Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Can I ask for your big picture analysis please?

My current read is quite hopeful. I'm in the London epicentre so have been looking closely at London numbers (as has everyone).

So far it looks as though the huge case numbers aren't translating through to unmanageable hospitalisation rates. The case rate was doubling 3 weeks ago but hospital rates are only up 20% on the start of December so yes, increasing but not that markedly. And ventilator rates are fractionally up but nothing like earlier waves.

I know caveats - it's still early, there's a lag and so far cases have mostly been younger people.

BUT overall there aren't signs of impending disaster.

236000 school students off at the end of last term for Covid related reasons. There will be a lot of full or partial school closures in January.

inews.co.uk/news/education/schools-parents-remote-learning-teacher-absence-january-omicron-covid-1373033

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow

Can I ask for your big picture analysis please?

My current read is quite hopeful. I'm in the London epicentre so have been looking closely at London numbers (as has everyone).

So far it looks as though the huge case numbers aren't translating through to unmanageable hospitalisation rates. The case rate was doubling 3 weeks ago but hospital rates are only up 20% on the start of December so yes, increasing but not that markedly. And ventilator rates are fractionally up but nothing like earlier waves.

I know caveats - it's still early, there's a lag and so far cases have mostly been younger people.

BUT overall there aren't signs of impending disaster.

Yes. So far it's nothing like the first wave. The issue is that this smaller wave is happening on top of massive 2 year backlog and a huge amount of staff sickness. It's a much better situation in terms of Covid hospitalisations but still a disaster for everyone else needing hospital treatment anytime soon.

BBC reporting that more Nightingales are on the way.

The Nightingale hubs will be located at:

the Royal Preston hospital in Lancashire
St James' University Hospital in Leeds
Lister Hospital in Stevenage
St George's Hospital in Tooting
William Harvey Hospital in Ashford, Kent
North Bristol Hospital
Solihull Hospital
University Hospitals Birmingham
University Hospitals Leicester

It is clear that hospital admissions are going up.

Well at least these "nightingales" are on NHS sites - but where are the staff expected to come from? I imagine that NHS staff with covid will be asked to go into work and staff them. Otherwise maybe we can ask St Johns Ambulance staff (many of their volunteers are NHS staff so dont expect a lot) and anyone with a first aid certificate to help out. And of course we can destroy medical students training by putting them in there too.

Despite the "everyone will have to get it" crowd I shall be doing my best to avoid it. Anyone read the other thread on here about waiting hours for an ambulance after a heart attack?

@RoyalFamilyFan - you really need to look at numbers per 100,000 population. Obviously England has much high numbers in hospital than the other UK countries as it's much larger

There was good thread on 'everyone will get it' on Twitter but I can't locate it again now. Interesting to read.

[quote Firefliess]@RoyalFamilyFan - you really need to look at numbers per 100,000 population. Obviously England has much high numbers in hospital than the other UK countries as it's much larger[/quote]
Surely it's the sudden dramatic rise that is the issue on that graph, rather than the specific numbers?

@Firefliess all the way through I have looked at trends. I have seen too many comments of - numbers seem to be going down (based on 2 days figures) that end up being false. The overall trend is what matters. And the overall trend is up, even if the numbers are far lower than this time last year.

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow

Recently we've learned that the government has asked hospitals to expand bed and mortuary capacity, that the NHS is on a "war footing", that patients may be treated in Nightingale field hospitals in the car park in some hospitals, and virtually in their own homes, and many NHS trusts have redeployed admin staff to the oximetry at home service.

Nothing about this looks hopeful to me.

If the government who have the up to the minute numbers believe all this may be needed soon then I'm not going to challenge that assessment.

It's also important to remember, in addition to your caveats, that Omicron has only been a proportion of the daily reported cases until recently so we haven't been feeling it's full effect yet.

As I understand it, the Nightingale hubs are to free up acute beds in hospital. There are lots of bed-blockers as in-patients, as they are positive so can't go to their care home for example. A colleague said there are over 200 in hospital in Leeds NHS trusts ( anecdata, I'm afraid, I don't have the written evidence). These people aren't acutely ill and need less nursing care than is available on acute wards.

It seems a sensible option IF they can find care workers or agency staff to cover the hubs.) They are certainly better located than the original Nightingales, the Harrogate one was way too far from Leeds to make transfer of severely ill patients manageable.

AreadytskenI agree - just because the required staff have only to talk 10 mins from their usual ward as opposed to an hour's drive isn't actually going to make them any less required for their usual shift!

Also the Beeb article says that hospices are going to be used. How? Do they expect people to stop dying of other things?? (OK this will partly happen.) and what about infection control in a hospice?? And of course their staff will be hit by positive tests and isolation/possible illness just as much as the NHS!

But there are already massive shortages of care staff, @cathyandclare ?

I know there's a shortage of nurses and care staff. That's why I put the if in capitals. But relatively fewer staff will be needed in a hub full of patients that are medically fit than on acute medical wards.

I'm sorry, my hospitalisation number below was way out of date, they are rising quickly in London, though still around 1/4 of the ratio to cases as seen in Jan this year. But still, up up up.

It still looks like (I know early days) it's short hospital stays rather than death as the worry. New treatments and vaccine protection seems to be keeping ventilator use and deaths low.

In that case increasing hospital capacity rather than closing everything down does make some sense.

I guess at some stage it may need both though.

In my City there are 12 full-time hospice beds.

A kind of distraction/ reinfection question:

DS14 has tested positive on about day 97 following previous confirmed infection. Only new symptom was a slight cough which only lasted about a day. Pos PCR, v faint pos LFT on same day as cough. We're on Day 2.

Is there any chance both the positives could actually be from the September infection? I guess not, as he did have a negative LFT about two weeks ago (when we thought he might have a new symptom).

Also if it is new, where did he catch it? Hasn't been to school for a week, so unlikely to be omicron from my understanding. Only other place he's been in the last week is his dad's on 23/4 overnight and for a few hours onChristmas Day. Dad is negative on LFT on Tuesday, and sees v few people. I am neg on LFT and PCR (got confused about current advice, I shouldn't have PCRd but did when took him) and his sister is neg on LFT so far. She stayed at another household Sun-Mon, so returned the day before he started coughing.

Unlikely Jangly he more likely caught it from one of those people, or transiting through a space where other had been.

It does seem there are plenty of people who don't produce enough virus to test positive on LFD's who do produce enough to infect a close contact.

Yes re yr second point - I don't really understand how LFTs show peak infectious but can be neg yet you still infect someone. Can you have just a few hours infectiousness? I guess so.

I've seen the many graphs both observed and theoretical (sorry can't think of correct terminology) showing when LFDs are (likely to be) positive.

@JanglyBeads

Yes re yr second point - I don't really understand how LFTs show peak infectious but can be neg yet you still infect someone. Can you have just a few hours infectiousness? I guess so.

I've seen the many graphs both observed and theoretical (sorry can't think of correct terminology) showing when LFDs are (likely to be) positive.

I'm no expert but read that some people just don't have a lot of the virus in the nose or throat so it's not picked-up by nose or throat swabs. Happy to be corrected.

Javid admits to LFT shortages

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/lateral-flow-tests-to-be-constrained-over-next-two-weeks-warns-sajid-javid?CMP=ShareAndroidAppp_Other

But if they don't have much virus in nose or throat, and we know surface transmission isn't really a problem, how do they transmit it?
Fecal aerosol?

Wonder if China are still using that rectal
swabbing method...

But if they don't have much virus in nose or throat, and we know surface transmission isn't really a problem, how do they transmit it?

There's plenty, just not enough to trigger and LFD positive, so unlikely to be a superspreader in a pub, but a family in a room at christmas all day hugging etc.