Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@JanglyBeads

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59804686

Rishi says nothing til New Year at least

When were we last in any proper restrictions?

Feels like it’s been pretty much business as usual (apart from testing, boosting and masking!) for aaaages now.

July 17th iirc was 'freedom day'.

Thread on all the delays etc with estimates of what the true figures might be up to today:

twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1475501795074060293?s=21

A Cambridge medic's opinion relevant to 'with not for' admissions:

twitter.com/andymoz78/status/1475569739875459074?s=21

We now know the many myriad effects and complications of Covid. It’s no surprise that it might exacerbate conditions requiring surgery, respiratory disease, heart disease, immune conditions, neurological conditions and so on. You wouldn’t want to acquire it anywhere, let alone when already ill with something.

Indeed born.

Just seen this to, re how NHS defines, it's interesting:

twitter.com/victimofmaths/status/1471843587759517710?s=21

So London on Christmas day had 14 child covid admissions.

But over 5% of kids in London had covid in last 7 days (likely more as child cases probably under-report more than other case detection), and 14 days or more is still positive for admission case, but anyway certainly more than 7, so let's say 7.5% positivity? So that's 190 odd under 18's admitted in London if it's purely by chance of any admission, that seems low for the city - although I assume christmas is lower admission day for childhood injuries anyway?

GOSH actually say "every day 619 patients" - so that means 190 is tiny - but I don't know how genuine the 619 is every day, or how transfers between NHS regions is considered in admissions etc. Anyone know how many kids admitted to hospital on Christmas day - it's normally said to be a busy day?

"GOSH actually say "every day 619 patients" - so that means 190 is tiny"

Fred what does this mean?

@sirfred. Not sure where you got your figures from but Great Ormond Street's website says they have about 43,000 admissions a year - which is 117 a day. If 7.5% if them had covid, that would be about 9 children.

But I'm not sure you can work things out that way - people who have a planned hospital admission (ie most of Great Ormond Street's patients) are told to isolate before admission and tested before they go in. If they're positive they don't go on to hospital. So you can't assume the rate on admission will reflect the general population. Children in hospital with covid are most likely there either because of covid complications or because they've been admitted in an emergency and happen to be positive. Both of these would likely happen in similar numbers on Christmas Day to any other day.

Christmas is incredibly quiet in paediatric. However I think parents of 0-3 year olds are not used to seeing their children unwell with the usual respiratory illness are more ready to seek medical attention than they would have been in 2019. Once in any health care setting you will be tested. Many 100,000's of children are "admitted" to hospital with respiratory illnesses every winter except 2020-2021. The vast, vast majority do not need intensive care and recover fully. It is an endemic virus it is behaving like every other respiratory virus.

This is interesting...

twitter.com/JennyRohn/status/1475410068019585027

I think it would be interesting to understand more about what symptoms lead people to be admitted to hospital with covid. The focus seems to be on how many people need oxygen or ventillation which seems quit narrow. For example, way before covid, my DD was admitted to hospital with an upper respiratory infection. The sore throat put her off eating and drinking so she became dehydrated and needed a drip. Although unwell with a respiratory infection there was never any concern for breathing or need for oxygen. Likewise my cousin was admitted a few months ago with a chest infection. The coughing made him puke and he became dehydrated so was treated for that. I hope this makes sense.

My point is that I don’t think we get a full picture of the impact of covid on the health service just by counting how many people need oxygen. I'd like to know the impact on GPs, out of hours appointments, how many blood tests, chest x-rays, prescriptions etc etc and compare with the impact of flu, for example.

Virtual covid wards -where you're monitored but stay at home - does anyone know where/ if patients appear in the statistics?

These are different from oximetry at home.

They aren't always different from oximetry at home. I got offered the loan of an oximeter. The paperwork that came with it told me I was part of a virtual Covid ward!

@EducatingArti

They aren't always different from oximetry at home. I got offered the loan of an oximeter. The paperwork that came with it told me I was part of a virtual Covid ward!

Sounds to me as if they wouldn't be counted as hospital admissions - just as home care, or possibly under the oversight of a hospital (rather than a GP) but not as inpatients.

@Fireflies My 619 was a very very quick search on trying to find hospital numbers in London - even if it was 619 in GOSH itself that wouldn't apply on Christmas day for the reasons you gave, but I was trying to find some idea of the volumes to see how much WITH covid purely coincidental cases would trigger at the current London volumes. 14 doesn't seem a lot with pushing 10% of people having covid.

619 is apparently the number the GOSH charity supports across the country (so presumably most serious in patients at any one time in the UK?)

The numbers generally are just too low to draw any conclusions I think, the numbers are not much different to other days when London had high rates among younger kids.

A quick look around Europe where we obviously have some very different scenarios with restrictions. All of the countries without lockdown type restrictions growing very fast, with the countries that weren't as advanced as UK/Denmark all joining in with the very fast growth, but all countries with restrictions that close pubs etc. all seeing falls from their delta peaks - Netherlands being the slight question as they said they locked down 'cos of omicron, but still seeing considerable falls.

Vaccine passports / restrictions on unvaccinated etc. appear to have no correlation with growth rates, only "lockdown", where lockdown is very pronounced.

Russia an outlier of course, no restrictions (?) but fast falling - however even with data quality questions their level of delta was immense straight into this so loads of very recent infection.

None of the omicron rising countries yet showing significant health care rises, but obviously only SA, UK and Denmark far enough on to see any.

@JanglyBeads

Virtual covid wards -where you're monitored but stay at home - does anyone know where/ if patients appear in the statistics?

These are different from oximetry at home.

I was on a virtual covid ward in August. I was on Oximetry at home first, but then admitted to hospital. Then on the Virtual Covid Ward for a couple of weeks after discharge.

At that time in my area these were only used for former in patients but I believe there is a plan to extend them to avoid admission in some cases.

Can't help you on the stats though.

Vaccine passports / restrictions on unvaccinated etc. appear to have no correlation with growth rates, only "lockdown", where lockdown is very pronounced.

That's been my suspicion for a while.

With Omnicron, the only thing that 'works' is a full lockdown with 'stay at home' orders and pretty much everything shut. Yesterday I mentioned Ireland, which has been under pretty tight restrictions almost without pause for getting on two years. Rates are climbing very fast there, even though restrictions were recently ramped up.

I think this belief that we can 'control' the virus through 'sensible mitigations' like masks, 'distancing', and closing hospitality at some arbitrary early time, is wishful thinking, at least with Omnicron.

Good and balanced thread on hospitalisations data.

twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1475540046677790723?s=21

China will be interesting I think the Xian region really is in a lockdown (if you are seen driving 10 day prison sentence, allowed out once every 3 days and mass testing) and it is still reporting around 170 cases a day and it is reported as being Delta as well
Their zero covid policy is going to be difficult to keep up

[quote Bizawit]Good and balanced thread on hospitalisations data.

twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1475540046677790723?s=21[/quote]
I think for me the big takeaways here are:

• admissions data can be quite misleading at the moment, as most admissions are “incidental”.
• given the current level of community prevalence, a more informative statistic would be total hospital occupancy, which is currently static (not growing).
• capacity pressure in NHS is mainly coming from staff absences due to testing and isolation policy.

admissions data can be quite misleading at the moment, as most admissions are “incidental”

But so far number in hospital figures have only dropped to 71% primary covid from at most 80%, so the in hospital numbers are less misleading - unless the categorisation in some of the trusts is slightly dubious.

@Quartz2208

China will be interesting I think the Xian region really is in a lockdown (if you are seen driving 10 day prison sentence, allowed out once every 3 days and mass testing) and it is still reporting around 170 cases a day and it is reported as being Delta as well Their zero covid policy is going to be difficult to keep up

Do you have a link that? I'm interested. Have heard of lots of cases via family friend in China but not seen much in the press

Interesting to read that Ontario have given up contact tracing outside of critical care situations and are likely to remove the ability for anyone to test on demand - the 14million population can manage 60-70,000 tests per day in all and there's a 10 day wait in Toronto. And there's no mechanism to register LFD positives (LFD's are only commercially available anyway so unlikely to be used similarly)

London - half the population - did 2 1/2 times the number of tests and people were (rightly) moaning when it was a couple of days wait or reliance on slow postal service.

I imagine this is going to be similar in lots of other countries and regions where we just get no idea of accurate figures to compare as capacity forces a change of rules on collection.

@sirfredfredgeorge

admissions data can be quite misleading at the moment, as most admissions are “incidental”

But so far number in hospital figures have only dropped to 71% primary covid from at most 80%, so the in hospital numbers are less misleading - unless the categorisation in some of the trusts is slightly dubious.

I think I read somewhere that 30% of current in-hospital numbers are hospital acquired infections, and that more than 50% of admissions are incidental, so I’m wondering about this 71% figure. Is it up to date, and I wonder how it breaks down regionally?