Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@herecomesthsun

The other thing is the treatments coming online now, which have the potential to reduce death greatly.

Would love to read more data/commentary on this, as a Pfizer pill looks very promising as far as I can tell? Could this be the final blow that puts us back on track to 'normal'? (Although I understand that manufacturing of the treatment is slow)

London 20th above London 15th now, and 21st should be slightly higher.

London hospitalisations up to 386 on the 22nd but difference between 23rd and 22nd in hospital only increased 61.

Larger increase 23rd to 24th suggesting admissions may have been higher too, but still a good indicator that a lot of the admissions are extremely mild (either no stay or people only staying a couple of nights)

Hospitalisations jumping up a bit now. Delta infections from 2 weeks ago?

Hospitalisations jumping up a bit now. Delta infections from 2 weeks ago?

Last year, the increase in London cases started on the 7/8th and the hospitalisations started on the 15/17th. I'm not sure the 2 weeks to hospitalisation is really fully evidenced - 2 weeks from infection seems high, let alone 2 weeks from case.

Supposedly Omicron is shorter - but assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf has symptoms to death less than that, Median of 7 days in 2nd wave 13 in first. And 2 and 3 in hospital.

So that would be a median of 5 days from symptom onset (which would be PCR detected cases?) if omicron is similar to alpha and 10 days if it's similar to original. Given the expectation that it's more similar to alpha (I expect some of the delay there was due to NHS stress delaying admission) I think we're well into omicron case rises, not delta ones.

Would love to read more data/commentary on this, as a Pfizer pill looks very promising as far as I can tell? Could this be the final blow that puts us back on track to 'normal'?

Sage minutes said "The mutations in Omicron that result in a degree of immune escape also mean that the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies is likely to be markedly reduced, at least for some of the agents (medium confidence)."

Susan Hopkins also said in an interview that they'd been using successfully, but unlikely as effective against omicron - for much the same reason as the vaccine fails.

Or is it a different anti-viral?

I think Omicron seems to be quicker from infection to testing positive. I'm not aware of any evidence of it also taking longer from cases to hospitalisation.

@Firefliess

I think Omicron seems to be quicker from infection to testing positive. I'm not aware of any evidence of it also taking longer from cases to hospitalisation.

It seems people are contagious for less time also, which is why they reduced isolation time. Makes sense but one thing I don't get is why they did this while there is still so much Delta about?

@sirfredfredgeorge pfizer and merck antivirals aren't monoclonal antibodies

If London peaks soon will Christmas reporting make it harder to spot?

The newspapers online are changing the narrative over possible new year restrictions now. Only the ones I can read without a pay wall , so the DM and Guardian.
The stats are creeping up :(
Can't do links.

The DM is also reporting just underneath that article that the hospital stats are massively skewed by a large proportion of people who test positive when being admitted for something else so I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Yes, so goes to show how many people are asymptotic and spreading covid about without knowing it too.

Not necessarily. They might know they have covid but not be unwell enough to be admitted with it, but be admitted for something else.

Not necessarily. They might know they have covid but not be unwell enough to be admitted with it, but be admitted for something else

Wasn't pillar 1 (including all hospital admissions) running at 5% positivity for people without respiratory infection symptoms in one of the reports this week? (way lower than the symptomatic of course, but still high!) One of the ONS reports this week, but I might be remembering wrong. things to do so not time to check!

I had my booster in September

John Burn-Murdoch has a discussion of ‘for covid’ and ‘with covid’ admissions. With covid is much higher than in previous waves - not surprising when community levels are so high, But for covid is still 75% of covid admissions and going up fast.

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch (Sorry, you’ll have to scroll down. It’s not letting me link to the post.)

Where does he get the stats for with / for admissions? I understood the only published data was the primary admission reason UKHSA publish, but that's not admissions data it's patients in hospital data - and whilst the number of admissions who become in patients is also not published, the change in in patients bounds it somewhat, and anyway without knowing length of stay it doesn't tell you anything about admissions anyway.

The 75% makes me believe he's using the in patient data, and not some other admissions data.

He (and Colin Angus whom he references) say it’s from NHS England, specifically for London?

Me too @AnyFucker

I meant “That’s as much of an answer as I can see”.

Merry Christmas one and all! 🎄

There are 1 million people approx currently who would test positive for covid in the UK aren't there?

1.5%

So of a random sample 1.5% would test positive.

If more than 1.5% hospital admissions test positive we might ask why that is?

There is some age skewing going on.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals#:~:text=Hospital%20admission%20rates%20increased%20in,aged%2085%20years%20and%20over.

it should be possible to work out if there are a disproprtionate number of people with covid being admitted.

Anyone feel like having a go ?

Happy Xmas guys

herecomesthesun Isn't that data still too old to see the omicron change?

I think disproportionate is going to be difficult, 18-30's go to hospital for accidents sporting and alcohol related ones - such groups are probably also more likely to be infected from the pub mixing?

Over 80's again, the more vulnerable are also more vulnerable to infection, even if incidental to their outcome.

Time in hospital is what's really missing to see if the omicron cases are different to previous waves, presumably that data should exist though.

The time in hospital data isn't too tricky because you can derive it from comparing the change in admissions numbers with the change in the numbers in hospital at any time. If length of time in hospital stays static then increase in admissions translates directly into numbers in. If it lengthens or shortens then the numbers will vary accordingly. I don't have a link to hand but there is analysis out there and so far it's looking promising I think.

No UK wide data the last couple of days but NHS data for London looking better than expected twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1475395444817764353?t=Uzr4NL-sc0KLoc0PzClUrw&s=19