Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

15, 849 cases in Scotland reported today.
28% positivity.

FDA not as confident about lateral flow tests and Omicron.

www.independent.co.uk/news/science/covid-omicron-lateral-flow-home-tests-b1983799.html

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's not the percentage of all hospital admissions which are due to covid (which is more stable and has fallen from around 80% to 70% in the last few weeks)

There is no published data on the above, and it's quite unlikely that the admissions happen to exactly match the London figures for patients in hospital at 8am.

Yes there is. www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Michael McNally interviewed on R4 PM:
We're at capacity for Pillar 2 tests. Results are taking longer to come back than it takes cases to double. Time to move to LFT only, at least for non-essential workers.

(Wouldn't be drawn on throat vs nose swab - best to follow the instructions.)

Well at nearly 200k cases today…that’s why.

I'm new to the thread but used to follow at the beginning. I've just checked today's numbers and I'm
😱 at the number I've known cases.

Very high number of new cases today - 183,000. Possibly a bit of Christmas backlog (specimen date 27th already much higher than 25th or 26th), though could also be the start of a "caught it over Christmas" wave. Hospital admissions also rising sharply, though ICU not rising. London is looking more positive - case rates broadly steady though hospital admissions still rising there too.

@Firefliess

Very high number of new cases today - 183,000. Possibly a bit of Christmas backlog (specimen date 27th already much higher than 25th or 26th), though could also be the start of a "caught it over Christmas" wave. Hospital admissions also rising sharply, though ICU not rising. London is looking more positive - case rates broadly steady though hospital admissions still rising there too.

Drop in deaths presumably because they don't register them over Christmas? Couldn't see an explaination on the gov site.

@festivesprinkles

I'm new to the thread but used to follow at the beginning. I've just checked today's numbers and I'm 😱 at the number I've known cases.

Me too, haven’t followed this thread for a while but noticed today’s figures which are really quite scary.

I can only imagine it will get worse when Christmas spread really starts to show symptoms and then with new year.

Keeping key services running is surely going to become a big problem soon!

If you look at teh cases by specimen date, the few days before Christmas were approx three times the level they were running at pre-Omicron.

Assuming they're all Omicron (something of an assumption!) then, if it really is 70% less likely to put you in hospital, then we're back at baseline.

But that 70% was, IIRC, at the optimistic end of the margin of error. And no sign we're peaking.

Eeek.

Horrendous numbers today.

London may well be peaking though I think a week or so more will confirm

Plus Northern Ireland added 22k today 5 days worth

Re services - London fire brigade reporting big problems - can't find the article now though!

Hopefully it'll calm down soon. I think many people are likely to be put off the big NY parties with numbers like that. Wondering what schools will be like going back with cases so high?

The numbers haven't settled down after the Christmas break yet.

Difficult to know what to make of them. I think Fridays number will be more accurate. Still, nothing to happy about in today's news.

@DolphinFC

The numbers haven't settled down after the Christmas break yet.

Difficult to know what to make of them. I think Fridays number will be more accurate. Still, nothing to happy about in today's news.

They won’t settle down after Christmas either. All those cases which can’t be tested back into schools.

Schools:

Many kids will still be isolating.

All secondaries are supposed to be testing on return although some seem to be allowing mixing before testing which seems counter productive racially with omicron. And many won't be able to test because they'll be within 90 days of a previous positive test.

Many staff will still be isolating and/or poorly.

Then all those unvaccinated bodies will mix.

I wonder if masks might be suggested in secondary classrooms?

Is the rest of the country broadly expected to follow London’s pattern?

@JanglyBeads

Schools:

Many kids will still be isolating.

All secondaries are supposed to be testing on return although some seem to be allowing mixing before testing which seems counter productive racially with omicron. And many won't be able to test because they'll be within 90 days of a previous positive test.

Many staff will still be isolating and/or poorly.

Then all those unvaccinated bodies will mix.

I wonder if masks might be suggested in secondary classrooms?

Mine are nursery/primary ages but few have had it in their group. Just had a horrible realisation that by spring we will either be recovered, incapacitated or dead! Not looking forward to the coming weeks.

I think the data released on Friday will be the most reliable daily picture until the middle of the next week by which time schools will have already opened.

What will be will be.

My Son's secondary school is going for a staggered return. Only y11 will be in from Wednesday onwards. The other years are coming in for LFTs and then back home until the following week. Already have asked for masks in all indoor places.

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Is the rest of the country broadly expected to follow London’s pattern?

Yes and no - London much less vaccinated than the rest of the country.

Oops just realised the typo in my longer post - racially should have read especially, sorry!

Yes there is. www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

No, this is inpatient data at each day, this is different to admissions. Imagine 50 patients come in on day 1 primary covid, 50 with covid, it's 50% primary covid, second day again 50/50 admissions, but 40 of the with covid leave hospital and 10 of the primary covid do, so now at the end of day 2 we would have 90/60 in the reported figure despite 50/50 being the admissions percentage, our one reported stat which is what's available on the activity report would show 60% primary covid.

How much of an impact on schools returning have on R this time? It's spreading so rapidly that I can't see it having the same impact as before.