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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
ILookAtTheFloor · 21/12/2021 16:12

I can't help but give myself a wry smile for seeing 90k cases and thinking phew.. Not too bad actually Grin

Firefliess · 21/12/2021 16:14

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]Tuesday's figures don't seem too bad

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
Agreed - does look to be flattening. And ICU occupancy in London (where case rates have been rocketing a good 2-3 weeks now) still flat, with no sign of even the slightest upturn.

MarshaBradyo · 21/12/2021 16:16

I went straight to London MV beds too

Firefliess · 21/12/2021 16:17

And the exciting new map colour is..... Black! Map now showing clearly that central London has had the highest case rate over the last week. No local authorities outside London are in the new black zone (over 1600 cases in last 7 days per 100,000 population)

herecomesthsun · 21/12/2021 16:21

I'm so very pleased that hospitalisations don't look to be rising very much on that.

I am not ruling out the need for more measures etc but I am hoping that boosters and the new medicines becoming available now will mean that we have far less of a crisis in late Dec/ Jan.

awkwardperson · 21/12/2021 16:24

I don't get it. If the new variant doubles very say or two how is the number from yesterday less today?

People have it but not testing or is this new variant not as bad as government were making out?

I'm confused and really don't know what to believe now.

awkwardperson · 21/12/2021 16:25

@Nellodee

Wouldn’t we have expected testing to rise in London though, rather than remain flat?
Unless people are not testing?
AlecTrevelyan006 · 21/12/2021 16:27

number of tests still going up

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

the80sweregreat · 21/12/2021 16:27

I still think people are not testing or recording it.
I haven't any evidence, but I know enough people who don't wear masks and haven't been vaccinated, so why would they do tests now ?

MarshaBradyo · 21/12/2021 16:28

@the80sweregreat

I still think people are not testing or recording it. I haven't any evidence, but I know enough people who don't wear masks and haven't been vaccinated, so why would they do tests now ?
80s you’ll need the data on this thread ;
BigWoollyJumpers · 21/12/2021 16:29

Question for the knowledgable ones.... did "they" ever sort out the conundrum of Uni students registered GP, versus their actual address?

I notice our Uni area has had a huge spike. Now, that could still be students there, I do know a number of students around the country stuck at their uni for xmas, poor things, but, what about those who have already gone home? Do they still count against their Uni address or home address?? Remember Kingston last year had some issue with this.

Sunshinegirl82 · 21/12/2021 16:32

I suspect this is why we are not seeing additional measures yet, the increases I think were expected just aren't there. That's not to say they won't come of course but I would have thought we'd be seeing more indications of increases by now unless I'm missing something.

Hopefully this means that the anecdata coming out of SA is/was fairly accurate. I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed.

BigWoollyJumpers · 21/12/2021 16:34

I still think people are not testing or recording it

I think huge numbers of people are doing daily testing at the moment. Everyone I know is, because of Xmas. However, we are not logging the results when negative, and I am sure many others aren't. However, those that are getting positive LFT's all seem to be getting confirmatory PCR's, so from a personal point of view, not data, those that are positive, are definitely in the figures.

We know an awful lot of colleagues of DH and DD (London), and her friends and housemates friends and families, and other DD university friends, lots and lots and lots of positives. So we are all LFTing madly.

awkwardperson · 21/12/2021 16:38

@Sunshinegirl82

I suspect this is why we are not seeing additional measures yet, the increases I think were expected just aren't there. That's not to say they won't come of course but I would have thought we'd be seeing more indications of increases by now unless I'm missing something.

Hopefully this means that the anecdata coming out of SA is/was fairly accurate. I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed.

This

AlecTrevelyan006 · 21/12/2021 16:41

@Sunshinegirl82

I suspect this is why we are not seeing additional measures yet, the increases I think were expected just aren't there. That's not to say they won't come of course but I would have thought we'd be seeing more indications of increases by now unless I'm missing something.

Hopefully this means that the anecdata coming out of SA is/was fairly accurate. I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed.

I suppose the interesting thing would be if we could prove the impact of the large of amount 'self-imposed' restrictions that many people have adopted
Firefliess · 21/12/2021 16:41

@awkwardperson

I don't get it. If the new variant doubles very say or two how is the number from yesterday less today?

People have it but not testing or is this new variant not as bad as government were making out?

I'm confused and really don't know what to believe now.

It doesn't just double every two days by magic. It was doubling every two days a week or two ago, but now the growth looks as if it's now slowing down. The biggest cause of this is likely to be behaviour changes - people are cancelling large events, seeing fewer others, working from home etc. If people reduce their contacts then the virus has fewer opportunities to spread. Other things that will be slowing it down too include boosters, increased use of LFTs and increasing numbers (especially of the most sociable people) already having had it.
peridito · 21/12/2021 16:41

I think the situation is grim in London because of the impact on staffing in hospitals .
Guy's and St Thomas' situation has been reported with only essential services continuing .Kings is closing wards ( my neighbour works in management there) ,
There is no up to date data ( that I've been able to find ) ,the most recent seems to be July .

MarshaBradyo · 21/12/2021 16:43

@Sunshinegirl82

I suspect this is why we are not seeing additional measures yet, the increases I think were expected just aren't there. That's not to say they won't come of course but I would have thought we'd be seeing more indications of increases by now unless I'm missing something.

Hopefully this means that the anecdata coming out of SA is/was fairly accurate. I'm keeping my fingers firmly crossed.

It was interesting to hear ex SAGE (JF) talk about uncertainty and correct to wait this morning

So far narrative from them has been act earlier

natrew · 21/12/2021 16:44

Wouldn’t we have expected testing to rise in London though, rather than remain flat?

The rules in schools around positive cases changed recently. Our school was asking for PCRs if there was more than one case in a class, that changed to being asked to do LFDs daily. Add that to the fact it is not as easy to get hold of LFDs at the moment.

peridito · 21/12/2021 16:47

I appreciate the data on here but I also appreciate comments .

I'd also appreciate it if those who don't wish to read comments made without data could just scroll past .

MarshaBradyo · 21/12/2021 16:50

I appreciated post asking for back up data 😂

Anyway we’ll never agree.

sirfredfredgeorge · 21/12/2021 16:57

I don't get it. If the new variant doubles very say or two how is the number from yesterday less today?

My hypothesis on what is happening that I think fits the data. Omicron is a huge percentage of everyone in a pub or restaurant on the weekend of the 10/11/12 got infected, this led to the peak on the 15th, doubling rate really relevant, we just know it's high enough to infect lots of people in the pub - everyone who hadn't had a booster in the previous few days or had delta, and still maybe 10-20% of both of those. That's how infectious it was.

Now the positive thing that being so infectious was, that now there are no big susceptible groups, so it doesn't matter that R0 is still really high, because there's now no places where you could meet that many - the people still going to the pub were the groups who made it through the first weekend unscathed - ie the genuinely likely won't catch it. Anyone who was unsure about going to the pub cancelled.

So now it's only small numbers of contacts, with the susceptible being even lower, Rt will have dropped to ~1 in the london area because there's not the large groups still available to infect.

The problem comes, is are the ones who still can be infected a much more vulnerable demographic and even if R is 1, will those catching it be 90,000 over 60's, when last week we had 90,000 20 year olds.

I also do wonder if the k-factor of omicron is even more extreme, and there are massive super spreaders taking out entire pubs, but lots of people don't produce at all - we certainly have anecdotes of omicron +ve people never managing to trigger an LFD, so that's still low viral load individuals? But no evidence at all of that yet.

herecomesthsun · 21/12/2021 17:03

@BigWoollyJumpers

I still think people are not testing or recording it

I think huge numbers of people are doing daily testing at the moment. Everyone I know is, because of Xmas. However, we are not logging the results when negative, and I am sure many others aren't. However, those that are getting positive LFT's all seem to be getting confirmatory PCR's, so from a personal point of view, not data, those that are positive, are definitely in the figures.

We know an awful lot of colleagues of DH and DD (London), and her friends and housemates friends and families, and other DD university friends, lots and lots and lots of positives. So we are all LFTing madly.

Yes we have a child tested +ve and everyone else in the house is testing, as we have been asked to, but the -ve results are often not logged.

We are hoping to see their 1 surviving grandparent 15 days after the positive test, which should just about be ok if no one else gets a +ve. We are being incredibly antisocial meanwhile.

boys3 · 21/12/2021 17:35

Intriguing numbers for Monday spec date in Inner London - all the usual caveats as well as today being the first day of reporting for yesterday.

Nevertheless.....

In England 20,324 cases for yesterday as compared to 16975 this time last week. These figures relating to where regional and below geography confirmed.

50% day 1 increases in both the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber. Just over 30% in both East of England and East Midlands. Around 25% up in South East and Outer London. 17% in North West, 12% in West Midlands.

Inner London 2506 reported this time last week for Monday, 2310 today. Not a huge decrease, and of course all those caveats, however will be interesting to see how the next few days play out.

Slight first day fall in the South West, but that more likely due to Omicron being stuck somewhere on the M5. Rate in the South West through to Sunday still 20% up.

OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 21/12/2021 17:50

Slight first day fall in the South West, but that more likely due to Omicron being stuck somewhere on the M5. Rate in the South West through to Sunday still 20% up

But Sanger had omicron at 30% of SW cases 10 days ago didn't they? It looked to be well set in Bristol?

Swipe left for the next trending thread