Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

East of England - Cambridgeshire , Norfolk and Suffolk

Just to add, no idea if I have Omicron or Delta but I'm suspecting Omicron as I was a close contact with Delta twice in September but didn't get it at all (did PCRs as we were being asked,).

and finally this evening Surrey councils

As of today, people with covid (whether vaccinated or not) can cut their isolation time from 10 days to 7 if they have negative LFTs on both day 6 and day 7. One aim is to improve hospital staffing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/covid-self-isolation-cut-to-seven-days-for-jabbed-people-in-england

The UKHSA chief executive, Dr Jenny Harries, said: “Covid-19 is spreading quickly among the population and the pace at which Omicron is transmitting may pose a risk to running our critical public services during winter.

“This new guidance will help break chains of transmission and minimise the impact on lives and livelihoods. It is crucial that people carry out their lateral flow tests as the new guidance states and continue to follow public health advice.”

Can someone please explain to me the mechanism by which this new rule will break chains of transmission?

I presume she means compared to no isolation at all rather than comparing to 10 days?
I think it’s a good idea. Anecdotally with people I know that tested positive probably with omicron in the last week or two they have tested negative on lfts on day 4-5 plus so could it be it is clearing system quicker?

I also think 10 days is too long to sit at home feeling perfectly well for most people and puts people off testing in the first place so 7 days is a more reasonable, doable ask

I’m very pleased re change and was hoping it would be reviewed

Here is some background info from NERVTAG

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-duration-of-infectiousness-following-symptoms-onset-in-covid-19-13-april-2020/nervtag-duration-of-infectiousness-following-symptoms-onset-in-covid-19-13-april-2020#fnref:6

That is quite reassuring, and is what I've just been looking for (some scientific basis for this decision).

However, I'm not sure that this change in itself is going to help the NHS staffing all that much, as people recovering from covid 7 days from testing positive are advised not to come into contact with vulnerable people; I wonder how that would work in terms of a clinical caseload.

Yes it is clearly saying that 7 days (plus negative LFT at 6/7) is the balance between still breaking transmission and keeping critical infrastructures moving and not stopping it due to isolation

It also is good for school children (I think they are covered) when DS had it though not ill he did feel grotty for a few days. It was the last 3 days we really struggled a week would be ok

I guess I can take DD out today then if she tests negative again, she'll be pleased I think. We can go for a country walk and avoid people, maybe, if she'd like to do that.

Also,, if the NERVTAG comments were originally from April 2020, updated November 2021, presumably they pertain to delta rather than omicron.

Omicron appears to be a lot more infectious than delta.

It would be interesting to know how that infectivity appears to develop over time, anyone got any evidence for that? (It might be too early in the course of the omicron wave, however).

@herecomesthsun

I guess I can take DD out today then if she tests negative again, she'll be pleased I think. We can go for a country walk and avoid people, maybe, if she'd like to do that.

Yes do if she tests negative. It’s a really lovely frosty winter day out today. Perfect for a winter walk. No wind at all. ( at least where I am)

NHS staff who have recently tested positive but are fine after 7 days can be allocated to covid wards. They are not likely to be reinfected so quickly and other, more vulnerable, staff can go elsewhere. It should help NHS staffing as well as helping to keep the rest of the country running.

Although deaths within 28 days are following covid cases deaths with covid on the death certificate are not currently rising. This is beginning to look like omicron is less severe than Delta, although that may only be the effect of vaccines.

@alreadytaken yes covid deployment would be sensible. I'm not sure how high a risk there would be of infection with a different strain, I guess we'll find out.

I can see that if omicron is a lot more infectious overall, and symptoms become more apparent more quickly, it would be plausible either that people might be relatively more infectious for longer, or that people might stop being infectious in a shorter frame of time.

Brilliant news for us. Student DSS will be a week tomorrow so can come home for Christmas .

Seems a sensible balance to me. When rates are really high across society you're more likely to catch covid off some random person who doesn't yet know they've got it than someone who's 8-10 days away from catching it, feeling better and testing negative on a LFT. I was also reading another thread on MN someone asking for the NHS was coping and the main answer they got was no big problems from covid directly, but lots of problems from lack of staff due to isolation. This situation will only improve though if the various NHS trusts change their guidance in response to the new rules - some of them are currently going above and beyond already (asking staff who are contacts to stay home) so might not instantly reduce the isolation period for infected people.

@alreadytaken

NHS staff who have recently tested positive but are fine after 7 days can be allocated to covid wards. They are not likely to be reinfected so quickly and other, more vulnerable, staff can go elsewhere. It should help NHS staffing as well as helping to keep the rest of the country running.

Although deaths within 28 days are following covid cases deaths with covid on the death certificate are not currently rising. This is beginning to look like omicron is less severe than Delta, although that may only be the effect of vaccines.

Interesting! Is that what has been said? I thought DH (nhs) said a negative PCR had to be returned first which can take ages. What you say will certainly ease the staffing situation.

re deaths, it might be a bit soon to see the effect of the very promising treatments becoming available. They should give a further reduction in deaths though.

It is definitely an issue for the NHS that they don't want vulnerable patients to catch covid in hospital. That is going to be very very hard to manage with omicron.

@hercomesthesun I have tags turned off, only return if I want to.

Omicron is going to be the dominant variant. Remains to be seen how protective it is against reinfection but reinfection rates have been low for other variants and reinfection within a short period even rarer.

@lelivre given that PCR can stay positive for 90 days the NHS cant afford people off that long. Individual trusts can set their own rules but if any are bonkers enough to want negative PCR after infection (not contact) then they would be failing patients.

@lelivre My nurse friend tells me that our local hospital used to require staff who were household contacts of covid cases to isolate, but has now changed that to require them to attend work and be redeployed onto covid wards. Can see the logic there, and even more sensible to do that with the recently recovered (who are neither a threat to the patients on the covid ward, nor at risk from them) Though my friend tells me it is not a popular policy as people generally don't like being redeployed to the covid wards.

Ah, I @ people to show which bit of the conversation I am responding to, a lot of the time.

Ah yes @fireflies he has had that as well this wk (the contact isolation issue) it's primary so he can't redeploy to a covid ward. I'm sure this will be changed. I can see why some would not want to go.

Yes @alreadytaken it was the case in his trust this autumn; a negative PCR had to be returned. Most of the time it hasn't been a problem but it has on occasion. I agree it's going to have to change. The modelling he's been given projecting staff absences early next year (to write contingency's) is practically giving him sleepless nights as it is, keeping staff off longer than needed is going to compromise care. It's not hard to imagine the difficulties, locally we've had clinics and surgeries closing doors due to staff outbreaks this autumn.

[quote Firefliess]@lelivre My nurse friend tells me that our local hospital used to require staff who were household contacts of covid cases to isolate, but has now changed that to require them to attend work and be redeployed onto covid wards. Can see the logic there, and even more sensible to do that with the recently recovered (who are neither a threat to the patients on the covid ward, nor at risk from them) Though my friend tells me it is not a popular policy as people generally don't like being redeployed to the covid wards.[/quote]
Oh this is such a good idea.

I can see positive-but-asymptomatic staff being deployed in the same way.

Hi all

Is data available anywhere on the people in hospital, vaccination status and specifics of " underlying health condition "

At the start you could look at the breakdown and the impact of say diabetes on probability of ending up in hospitals or dead and I'd like to understand that for vaccinated people now

The sort of information-that's used in the age calculator in the starting post but it would be nice to have an age calculator ( or at least the info that is behind that )that took into account vaccination status

Someone reported on here that CEV women in their 40s were a group at risk; there would be a clear issue with possibly being parents and teachers I guess.

However, there were no stats; I'd like to see some evidence for that.