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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 14:53

Not that up to date no, 21st is last available, direction had been down for awhile (as in lower proportion primary covid) and there's quite a bit of regional difference

England 70.97%

East of England 72.28%
London 74.72%
Midlands 60.95%
North East 66.42%
North West 71.86%
South East 76.08%
South West 77.80%

Will probably format badly - one of the excel sheets on www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Bizawit · 28/12/2021 15:21

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]Not that up to date no, 21st is last available, direction had been down for awhile (as in lower proportion primary covid) and there's quite a bit of regional difference

England 70.97%

East of England 72.28%
London 74.72%
Midlands 60.95%
North East 66.42%
North West 71.86%
South East 76.08%
South West 77.80%

Will probably format badly - one of the excel sheets on www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/[/quote]
Interesting- thank you! Interesting that London is comparatively high..

JanglyBeads · 28/12/2021 16:06

Thanks @EducatingArti and @CatAlice

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 16:56

Interesting that London is comparatively high

London was much higher though before omicron, I think there may be something impacting the stats such as different definitions of primary covid between trusts, or ICU concentration in areas - longer term covid wards all in particular areas even if cases are from other areas or something inflating different regions.

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 17:41

Large increase in London hospitalisation today - 384 increase in hospital - admissions for the previous days though not up, we don't have the admission number for that increase day, so we don't know if this signals a larger increase in admissions, in hospital transmission, or a difference in discharge behaviour on the 27th/28th.

A reduction in ventillation (but still within the range) so not alarming, but certainly questioning with London adding 599 in patients over the last couple of days.

Otherwise data probably too questioning to say, but London cases certainly look to be on the down of the second peak - with other areas still going up I don't think concluding this is simply testing change is fair as why would London change their behaviour more than other areas?

The boxing day admissions were certainly increasing children (up to about 7% against 1% in total across the pandemic) but that rate has been more similar since the summer, so not as inflated, just very inflated compared to previous waves.

lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 17:44

Hospital data for all regions.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 18:06

Under 19 year old weekly hospital numbers. 512 children have been hospitalized due to covid in the last 7 days in England. A 52.4% increase on the previous 7 days.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Firefliess · 28/12/2021 18:11

@lonelyplanet

Under 19 year old weekly hospital numbers. 512 children have been hospitalized due to covid in the last 7 days in England. A 52.4% increase on the previous 7 days.
Is that actually children hospitalised due to covid though? Or testing positive on admission (including admission for other things)
containsnuts · 28/12/2021 18:16

"Otherwise data probably too questioning to say, but London cases certainly look to be on the down of the second peak - with other areas still going up I don't think concluding this is simply testing change is fair as why would London change their behaviour more than other areas?"

Could it be that London has a larger percentage of people travelling out of the city at this time of year, for example, temp workers and students going home for Christmas?

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 18:16

We have no knowledge - however given the prevalence change in the general population between those 15 [*] day periods going up over 150%, then 52% increase is actually below the expected value isn't it? Although the case increases in the younger age groups are lower than the headline figure I think.

[*] A covid admission is any positive test between 14 days before and 1 day after admission.

lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 18:18

Is that actually children hospitalised due to covid though? Or testing positive on admission (including admission for other things)
As previously mentioned we don't know this. There is bound to be an increase if community rates are higher and we know they are. This however seems like a big jump.

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 18:19

containsnuts but they'd still be recorded as a positive in their home address in London? And such travelling home is likely to be more likely to LFD? So I think it's unlikely. I think the peaks being driven by socialising is more likely, and there was less mass socialising on the Christmas weekend compared to the previous ones which had driven the peaks.

JanglyBeads · 28/12/2021 18:20

Staffing probs in SE path labs

twitter.com/shaunlintern/status/1475870805410131970?s=21

Piggywaspushed · 28/12/2021 18:45

I was a Covid admission, although officially I had acute gastroenteritis. Because I had a Covid positive test, I had to go to a Covid ward. I am not in any doubt , though that Covid caused, or at the very least made worse, the gastroenteritis. So, sometimes, the two things are not as discreet as the oft used broken ankle/Covid example.

lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 18:47

Although the case increases in the younger age groups are lower than the headline figure I think.

Apologies, I cut off the legend on the graph on child admissions. Light blue - 0 to 5. Darker blue 6 to 17. So doesn't look to be much lower if at all

Piggywaspushed · 28/12/2021 18:59

Test positivity somewhat 'interesting':

PCR test positivity rate in England has gone up from 13% to 20% in a week to 22 Dec. That is a v steep increase.
Latest in London is 25%.

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 19:12

Apologies, I cut off the legend on the graph on child admissions. Light blue - 0 to 5. Darker blue 6 to 17. So doesn't look to be much lower if at all

I wasn't meaning in response to your graph, I was meaning the 150% increase in cases up the last week was the average for all age groups, and the kids hadn't increased as much - ie a 53% increase in child admissions could be exactly the same percentage as the increase in cases rather than seemingly a lower percentage of kid cases now being admitted.

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 19:15

The change in PCR testing rules as contacts would lead to an increase in positivity, as well of course as the fact 25% of some age groups in some London boroughs were actually positive in that week, but with not having a PCR recommended as a contact any more, the positivity will go up (since generally those PCRs were taken too early to catch cases and vaccinated individuals weren't catching delta anyway)

Monkeytennis97 · 28/12/2021 19:26

Thanks for this thread all. Watching with interest.

lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 20:07

I was meaning the 150% increase in cases up the last week was the average for all age groups, and the kids hadn't increased as much

These age graphs are now available for each area. Older age groups looking worrying, everywhere but especially London.
sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=CasesByAge

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 20:14

lonely Why the choice of the x-axis for those graphs though?

England's case rate in over 70's being not even double the rate in October when the severity is reportedly more than half as severe is good news, not bad surely? Obviously they're still going up, but I don't find it particularly alarming.

But London clearly looks worst because most of its post "freedom" delta wave was before the X axis begins, rather than after as it is in other areas.

JanglyBeads · 28/12/2021 20:16

Wales positivity is about 35%!

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 20:18

Wales positivity is about 35%

Anyone know if the positivity rate of PCRs is de-duped for re-infections? I assumed it wasn't (so a re-infection would still count in the positivity stats) I now wonder with that info if it isn't, as we know Welsh data does have re-infections in it.

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 20:25

Also - are you sure that stat is pillar 1 and pillar 2, and not just pillar 2? Wales always seems to do a much higher proportion of pillar 1 tests (lower positivity as the selection criteria are different) and pillar 2 alone would therefore show a higher positivity than combined.

If it is pillar 1 and pillar 2, then given that would imply pillar 1 positivity is extremely high, how with the extra restrictions in wales as it got so much out of hand?

RoyalFamilyFan · 28/12/2021 20:35

@Piggywaspushed

I was a Covid admission, although officially I had acute gastroenteritis. Because I had a Covid positive test, I had to go to a Covid ward. I am not in any doubt , though that Covid caused, or at the very least made worse, the gastroenteritis. So, sometimes, the two things are not as discreet as the oft used broken ankle/Covid example.
This is my experience with people I know who were hospitalised. One with asthma for example which only led to hospitalisation because of covid.
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