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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
FrazzledCareerWoman · 22/12/2021 16:15

So, 100k new cases today.. but hospitalisations as of 18th Dec are still plateauing 800ish, below 900 last couple of days. Is it too early to say that hospitalisations haven't been too impacted by the case spike? Cases started to really spike on the 12th, right? So next few days hospitalisations data will really matter

ifonly4 · 22/12/2021 16:18

Ouch, just seen today's case number 106k. No reporting on 25th&26th Dec - not such that's a good or a bad thing and then limited on following days.

DolphinFC · 22/12/2021 16:20

Over 1 000 000 doses given yesterday.

herecomesthsun · 22/12/2021 16:23

@FrazzledCareerWoman

So, 100k new cases today.. but hospitalisations as of 18th Dec are still plateauing 800ish, below 900 last couple of days. Is it too early to say that hospitalisations haven't been too impacted by the case spike? Cases started to really spike on the 12th, right? So next few days hospitalisations data will really matter
Hospitalisations seem to be going up on here.
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
mrshoho · 22/12/2021 16:33

@FrazzledCareerWoman

So, 100k new cases today.. but hospitalisations as of 18th Dec are still plateauing 800ish, below 900 last couple of days. Is it too early to say that hospitalisations haven't been too impacted by the case spike? Cases started to really spike on the 12th, right? So next few days hospitalisations data will really matter
We can get an idea by looking at the areas where cases have sharply risen and see if there is a rise in hospitalisations. You say hospitalisations are level but this could be because there are drops in areas not yet impacted by omicron, so the overall figure does appear flat. If you take London in isolation hospital admissions are increasing. I'm sorry I don't have data.
FrazzledCareerWoman · 22/12/2021 16:34

In main dashboard it says 813 hospitalisations but perhaps that is because it's. 18th Dec uk total. You need to go by nation to see data to 21 Dec, 1061 for England. Thanks. So rising definitely but not catastrophically

herecomesthsun · 22/12/2021 16:40

It is an evolving situation, but the fewer hospitalisations the better, of course.

Firefliess · 22/12/2021 16:45

Hospital admissions in London rising quite steeply. But numbers in ICU still flat - so either it's milder, or a lot of the admissions are incidental (v likely given the overall prevalence) or there's a really long delay in people getting seriously ill

MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 16:46

@Firefliess

Hospital admissions in London rising quite steeply. But numbers in ICU still flat - so either it's milder, or a lot of the admissions are incidental (v likely given the overall prevalence) or there's a really long delay in people getting seriously ill
Good post (hopefully not latter)
nordica · 22/12/2021 16:51

A lot of the cases, especially in London, have been in the younger age groups who wouldn't need hospitalisation generally (other than in some rare cases of course) so it feels too early to call still.

mrshoho · 22/12/2021 16:52

Is it also the case that our medical professionals have learned more about effective treatments and are not using mechanical ventilation as much as was used in the first wave? I seem to remember this during the second wave where they were using different techniques? Either way no increases in ITU beds is positive.

the80sweregreat · 22/12/2021 17:03

CPAP machine and anti viral tablets are being used more now I believe?

boys3 · 22/12/2021 17:10

Whilst I think the good people running the dashboard do deserve a well-earned break the case numbers showing for Hackney today suggest de-mob happiness may be creeping in. Smile

OP posts:
ifonly4 · 22/12/2021 17:13

Sorry, I can't remember where I read it earlier, but apparently government are keeping an eye on London admissions, if they reach 400 a day then restrictions will seriously be considered.

ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 22/12/2021 17:18

There's a file on the nhs site of primarily coVid vs just with covid

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/12/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20211216.xlsx

Looks like London primarily covid numbers are ticking up but not terribly by my reading.

About 7% up in the week to 14th December. Is that a comfort or still little/ too soon?

Bizawit · 22/12/2021 17:24

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow

There's a file on the nhs site of primarily coVid vs just with covid

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/12/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20211216.xlsx

Looks like London primarily covid numbers are ticking up but not terribly by my reading.

About 7% up in the week to 14th December. Is that a comfort or still little/ too soon?

I think this data is too old to tell us much. It’s what’s happening over the last few days really that is of interest. Hospitalisations in London do seem to be rising fairly steeply, but it’s hard to know what this means I think.

Is there any more recent data on “primarily” Covid bed occupancy?

BigWoollyJumpers · 22/12/2021 17:28

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow

There's a file on the nhs site of primarily coVid vs just with covid

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/12/Primary-Diagnosis-Supplement-20211216.xlsx

Looks like London primarily covid numbers are ticking up but not terribly by my reading.

About 7% up in the week to 14th December. Is that a comfort or still little/ too soon?

A pretty stable approx. 25% not primarily covid admissions.
ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 22/12/2021 17:31

No @Bizawit that's the latest I could find.

It's also beds occupied not admissions.

In context the 7 day average in London 3 weeks before 14th Dec (ie time lag to hospitalisation) was up 13% vs the week before.

So hospitalisation with covid is increasing about half the rate of the case numbers accounting for the lag.

There's slot of ifs in there but if that did carry on then with the current jump in cases Jan could be v ugly.

Or not, who knows.

bordermidgebite · 22/12/2021 17:33

This is interesting

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

Could give us an idea of how many hospitalisations to expect ?

toots111 · 22/12/2021 17:34

From the guardian live blog

Daily Covid hospital admissions in London reach highest daily figure since early February

In the i today Jane Merrick suggests that, if Covid hospital admissions in London remain below 400 by the end of the week, the government may decide not to impose fresh restrictions in England next week. (See 11.56am.) She wrote the article when the most recent figure for London admissions was 245, for Sunday.

According to today’s dashboard, the most recent daily figure (for Monday) is now 301. The previous Monday the figure was 169. The daily Covid hospital admission figure for London has not been this high since early February.

And the total number of Covid patients in hospital in London has now passed 2,000 for the first time this winter. It is 2,036 today. It has not been this high since the start of March. Until the first week of December the average daily figure was near the 1,000 mark, but in the last three weeks it has doubled.

London is being closely watched because the Omicron spike took off first here, and so it is assumd that what is happening in the capital will be replicated in other parts of the country.

But London also has a population with unusually low rates of vaccination. More than 30% of Londoners over the age of 12 have not yet had a first jab. Nationally the equivalent figure is 10%. That suggests London may turn out to be more of an outlier than a reliable indicator for how Omicron will drive up hospitalisation rates in the rest of the UK.

puppeteer · 22/12/2021 17:50

Any ideas where the paper behind the "Scottish study" that BBC refer to in 'Omicron wave appears milder, but concern remains' comes from?

There was suggestion from Jeremy Farrar on Monday morning R4 that there would be a paper coming out today, and that it would determine whether to government acted before xmas. I wonder if this is it.

puppeteer · 22/12/2021 17:52

(Suggestion on 'SAGE only gives govt the bad scenarios…..' thread was it may be from IC. But I don't see anything.)

Bordois · 22/12/2021 17:53

Imperial have released a report saying that omicron infection is 15-20% less likely to result in hospitalisation and 40% less likely to stay in hospital for more than 1 night.

Bordois · 22/12/2021 17:54

Theres other stats relating to vaccine status and likelihood of hospitalisations too.