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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
Piggywaspushed · 28/12/2021 21:19

I feel the need to correct myself about discreet. Bloody auto correct. I meant discrete. Have literally just been moaning about this misuse in a book!

It just tried to do it to me again but I noticed just in time!

lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 21:29

Why the choice of the x-axis for those graphs though?

The dates on the x axis start when these graphs started to be produced, nothing to deliberately manipulate data.

England's case rate in over 70's being not even double the rate in October when the severity is reportedly more than half as severe is good news, not bad surely?Obviously they're still going up, but I don't find it particularly alarming.

These graphs are log scale. A straight line shows exponential growth. Although starting from a low base it is something to watch.

boys3 · 28/12/2021 21:45

Regional hospitalisation rates in England, plus 2021 v 2020 comparison (based on seven day average figure)

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 28/12/2021 21:47

and admissions

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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sirfredfredgeorge · 28/12/2021 21:47

The dates on the x axis start when these graphs started to be produced, nothing to deliberately manipulate data

But it is pretty manipulative whatever you think to show the start as mid-October, the data going back in the past is freely available and considerably different growth rates, nothing changed "mid-October" to make that a good start date, pretty much all it does is make London look worse due to the timing of waves.

boys3 · 28/12/2021 22:04

Regional case rates in England just for the past few weeks. There is undoubtedly a slightly longer lag with cases being reported through, nothing particularly drastic but I'd be wary of reading too much yet into drops starting in the last three days.

This in London - overall; inner boroughs where the peak looks to have been around 20th December, and outer boroughs where the jury is perhaps still out.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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treeflowercat · 28/12/2021 22:05

@Piggywaspushed

Test positivity somewhat 'interesting':

PCR test positivity rate in England has gone up from 13% to 20% in a week to 22 Dec. That is a v steep increase.
Latest in London is 25%.

One explanation could simply be the change in testing advice during December:

My DS got Covid in early December and all contacts were advised to get a PCR asap. I had one, as did my DP... Both negative.

My DP did then get Covid a week later (PCR was too early) almost certainly from my DS. I was then advised to do LFTs for 7 days rather than get a PCR.

The revised policy will have avoided large numbers of negative PCRs.

boys3 · 28/12/2021 22:10

South East, North West, East of England and East Midlands

For the North West and East Midlands seven day peaks on 26th December, so only two days of reporting and more cases to be added, so that Dec 26th rate will increase further over the next few days.

East and South East less clear cut, the dip after the 24th remains to be added to of course.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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JanglyBeads · 28/12/2021 22:10

But the advice is still to get PCR as well as daily LFTs? Unless I read it wrongly when I looked earlier.

boys3 · 28/12/2021 22:12

West Midlands, Yorks and Humber, South West and North East all of whom have a peak rate on 26th so still to be further added too. All their peaks likely still to be reached.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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JanglyBeads · 28/12/2021 22:22

Sorry have just checked, you only PCR as a close contact if outside 90 days of a previous positive

lonelyplanet · 28/12/2021 22:23

@sirfredfredgeorge

The dates on the x axis start when these graphs started to be produced, nothing to deliberately manipulate data

But it is pretty manipulative whatever you think to show the start as mid-October, the data going back in the past is freely available and considerably different growth rates, nothing changed "mid-October" to make that a good start date, pretty much all it does is make London look worse due to the timing of waves.

Can't see how things turned much in mid-October. Happy for you to show something different.
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
JanglyBeads · 29/12/2021 09:22

A thought on the high positivity rates: part of that will be the vast numbers of LFTs, negatives mainly unregistered, won't it?

Has always been an issue for positivity since they came into widespread use but look at the numbers of people who must be using them over the holiday period....

lonelyplanet · 29/12/2021 10:24

I agree Jangly, most people will be pretty sure they have covid before booking a pcr now. Lfts only registered when positive. The positivity will be high as maybe more carried out over the holidays. This has been happening for a while though.

lonelyplanet · 29/12/2021 10:35

A balanced thread on hospital predictions from Oliver Johnson. He has been accurate on many occasions and is suggesting about 1% hospitalised with omicron. Second thread explains his modelling on this.

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1476102015117844480

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1475912299873554436

Lalalablahblahblah · 29/12/2021 11:04

This reply has been withdrawn

Message from MNHQ: This post has been withdrawn

sirfredfredgeorge · 29/12/2021 11:08

suggesting about 1% hospitalised with omicron

With what lag? London has had at least 500,000 cases, probably at least 750,000, and realistically more, but hasn't had 4000 admissions let alone 4000 in patients? (depending on what hospitalised means?)

sirfredfredgeorge · 29/12/2021 11:09

I did get a PCR to confirm which would have obviously been included in figures. Anecdotally everyone I know has done the same

Given the PCR vs LFD and confirmed PCR, and the number of LFD's being consumed, I would say this fits the evidence yes.

sirfredfredgeorge · 29/12/2021 11:10

(I can't see the BristOliver thread as they limit who can read btw. apologies for asking questions about something they may already explain)

Piggywaspushed · 29/12/2021 11:22

He got an awful lot of trolling and nastiness. Which is a same as now no one can see his stuff!!

Firefliess · 29/12/2021 11:23

@sirfredfredgeorge

suggesting about 1% hospitalised with omicron

With what lag? London has had at least 500,000 cases, probably at least 750,000, and realistically more, but hasn't had 4000 admissions let alone 4000 in patients? (depending on what hospitalised means?)

He's modelling hospitalisation based on reported cases, not infections. I think he's using a 7 day lag His numbers look plausible to me - I follow him on Twitter and he's usually good.
treeflowercat · 29/12/2021 11:29

@JanglyBeads

Sorry have just checked, you only PCR as a close contact if outside 90 days of a previous positive
Thanks, that makes sense...

Another reason positivity could be expected to be higher is that Covid accounts for a higher proportion of respiratory infections, so if you get a sore throat, cough etc., it's more likely to be Covid than it was a few weeks ago.

sirfredfredgeorge · 29/12/2021 11:33

Ah, just on reported, I don't think detection is consistent enough, especially in the earliest part of ramp ups as people are less observant so test less on minor symptoms than when there are high cases which encourages more testing - and the same on the downslope. Which ends up understating during the rising time, it also makes comparisons between countries harder.

Even comparing England and Wales with the different re-infection recording won't be possible even if we think other test behaviour is similar.

And it's 1% admissions then? That still seems within the bounds of what's happened, but then you also need to account for what has so far been lower average stay.

boys3 · 29/12/2021 11:34

Following on from regional rates' graphs the position across the various English county areas, at the overall county level, there will clearly be variances between the constituent councils with each of these wider geographies.

Working highest to lowest rates this one starts with Hertforshire, Surrey, Essex and Kent all of which of course border London.

The y-axis on this graph maxes at 1800 per 100,000. Shaded dip very likely to reflect the reporting lag, more so perhaps in Kent and Essex.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 29/12/2021 11:38

Nottinghamshire, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Lancashire , y-axis only needs to go to 1300 per 100,000. Lancashire probably the stand out. Depending how the reporting lag plays out Bucks and Oxford may be starting to flatten out.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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