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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Thread gallery
158
Dirtystreetpie · 21/12/2021 17:54

Are deaths getting higher?

cantkeepawayforever · 21/12/2021 18:07

Most schools closed last Friday..... so given the shorter incubation period for Omicron, we're probably at the point where school-caught cases have mostly been captured. As children will have many times fewer contacts when out of school, this could have an impact on overall figures?

Firefliess · 21/12/2021 18:07

@Dirtystreetpie

Are deaths getting higher?
No, not as yet coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
sirfredfredgeorge · 21/12/2021 18:09

cant there were relatively few school omicron cases - as boys showed yesterday in the age data even as we've had these massive rises, kids cases have continued to fall. (presumably they have too much delta immunity and not relying on low vaccine)

Yes, Sanger on the 11th, had Swindon, Bristol, North Devon, and Somerset all having over 10% omicron - where's that gone if west country is falling?

boys3 · 21/12/2021 18:10

@sirfredfredgeorge

Slight first day fall in the South West, but that more likely due to Omicron being stuck somewhere on the M5. Rate in the South West through to Sunday still 20% up

But Sanger had omicron at 30% of SW cases 10 days ago didn't they? It looked to be well set in Bristol?

That might be more the size and rural it’s of much of the South West.

Bristol up 30% day 1 cases and it 7 day rate to Sunday past 1,000 per 100,000, as compared with 512 in the prior seven days.

Conversely Cornwall, bigger population than Bristol, has seen its seven day rate stay essentially flat 479 vs 470 a week earlier. Monday cases down a lot but I think there is a bigger caveat with that in terms of speed of test results.

Plymouth seven day rate dropped from 840 to 740, Monday slight fall, again speed of reporting a caveat.

Devon overall 7 day rate down.

The more eastern bits such as Wiltshire, Swindon etc up at least 30%, 45% in Swindon, 70% in Bath and NE Somerset.

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Firefliess · 21/12/2021 18:12

@cantkeepawayforever

Most schools closed last Friday..... so given the shorter incubation period for Omicron, we're probably at the point where school-caught cases have mostly been captured. As children will have many times fewer contacts when out of school, this could have an impact on overall figures?
We've seen case rates fall quite noticeably in the school holidays previously. They have started falling a bit in school aged children prior to the holidays this time though, and the huge rise in cases has been very much in the 20-40 age range, so I'm not sure we'll notice that much of an impact from the school holidays. Christmas is also a funny time of year when a lot changes across all of society in terms of how people mix - unlike, say, the October half term which has no impact on people without children. So any impact of closed schools might be harder to spot that this time of year (as well as due to Omicron)
cantkeepawayforever · 21/12/2021 18:13

But the figures don't count Omicron and Delta separately, do they? So the downturn in children's cases (for obvious closure of schools reasons) WILL depress the overall figures whether delta or omicron, surely?

alreadytaken · 21/12/2021 18:46

The South West had a large Delta wave not that long ago - over 40,000 PCR tests wrongly reported as negative remember. Although Omicron is reinfecting people more than previous variants that is a bit of a barrier to infection.

EndoplasmicReticulum · 21/12/2021 19:36

The Covid dashboard has the announcement below today. So yesterday's figure didn't have double-tests removed, and today's had two days worth.

21 December 2021
Log category:
DATA ISSUE
Issue with cases by test type
Because of a processing issue, positive lateral flow tests followed by a negative PCR test in England were not removed on 20 Dec 2021. Today's figures include removals for 2 days.

sirfredfredgeorge · 21/12/2021 21:20

Endoplasmic that happened a few days ago too, when the case rates are this high the few false positive LFD's don't make a dent in the case numbers really, it was a couple of hundred case adjustment then but I didn't have the data open to look today. (ie 100 per day)

EndoplasmicReticulum · 21/12/2021 21:50

Thanks Sirfred - I was trying to work out how much / if any of a difference that would make.

boys3 · 21/12/2021 21:52

England admissions and hospitalisations 2020 and 2021 comparator graphs

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 21:54

and rates per million by NHS region just from start November - seven day average for both as with the previous comparator set

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 21:56

cases in England and deaths within 28 days (by date of death, with a seven day lag applied)

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:01

Inner London councils, rates per 100,000 from 6th Dec to 19th Dec - so potentially the 19th slightly under-cooked, although as in almost every instance a two day lag is still on an upward trajectory not the biggest of issues.

Councils split over three graphs - same y axis scale applied to all.

Peak borough rate close to 3,000 per 100,000

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:06

Outer London boroughs; again split over three graphs. Apologies for the colour clash between Bexley and Kingston; not quite sure what happened. Again y axis scale consistent across the three graphs. Unlike the 3,000 max scale for Inner Boroughs only 2,000 max needed for the Outer ones.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:08

South West councils. These are the unitaries. Rapid rise in Bristol, more mixed picture across the rest, although most on an upward trajectory. y axis scale on second graph less than the the first one to avoid too much bunching.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:10

South West Devon councils

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:11

South West Gloucestershire councils. Fastest increase in Cotswold

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:13

South West Somerset councils; far more sedate pace of increase; dip on the 19th more likely to due to cases still to be reported through as opposed to a real decrease.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:38

East of England - unitary councils

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:38

East of England - Essex councils

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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EducatingArti · 21/12/2021 22:39

@sirfredfredgeorge

I don't get it. If the new variant doubles very say or two how is the number from yesterday less today?

My hypothesis on what is happening that I think fits the data. Omicron is a huge percentage of everyone in a pub or restaurant on the weekend of the 10/11/12 got infected, this led to the peak on the 15th, doubling rate really relevant, we just know it's high enough to infect lots of people in the pub - everyone who hadn't had a booster in the previous few days or had delta, and still maybe 10-20% of both of those. That's how infectious it was.

Now the positive thing that being so infectious was, that now there are no big susceptible groups, so it doesn't matter that R0 is still really high, because there's now no places where you could meet that many - the people still going to the pub were the groups who made it through the first weekend unscathed - ie the genuinely likely won't catch it. Anyone who was unsure about going to the pub cancelled.

So now it's only small numbers of contacts, with the susceptible being even lower, Rt will have dropped to ~1 in the london area because there's not the large groups still available to infect.

The problem comes, is are the ones who still can be infected a much more vulnerable demographic and even if R is 1, will those catching it be 90,000 over 60's, when last week we had 90,000 20 year olds.

I also do wonder if the k-factor of omicron is even more extreme, and there are massive super spreaders taking out entire pubs, but lots of people don't produce at all - we certainly have anecdotes of omicron +ve people never managing to trigger an LFD, so that's still low viral load individuals? But no evidence at all of that yet.

I am currently isolating with Covid but have had negative LFT throughout. I only went for a PCR because I had a very mild cough on Saturday.
boys3 · 21/12/2021 22:39

East of England - Hertfordshire* councils

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
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