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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 17:55

@Bordois

Imperial have released a report saying that omicron infection is 15-20% less likely to result in hospitalisation and 40% less likely to stay in hospital for more than 1 night.
This sounds like the data

I wonder if there an indication what this means for restrictions anywhere

MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 17:56

On R4 right now

Bordois · 22/12/2021 17:56

Some stats

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 17:57

Skip that on to weather 😂

Bordois · 22/12/2021 17:58

Meh, its not as if its important or anything 🤔

Lalalablahblahblah · 22/12/2021 18:01

This reply has been withdrawn

Message from MNHQ: This post has been withdrawn

MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 18:02

Ha I know. Sounds like analysis time is needed

I know it was being waited on so I’m keen to know re what it means for restrictions

I guess they can have some time ;

CaliforniaDrumming · 22/12/2021 18:03

Seems like good news? I hope we avoid a lockdown and vaccine passports.

PassingByAndThoughtIdDropIn · 22/12/2021 18:11

It looks like Acre Lane in Brixton, Lambeth, is the first MSOA to pass the psychologically important 5,000 per 100,000 barrier. Did anywhere in the North-West exceed that in earlier waves?
I was wondering whether we had the physical testing capacity to go any higher, but the positivity rate in Lambeth still seems to be "only" 25%.

peridito · 22/12/2021 18:28

Sounding like good news to me 🎄🎄🎄

PassingByAndThoughtIdDropIn · 22/12/2021 18:37

Bordois's clipping suggests the Natalie Dean point to me. Ie apparent lower severity is because the cases in previously uninfected and/or vaccinated people which have the same severity as Delta are being diluted in severity with a bunch of new milder breakthrough cases.
mobile.twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1468988174693289994

But my understanding is incomplete - feel free to correct me.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/12/2021 18:43

Hospitalisations in London do seem to be rising fairly steeply, but it’s hard to know what this means I think

Remember to also look at number in hospital, this is rising less steeply I believe - (I've not graphed it and it's tricky to compare 'cos when declining you expect it to go down faster as more people leave after longer stays - so there's few periods to compare)

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/12/2021 18:45

Does it mean that primary course of AZ is considered more or less effective than the MrNA vaccines?

More effective against severe outcomes, less effective against mild. There's a problem though as different groups got the vaccines so hard to tease out correlations.

boys3 · 22/12/2021 19:08

Falllowfield Central in Manchester had a rate of 8335 per 100,000 w/e 3rd October 2020.

Arboretum, Forest and Trent University in Nottingham reached 6212 the following week. With Durham city at 5356 per 100,000 the same week, and was still over 5,000 the week after that.

All uni related.

As the MSOA data has a five day lag I think we will see further case rates past 5000 per 100,000 over the coming days.

OP posts:
nordica · 22/12/2021 19:28

@sirfredfredgeorge

Does it mean that primary course of AZ is considered more or less effective than the MrNA vaccines?

More effective against severe outcomes, less effective against mild. There's a problem though as different groups got the vaccines so hard to tease out correlations.

But presumably if you are better protected from getting infected in the first place with the MrNA vaccines, then a severe outcome is less likely too as a result? As you'd have to become infected first for it to develop into a severe illness.
AlexandraEiffel · 22/12/2021 19:30

@sirfredfredgeorge

Hospitalisations in London do seem to be rising fairly steeply, but it’s hard to know what this means I think

Remember to also look at number in hospital, this is rising less steeply I believe - (I've not graphed it and it's tricky to compare 'cos when declining you expect it to go down faster as more people leave after longer stays - so there's few periods to compare)

Apologies if this isn't useful, as I've not read every post, but people in hospital (as well as admissions) is graphed several times here:

data.spectator.co.uk

Firefliess · 22/12/2021 19:37

Thanks for the link to the Imperial study. I think what it's saying about the different vaccines is that people who catch covid after AZ are less likely to go to hospital than those who do so after Pfizer/Moderna. But Pfizer/Moderna vaccines make you less likely to catch it (with symptoms) in the first place, so overall the risk of catching Omicron and going to hospital with it is about the same with both types of vaccine (you're just more likely to get mild covid after AZ) I can't seem to see anything on booster impact though ?

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/12/2021 19:41

But presumably if you are better protected from getting infected in the first place with the MrNA vaccines, then a severe outcome is less likely too as a result? As you'd have to become infected first for it to develop into a severe illness

Except the stated protection is against "symptomatic infection", so we don't actually know if there is a reduction in infection with MRNA, it's always been a bit annoying that AZ and MrNA have recorded different things.

And if it is just high circulating antibodies, unless you're boosting every 3 months (I concede people will likely be) then the waning will be significant - Although the reported 70% reduction in infection is not good enough for anyone with large number of social engagements with the current prevalence avoiding infection anyway, even before it wanes. So I'd still say the higher protection against serious illness is what you need to go for.

Either way, I think the study is too small, with too many confounding things to say anything with assurance.

Firefliess · 22/12/2021 19:54

Link to Edinburgh study, also out today, which suggests 2/3 reduced likelihood of hospitalisation from Omicron (though small study) www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/severity-of-omicron-variant-of-concern-and-vaccine-effectiveness-

CaliforniaDrumming · 22/12/2021 19:55

I am so desperate for good news that I will grasp at straws...

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 22/12/2021 19:59

@CaliforniaDrumming

I am so desperate for good news that I will grasp at straws...
We all get a bit like that just before it all goes pear-shaped again.
MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 20:02

Ah he comes the joy 😂 don’t worry California

IndigoC · 22/12/2021 20:02

If I'm reading that Imperial paper correctly my individual risk is worse than I anticipated. As someone with 3 x mRNA vaccine doses and no prior infection I am 67% less likely to be hospitalised than an unvaccinated person was with Delta. But I have 90+% protection against Delta hospitalisation (according to other studies).

This is very good news for those who've had a prior infection but it does put the SA data in perspective for those of us who've only had vaccines. Clearly breadth of immune response matters against this variant.

MarshaBradyo · 22/12/2021 20:04

Does that mean the sustained high delta cases will be more beneficial?

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 22/12/2021 20:09

I can't shake the idea that South Africa having had a big Beta wave and the U.K. not might turn out to be pertinent in any comparison.

But here's some data to justify this post:

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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