Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Seems consistent with removal of more of the incidental admissions being removed as they are less likely to come in at christmas. The jburnmurdoch data does appear to me to be in-patient data so only the "patients at 8am release", not all admissions so there's not evidence that it's 75% just that it's 75% of patients in hospital the next morning.

But yep, positive, shows that now 2 spreads from the peak pub goer infection it's still not really in to a vulnerable population, increasing the chance that it never will. (2 based on a weekend of 10th peak pub infection, and then time for 2 infection cycles before the 18th which would be median time from infection to a christmas day admission)

Or did the vulnerable people stay inside until christmas day when they met up with al their extended families?

@AnyFucker

I had my booster in September

Me too. I keep getting NHS texts encouraging me to get boosted, tempted to turn up at a walk in and see if they’ll give me another dose. (I’m one of those retired teachers they’re trying to tempt back into the classroom, and I wouldn’t even consider it without a further booster.)

@sirfredfredgeorge

Gosh! Lets hope those putting off going to hospital over Christmas aren't more unwell because of it by new year.

containsnuts remember lots of people over-use emergency care by being worried or because it's drunken accidents falling down tube station steps etc. that are simply less likely to happen at christmas - somewhere between 30% and 70% of the covid admissions in the week before christmas in London were not still in hospital by 8am the next morning (we don't know how many exactly, as it depends how many of the people in for more days had been released) And of course all the planned admissions.

So don't be too worried, it won't be people putting off care - people putting off routine checks and checks for other things could easily be a bigger effect than covid delays.

I keep getting NHS texts encouraging me to get boosted

The NHS really don't like me - two mobile phone numbers, neither of them have had any of these booster texts that supposedly went to everyone.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I keep getting NHS texts encouraging me to get boosted

The NHS really don't like me - two mobile phone numbers, neither of them have had any of these booster texts that supposedly went to everyone.

I didn’t get it either! I know all the info and will get boosted as soon as I’m actually eligible to do so, but how many didn’t get the text who aren’t up to speed?!

Got my 1st and only Get Boosted ! text this morning

I get texts from my GP and also from the NHS no reply thingy.

I did get my second vaccination just a month after the first, I accepted it then because I was in the classroom and thought the more vaccine the better (yes I know not necessarily sensible, but being in that situation does erode logic a bit). I’d also had a problem with my heart - previously well controlled AF went crazy in November last year, cardiologist wouldn’t rule out a brush with Covid as a cause. I had to have it reset with a cardioversion in January.
Anyway, I then had my booster early and was pleased with that, but my children asked me not to do any supply until schools were safer, and that hasn’t happened.

No booster texts for me!

A timely reminder from Kit Yates on Twitter:

Just remember to be cautious when interpreting today’s data.
We haven’t had an update for a few days so the data will likely not be directly comparable with previous days and need careful interpretation

Premier League Footballers as the new superspreaders!

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59774778

Scotland's positive cases...Christmas Day 8,252. Boxing Day 11,030 Monday 27th 10,562.
Got a booster text today.
Getting pissed off as there's no real clarity in Scotland regarding 12-15 year olds second Jag. Think I'm gonna Ng to just take the teen to the vaccine centre tomorrow and point out she's 13 weeks post first vaccine.

As Piggy said, who knows what with today.

But staying further in the past where info likely better - Looks like 21st was a second peak for London. To me that still implies it's all driven by the weekend socialising at the minute, but it could also be less testing in the last couple of days, however LFD positives still high, but who knows possibly how much higher they would have been.

I think rest of the country not enough to say with the unsureness of the data nearer the time where we should be seeing fastest growing.

Quite a bit of hospitalisation growth in the days since christmas in England - too soon for christmas spreading, and could be different discharge / type of admission, or could be faster growth? No growth in ventilation beds yet (as in it's still lower than before omicron arrived despite a month of omicron growth)

I'd guess less PCR testing but more LFD testing in last few days? But haven't looked at the stats

Ah, relevant tweet from Pouriaa of the Dashboard:

"Today's release was a nightmare. Only managed it thanks to @statsgeekclare.

Had to write 4 logs and enter numbers manually — well, the ones we had received via normal routes or a through a notification.

👉 Be careful with today's data. Most metrics only include England figures."

Here's the whole thread, interesting

twitter.com/pouriaaa/status/1475501698521120771?s=21

@Perihelion Are those published data? Where can I find it please?

The dashboard is almost never good enough to look at as the UK though, anyone who's done that at any time shouldn't really be bothering - Nation only as it's completely inconsistent recording methods let alone timing!

Also looking at the country as a whole is even more pointless if the omicron infectiousness/wave theory implied by Gauteng etc. is correct as it will just be different areas going through the waves and the overall summing in the country will not be representative.

@mibbelucieachwell Nicola sturgeon has them here:

twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1475495469031829511?s=21

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59804686

Rishi says nothing til New Year at least

Thanks.

London numbers (where Omicron most advanced) not looking too bad - admissions up and down a bit with Christmas, numbers in hospital growing but still way lower than this time last year, ICU numbers up just very slightly. Case rates hard to interpret due to likely changes in testing over Christmas (less PCR testing at Christmas, but possibly more LFTs as people test before visiting relatives). Too soon to see if Christmas socialising causes a big change in the age profile of people infected though, but at least it doesn't look to me that we went into Christmas at the peak of a wave as big as it looked it might be a couple of weeks ago.

twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1475509611310551042?s=21

John Actuary says London admissions 7 day rate up 68%?

[quote JanglyBeads]@mibbelucieachwell Nicola sturgeon has them here:

twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1475495469031829511?s=21[/quote]
Sturgeon claims she saved the day

Worth remembering tho that numbers would be higher still but for compliance with guidance issued in run up to Xmas

John Actuary says London admissions 7 day rate up 68%?

Yes, that's about right (200's to 350's) Remember case rates up over 150% and "patients in hospital" up only 45%, at the same time as the rate of "primary covid" has dropped from 80% to 75%.

Worth remembering tho that numbers would be higher still but for compliance with guidance issued in run up to Xmas

The good news about this, is that everyone who claims that people are ignoring the rules etc. Must be wrong, as the Scottish Government at least must have considerably evidence that they are to make such a statement.

So can we please stop talking about people ignoring the rules