Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

It sure whether to get booster before Christmas due to side effects or wait u til after. Does anyone know how long after your booster you actually receive the benefits of it?

@CaliforniaDrumming

Thank you *@containsnuts*. Hoping the rest of the world gets boosters soon.Some of the family are over 80 :( But being very careful.

I didn't mean to alarm you, I should have worded it better . Even the over 80s still have some protection with AZ. Much better than being unvaccinated.

@mrshoho

Is that figure of 63% regardless of how long ago the 2 doses were received *@IndigoC*? There's so much conflicting data on vaccines and boosters it's hard to keep up.

@mrshoho

It’s just listed as 14+ days after the second dose, no granularity for actual time since second dose. I imagine for most it would be some time back.

@containsnuts no worries! One thing I have learnt during the pandemic is to try to worry only about what I can control.

I saw something yesterday saying that the benefits start within a few days. Sorry can’t remember source.

Even if they didn’t, in our current situation it’s surely sensible to brave any side effects in order to get protection as soon as possible?

That was to @Fmesanta btw.

Thread here pointing out that just published data on London hospitalisations with/for covid is only for acute trusts and that makes a difference:
twitter.com/victimofmaths/status/1473994916032389124?s=21

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23december2021

ONS - 1 in 45 would have tested positive in England at time of survey.

Seems like Danish test centres are all out of action due to a computer problem, means are only other "high data quality, few restrictions" country is also going to be low on data over the next few days.

@Fmesanta

It sure whether to get booster before Christmas due to side effects or wait u til after. Does anyone know how long after your booster you actually receive the benefits of it?

It probably won't protect you for Christmas, but there's going to be a hell of a lot of cases around after Christmas so it would probably be doing some good by that point.

On a personal level, I had Pfizer for my booster and apart from a slight headache that was quickly treated and a sore arm, it would not have impacted my Christmas if I had gotten it either today / tomorrow.

Dh had no side effects at all.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/adhocs/14107coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyukcharacteristicsrelatedtohavinganomicroncompatibleresultinthosewhotestpositiveforcovid19

Missed this on the 21st, surprising to me that MALES much more likely positive with omicron - why would that be, given how much more likely females are test?

And the vaccination status is super weird - why are "boosted" so much higher than non-boosted - almost as high as "travelled overseas" The unvaccinated so much less likely (presumably this could be because of infection immunity?) but why are boosted twice as likely unboosted?? Is this also due to infection (people keen to get booster more likely to not have infection?)

Does anyone know how long after your booster you actually receive the benefits of it?

Asked my pharmacist friend who said about a week.

Hmm, 60/889 men 55/927 women. Not a huge difference, in a fairly small sample?

Are women more likely to have had vaccines and boosters?

And there was a conversation previously about women being more exposed to covid, as mothers and teachers, possibly?

Yes women are significantly more likely to be vaccinated than men, despite being less vulnerable to Covid. I'll find some stats

@sirfredfredgeorge

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/adhocs/14107coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyukcharacteristicsrelatedtohavinganomicroncompatibleresultinthosewhotestpositiveforcovid19

Missed this on the 21st, surprising to me that MALES much more likely positive with omicron - why would that be, given how much more likely females are test?

And the vaccination status is super weird - why are "boosted" so much higher than non-boosted - almost as high as "travelled overseas" The unvaccinated so much less likely (presumably this could be because of infection immunity?) but why are boosted twice as likely unboosted?? Is this also due to infection (people keen to get booster more likely to not have infection?)

I think the difference between men and women might just be to do with a small sample (it's 55 women and 60 men with Omicron). For the vaccinated and boosted people what the data is saying is that the vaccines (and especially the boosters) stop the large majority of people from catching Delta at all. Vaccinated people who catch covid are therefore very likely to have Omicron not Delta.

Vaccinated people who catch covid are therefore very likely to have Omicron not Delta

Yes, but given all the individuals who caught omicron, there's no reason to assume that a boosted individual is more likely to catch omicron than an unboosted, but that is the claim is it not?

And yes of course the stats are small samples, but they're actually larger than the samples for the hospitalisation risk data.

regarding the sex difference, if women are more likely to have had boosters

and if boosters protect against omicron (as we have repeatedly been told)

then women will be less likely to get omicron

all other things being equal

@sirfred No, what I think it's saying is "if a person has covid, what factors make it more likely that it's Omicron rather than Delta?" So it's not that boosted people are 4 times more likely to catch Omicron. It's that if a boosted people does have covid, it's 4 times more likely for it to be Omicron compared with an unvaccinated person with covid. The unvaccinated are more likely to have Delta, because the vaccines are protecting the vaccinated from Delta, but not protecting them quite as well against Omicron.

Nice explanation of the stats from Imperial from James Ward on Twitter here: twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1474015502355869706?t=RGomzaMKnMYdOOftaJaDKg&s=19

Anecdata, but from the OP of the “My PCR results aren’t going to come in time are they?” thread:

‘Just phoned (119) and they guy said they've gone from doing 400k tests a day to over 1.4 million so they are extremely busy and will not investigate until it's been over 72 hours. He said to phone back on Christmas Day if we haven't had them 😞’

@JanglyBeads

Anecdata, but from the OP of the “My PCR results aren’t going to come in time are they?” thread:

‘Just phoned (119) and they guy said they've gone from doing 400k tests a day to over 1.4 million so they are extremely busy and will not investigate until it's been over 72 hours. He said to phone back on Christmas Day if we haven't had them 😞’

If you look at the dashboard you can see how many tests they're doing a day. It is indeed about 1.4 million currently, which is about 600,000 PCR tests and the rest LFTs that are reported (a very small proportion of all LFTs that are actually used I think) It was back in January that it was 400,000 a day, so it's taken a long while to build up - and most of that increase is LFTs not PCRs.

You can also see the numbers of LFT only positives has increased sharply recently - that may be people not bothering with PCRs because rates of covid are so high that they just assume it's a genuine positive. But could also point to people not doing a PCR because they're struggling to get one.

Anecdotally the PCR in our household this week came back in 12 hours.

The latest UKHSA variant report is out:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?s=21

Headline numbers for milder severity look good, but there is no attempt to correct for the many unrecorded reinfections unlike the Imperial study. Rapid waning of booster efficacy is depressing. So far there’s only data for booster VE against symptomatic illness, hospitalisation to come in the future.

"Updated vaccine effectiveness analysis shows mRNA boosters beginning to wane from one month (week 5-9) for Omicron, and as low as 30-50% effective from 10 weeks post-booster."

Wow. I didn't realise it was so bad, so soon. The first priority groups were having boosters three months ago. It doesn't bode well.

I wondered about waning

Especially in terms of delaying infections through lockdown etc

@Tupla

"Updated vaccine effectiveness analysis shows mRNA boosters beginning to wane from one month (week 5-9) for Omicron, and as low as 30-50% effective from 10 weeks post-booster."

Wow. I didn't realise it was so bad, so soon. The first priority groups were having boosters three months ago. It doesn't bode well.

Sadly it makes sense. Omicron is so immune evasive you need very high neutralising antibodies to avoid symptomatic illness and levels that high don’t last very long after boosting.

The real story will be how much the slower cavalry, the memory B and T cells, protect against severe illness in the medium-long term.