Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Yep, so that means any lockdown would need to be until omicron specific vaccines exist, boosting out of it would not work, since you couldn't jab people quick enough to overcome that waning in any practical way.

Ties in with data from Israel. Do we need to keep boosting the most vulnerable , or eve shielding some again whilst allowing the rest of us to catch it and hopefully the vaccine / boosters keep us out of hospital?

I recall people saying we should do a ‘circuit breaker’ with one benefit being more boosters

This doesn’t make as much sense as the oldest had theirs first and are at highest risk, and could have waning

The other thing is the treatments coming online now, which have the potential to reduce death greatly.

The first groups to have boosters would have been the very vulnerable, and health and social care workers.

This is... not good.

I say that as someone who had hers in October, so this is clearly a worry.

You could do 4th doses 3 months after 3rd doses, for the oldest at least. Though you'd need to find resource to deliver that which isn't GPs at the expense of everything else they're supposed to be doing.

A circuit breaker could be a mixed blessing though - would likely drive cases a few weeks into the future rather than averting them, which could mean them coming at a time when boosters were waned

You could do 4th doses 3 months after 3rd doses, for the oldest at least. Though you'd need to find resource to deliver that which isn't GPs at the expense of everything else they're supposed to be doing.

I would possibly argue for stopping the booster rollout for everyone from Jan and give an additional booster to those vulnerable.

Double vaccinated youngsters will still have very good protection against hospitilastion.

I had my booster at the end of September 🥶 but hoping protection against severe disease is maintained.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

You could do 4th doses 3 months after 3rd doses, for the oldest at least. Though you'd need to find resource to deliver that which isn't GPs at the expense of everything else they're supposed to be doing.

I would possibly argue for stopping the booster rollout for everyone from Jan and give an additional booster to those vulnerable.

Double vaccinated youngsters will still have very good protection against hospitilastion.

The target is January isn’t it?

So it is possible although the WHO might say something on it

The target is January isn’t it?

They are not going to get to target. It was never realistic and I think everyone realised it. They gave it a good go! But will probably be 10+ million short. But without that target we may be in a much worse position.

So many people will have had omicron come January - they actually won't be eligible for the booster.

Maybe it could be switched to the vulnerable if there are a lot of doses not needed.

And the medications potentially could make a huge difference.

I’m ok with that tbh

The effort has been phenomenal

@MarshaBradyo

I recall people saying we should do a ‘circuit breaker’ with one benefit being more boosters

This doesn’t make as much sense as the oldest had theirs first and are at highest risk, and could have waning

Yes I had mine 9 weeks ago, now they say after 10 weeks it is waning. DH is mid 70s and vulnerable, I'm nearly 70. With the way rates are looking I think we need to lock ourselves in for January but a bit awkward with teenage GS living with us and he will need to go to school.

Dd isn't eligible until January because her second dose was delayed due to catching covid late August. I think they'll be through the majority of those who want them by mid January.

But yes the data does suggest protection against severe disease is maintained even after a few months from second dose, so you'd assume from boosters too

but hoping protection against severe disease is maintained

Every single bit of evidence is that it is.

www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n3149
Schools, still a gaping hole in the English covid strategy, C Pagel and A Squires

(Am not sure why they say schools have only got one or two CO2 monitors each. They’re either in the c 50% which have thus far received none, or they’ve got about one between two classrooms.)

There does seem to be protection against severe disease, but if the waning boosters are only giving 30 -50% protection against catching it AND there are loads of cases, then the overall risk of severe disease is probably higher for individuals? (As much more likely to catch it than a few weeks ago).

Does likelihood of severe illness take likelihood of catching into account? Surely not?

@WinterDeWinter

Does likelihood of severe illness take likelihood of catching into account? Surely not?

Vaccine efficiency is usually expressed as a combined measure that takes into account both the reduced likelihood of catching it and the reduced likelihood of getting very ill if you do. But likelihood of hospitalisation by age or health status is usually presented as the risk you face if you catch covid.

Thanks @Firefliess.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v3.full.pdf+html

Denmark preprint data actually showing vaccine effectiveness of unboosted for infection as negative, they equate this, not unreasonably, to group differences - the individuals in that time period of vaccination being most likely to be in the pub (or whatever a Danish pub is?) and least likely to have prior infection protection.

So whilst I'm sure the vaccine doesn't increase your risk of omicron directly, it's more evidence for vaccine doesn't stop transmission unless very short term.

Aha jan. I eventually found the bit about fans! I knew someone had said something about them. I don't know how many classrooms have convenient sockets near windows and away from people to achieve that set up.

Based on all the data you have read and followed, are you still see vulnerable or elderly family members in person inside this Christmas

We have been more or less isolating since the 17th so we can see MIL on 27th.

We are being very careful.

One of us had covid on 13th test positive so will be negative for 14days by then, and no one else has tested positive.

I think that should be ok.

We can also wear masks.

122k cases today.

And my MSOA has went over 1000 for the 1st time.