

twitter.com/tigressellie/status/1476582761368539139?s=21

I strongly suspect the numbers are high, and they have been told to recheck them.

Much more likely that what they tweet is true - they need to rerun a script that takes hours to finish due to late data.

(the numbers of course will be high, there's a weeks worth of deaths to arrive.)

The numbers have probably fallen of the end of a spreadsheet (again).

No. The dashboard team have been working all through Christmas -well at least from 26th - to bring us the best data possible given the situation.

@sirfredfredgeorge

(the numbers of course will be high, there's a weeks worth of deaths to arrive.)

Estimate of deaths is 417 but this includes 6 days of reporting.

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

The numbers have probably fallen of the end of a spreadsheet (again).

Nope, there was a late dump of data and the process is being run again.

That's an extremely positive figure to me - even with others still delayed from the Christmas time - but with prevalence also getting high during this time (increasing incidental with covid including patients catching it in hospital during EoL care as well everything else, London had 10% prevalence during the end of this, so even 1-2% with covid deaths make a difference) I think probably too positive and more delayed deaths to come, maybe weekend christmas meaning two bank holidays as well increases delays?

Remember some deaths HAVE been reported daily, 56 yesterday for eg.

Think it's just hospital deaths that are making up the backlog today

Not all Local Authorities are open between Christmas and New Year, so registrations in those areas will in not be included until well into next week.

True Jangly, there were 89 in total from the 4 dates with obviously incomplete data. So adding today that's just over 500 for 5 days - that's still lower than expected isn't it? It's been 120-130 a day hasn't it, and we would have expected to see an increase in London particularly based on the cases in London that were really quite high by the 15th, and the 7 day infection to death number, so that we haven't isn't encouraging.

But I think there's more still delayed, but maybe not too many so I'm feeling encouraged.

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

Not all Local Authorities are open between Christmas and New Year, so registrations in those areas will in not be included until well into next week.

Which upper tier councils in England close their death registration service on the normal working days between Christmas and New Year?

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

Not all Local Authorities are open between Christmas and New Year, so registrations in those areas will in not be included until well into next week.

Having worked in 6 local authorities, that's not my experience...

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

Because of a delay in receiving deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. The current estimate for release is 7:30pm. Further updates will be provided here.

We'll have to open another tub of Quality Street (and some ) while we're waiting...

more pertinently when did the green triangle ones start to shrink so much?

@JanglyBeads

Javid admits to LFT shortages

[[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/lateral-flow-tests-to-be-constrained-over-next-two-weeks-warns-sajid-javid?CMP=Share]]AndroidAppp_Other

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/welsh-government-loans-england-4m-more-covid-tests

Back to @JanglyBeads original link the huge demand surely given a far more transmissable variant; changes in policy; and public messaging was entirely predictable?

Just when you think you really couldn't make this stuff up

boys3 DH saves me the green triangles - he's a keeper.

DH and I have worked for 5 different LAs. Some opened (so would have only been open wed, thurs and fri this wk) and the bigger (unitary) one took AL off you and closed.

Maybe there's some arrangement for staff to cover (think weddings etc) but I doubt all of the offices will be open and working at normal capacity for appointments.

www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Wochenbericht/Wochenbericht_2021-12-30.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

German report showing they still have very low omicron (omikron!) but rising, but nothing like at double rates seen elsewhere, re-enforcing that lockdown works.

One thing though
186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben

186 patients unvaccinated, 4020 vaccinated of which 1137 boosted as well. So over 95% vaccination, this despite ~70% total vaccination. However I think the lockdown might impact this more than suggested as those still able to be out and about enough to be infected may well be more likely to be vaccinated? If not then prior infection does appear to be significantly better at preventing infection in Germany.

Mostly the news is that lockdown still does prevent omicron spread.

German links - it's like old times on here!

News said Wales are lending us some LFTs because they've got more in stock!

Came to post this, today's Zoe update. 1:30 in England have covid; 75% of "colds" are in fact covid

https://joinzoe.com/learn/new-omicron-variant#whats-the-latest-news-on-omicron?utmsource=covid-app&utmm_medium=referral

Update now at 8pm.