Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Yes and no - London much less vaccinated than the rest of the country

Perhaps a little less vaccinated, the non NIMS based data doesn't show such an extreme fall, it is also more prior infection than much of the country which almost certainly is more protective (even with maybe 10% of the cases being re-infections, that's still much higher effectiveness than the vaccine efficacy)

Also, it may well be slower, remember the first three weeks of Omicron spread in London there were no omicron specific mitigations, if the scientists have produced any mitigations that matter then they should slow it by the amount they claim - have they claimed any range of slowing from the new mitigations (vaccine passports etc.) ?

London Admissions very high number stayed in on the Christmas days, and it means the growth is even more pronounced, I know some have speculated that discharge over christmas was slower last year - and I can see how care home discharge could be impacted, but if the case rates are much younger demographic etc. as claimed then that wouldn't be the same this time?

Or are there other reasons for discharges being lower than care homes?

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@JanglyBeads

Re services - London fire brigade reporting big problems - can't find the article now though!

https://hounslowherald.com/capitals-fire-engine-shortages-rise-again-p14898-249.htm

@containsnuts - yes I think people are coming round to the realisation that covid isn't going to go away and pretty much everyone is going to catch it at some point. Pre-vaccines it was calculated that the death rate from covid for any individual was about the same as your risk of dying from any cause over the course of a year (this held true for all ages over about 10 - the under 10s being more likely to die from something else). Vaccines reduce the risk of dying from covid about 10 fold, plus we also have better treatments now. So if you catch covid in the next year you're at least 10 times more likely to die from something else than from the covid. So, yes at some point you're likely to catch covid, but your chances of being dead by Easter from some other cause are much higher! And if you're young/middle aged they're really not high at all.

There is long covid too, but then there's also a hell of a lot of other health conditions you might develop over the next year. Our overall health risks really haven't increased all that much due to covid - life expectancy today is still higher than it was at the turn of the century, and I don't think we felt to be in jeopardy back then.

Thanks @MaybeHeIsMyCat

A warning in advance about tomorrow's figures. Effectively we've had a 4-day bank holiday so reported deaths today and over the past few days are artificially low with no hospital deaths reported in England since 24 December. Tomorrow's figure will include a catch-up of this missing 5 days of data and will look brutal.

@Firefliess

Plus we're about to see just how effective (or not) the vaccines are for the older and vulnerable people who have managed to avoid covid so far. I know several over 80s and CV people who have not had covid yet or know anyone who has. People being careful has prevented a lot of infection until now. That's about to change with it being so transmissible.

[quote containsnuts]@Firefliess

Plus we're about to see just how effective (or not) the vaccines are for the older and vulnerable people who have managed to avoid covid so far. I know several over 80s and CV people who have not had covid yet or know anyone who has. People being careful has prevented a lot of infection until now. That's about to change with it being so transmissible.[/quote]
I'm CEV and haven't had it. Waiting for vaccine 4 which is next month, and still shielding myself as much as I can

Good article here and the with covid/due to covid hospital admissions and what we know from the data www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/how-can-we-measure-the-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

We do know how effective vaccines are in older people - we know they are slightly less effective than they are in younger people, but still take their risk of dying right down from what it was (albeit quite a high risk initially) But if you're 88, your risk of dying in the next year from any other cause is around 15-20% too. Older people die.

For the young and ECV people the maths might work out a bit differently, as some conditions make you particularly vulnerable to covid but if well managed, don't otherwise pose much of a threat. Though the reality does remain that avoiding covid indefinitely is looking increasingly difficult. Could be worth trying to shield for another year I guess, until production of new drugs is scaled up to be widely available, if doing so isn't too difficult for you.

It's starting in the older age groups now so we'll soon find out

twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1476286410885902346?t=3TwZ1pAJSWH5wiDtxshTcQ&s=19 latest data from South Africa. Their Omicron cases peaked at about 90% of their Delta wave, and hospitalisations at around 50% of their Delta peak. This fits with the evidence of Omicron being about 40% less likely to result in hospital admission. Lots of things are different in the UK (high vaccination, boosters, lower prior infection, previous big wave alpha not Delta, etc) But if we did see a similar pattern, and our Omicron wave doesn't peak til about 2-3 times the January 2021 peak (which is roughly where it'll end up if the regions follow London's trajectory) that'll give us hospital admissions higher than we saw in January, which won't be easy. And the UK's previous wave was alpha not Delta.

A few questions some of you may have the answers top and save my research:

1. Did SA have any lockdown to try and cure Omicron?

1. If we follow their wave pattern, when will pur cases drop?

1. How likely is the above?

@AbstractDot

Here's the UK/SA cases comparison.

I don't personally think there's any reason to assume the UK's Omicron wave will mirror South Africa's.

I can't think of any reason why it would, and lots of reasons why it wouldn't.

AbstractDot - no new restrictions were imposed in SA.

It depends on the genuine susceptible proportion in the UK, and the mitigations put in place. London could already not have enough susceptible people left to infect to peak any higher.

When a peak would come elsewhere in the UK would depend on the mitigations, remember the UK have claimed to put in mitigations to slow the spread, so that (if they work, and if they don't work then we should not be doing be them) There's unlikely to be any mitigations other than lockdown though that could extend the peak beyond january.

@AbstractDot

A few questions some of you may have the answers top and save my research:

1. Did SA have any lockdown to try and cure Omicron?

1. If we follow their wave pattern, when will pur cases drop?

1. How likely is the above?

1) No, or very minimally 2) Soon - they were 2-3 weeks ahead of us, and been falling for at least a week. London is a week or two ahead of the rest of the UK and already looks to be peaking/peaked. I'd guess 1-2 more weeks for the other regions. 3) I would think our cases will follow a similar(ish) trend if we don't lockdown, or change behaviour voluntarily. If we do that would flatten and prolong the peak. Looks like the Scots and Welsh are keener on lockdowns than UK government, but likely to be not insignificant voluntary isolation elsewhere especially once the Christmas urge to see family has passed and if people see those around them getting ill.

The chart posted below shows the trends, but the rate of testing in SA is a lot lower than the UK (most of the population have to pay for tests, and most are not wealthy)

Do you think it would be an idea to factor in schools will be returning next week @Firefliess? Our biggest group of unvaccinated will soon be back mixing in crowded, indoor areas. I don't really understand how you are predicting that London has reached its peak? Maybe a lull due to various behaviour changes but surely cases will escalate as soon as we're all back out there.

@mrshoho

Do you think it would be an idea to factor in schools will be returning next week *@Firefliess*? Our biggest group of unvaccinated will soon be back mixing in crowded, indoor areas. I don't really understand how you are predicting that London has reached its peak? Maybe a lull due to various behaviour changes but surely cases will escalate as soon as we're all back out there.

I'm not predicting it. I'm looking at the dashboard where you can clearly see the numbers rising rapidly in early December, then plateauing.

Yes schools going back might make a bit of a difference, though a lot of kids and their parents have had covid and/or a vaccine quite recently (second doses opened up to 12-15 year olds about a week ago).

Thank you for answering my questions! Saved me some time trying to source the info. I'm hoping to see London start to drop and then we can map out what to expect for the rest of the UK and when we will be able to conclude of Omicron has been beneficial for overall population immunity gains over a more deathly strain that has to be minised.

Are 12-15s eligible for a second dose? What's the time gap between doses? Mine had the vaccine in December so won't be up for their second dose yet. Both have had covid. One 28 days before and one a week after. Ds has miraculously remained uninflected despite a positive case in the house and loads at his school having it.

using the latest gender files from today's update to get the age breakdown for the past four days (spec dates as reported so far) and based on the seven day rate per 100,000 the seepage into those older age groups.

This is the tabulated data for England

graph for Aged 80 and over bands

60-79s

40-59s