Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@sirfredfredgeorge sorry missed a question about any delays in cases coming through.

These go back to start of September 2020 and show the seven day rolling percentage for spec dates reported within 2 days, 3 days and 4-5 days.

The whole 5 day lag thing really dates back to when getting to 95% of cases by day 5 was often a challenge.

These are the graphs for percentage within no more than 2 days dating back to September 2020 and then one just since start of July this year.

Although with the high case rates the most recent percentages have dipped back they are still holding at just over the 80% mark.

then the same set but based on percentage covering the three most recent days.

Since spring this has regularly hit the 95% mark, again even with the peak cases in the last week still holding largely at 93%-94%.

Finally 4-5 days on the same graph. Day 4

Not quite data but

From 17 Dec 2021 to 26 Jan 2022 inclusive:

- Self-certification for sickness will be extended from 7 to 28 days for
people accessing #StatutorySickPay
- There will be no requirement for a fit note to access other benefits

Not a department usually renowned for being easy to deal with. Is this the expected peak dates?

just to add all those graphs relate to case reporting in England

@Postdatedpandemic

Not quite data but

From 17 Dec 2021 to 26 Jan 2022 inclusive:

- Self-certification for sickness will be extended from 7 to 28 days for
people accessing #StatutorySickPay
- There will be no requirement for a fit note to access other benefits

Not a department usually renowned for being easy to deal with. Is this the expected peak dates?

I thought this was more to do with GPs being less available to issue multiple sick-notes/fit notes due to being tied up with the booster programme?

That's quite impressive @boys3 but I do feel it will be difficult to maintain that accuracy when a peak is expected over a significant public holiday.

Thanks boys! So yes, much better than last year despite way more testing, so not much indication that we're going to see a big backlog shipped in here. And 4/5 days especially looks very secure.

age breakdown of cases in England from the gender files available through the dashboard.

These show the 7 day periods to 4th, 11th, and 18th December - the latter will not be fully complete; however it has the peak seven day total (so far). These show therefore:

Cases by age band

% change for 11th vs 4th; 18th vs 11th; and then the two week change

Case number change for the same

Worth noting that whilst cases overall have increased by just over 70% from w/e 18th vs w/e 4th ; or just over 200,000 cases in the 5-9 and 10-14 groups there is a near to 15% fall in cases.

As highlighted these are for England overall and splitting out London might be interesting. Has no one on Twitter done that yet?

Whilst from far lower bases increases in the older age groups are not good to see:

As highlighted these are for England overall and splitting out London might be interesting. Has no one on Twitter done that yet?
Not as clear as your data.

I was just looking at that positivity chart on Twitter. It only seems to go up to 15 December though (if you look at the data behind it) - does anyone know how to find positivity rates for the last few days?

The surveillance report publishes them by region but that won't be out until Thursday.

I think that the daily data for the next week is unlikely to be accurate. So any drops should be interpreted with caution. The same happened last year.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Is Christmas the time to lay off the daily diet of stats?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59704282

Whilst data is certainly likely to be different, can we please make sure every discussion of data is not responded to simply by "people won't be testing", "people aren't testing", "it's christmas don't read anything into it" etc. Unless you have good examples of why it's not representative - it's pretty obvious when number of tests drop, so you can use the data to look at what might be missing, please do, rather than just commentary.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-protection-three-months-b1979772.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1640076432

I saw this and though it might be interesting to some of you on this thread. It's specifically about the use of AZ at 12 week intervals - something really only done in UK and Brazil. If accurate, it could explain why the situation is so grim in the UK and why there is an agressive push for boosters. In summary it says there is:

"approximately a fivefold increase in the chance of being admitted to hospital or dying from the virus nearly five months after being double vaccinated".

However, I'm not sure how it fits with Javid's assertion that 9 out of 10 people in hospital are unvaccinated - BBC.

containsnuts I don't agree that the situation is grim in the UK, indeed it actually looks much better than almost anywhere on cases to healthcare requirements ratio - but that is almost certainly because reported cases are so high in the UK due to much higher detection rates.

But I do also think there's a problem with the data, the 5 months happens to be the time period between vaccination and the delta wave in the UK, there was almost no chance of catching covid in between those times, so it's much harder to discriminate vaccine waning vs low vaccine efficacy.

However, I'm not sure how it fits with Javid's assertion that 9 out of 10 people in hospital are unvaccinated - BBC

Well that's not true on any currently reported measure, but it could still be valid, because so many of the covid deaths are still in the very oldest age group, this individuals rarely spend any time in hospital, it's the younger more ostensibly fitter individuals who tend to have the longest stays, so you have 9 unvaccinated 40 year olds there for a month, and the 10th bed taken up by 85 year olds for a couple of days at a time before leaving. So it's not completely at odds with the data.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Whilst data is certainly likely to be different, can we please make sure every discussion of data is not responded to simply by "people won't be testing", "people aren't testing", "it's christmas don't read anything into it" etc. Unless you have good examples of why it's not representative - it's pretty obvious when number of tests drop, so you can use the data to look at what might be missing, please do, rather than just commentary.

Unfortunately I can only find data up to 15th for London. PCR testing was down by about 20% on the 15th compared to the week before. Positivity was up by about 70% for the same dates. There looks to be a trend of less testing and increasing positivity which would follow if cases aren't decreasing. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days. Please could we also not make sweeping assumptions from a few days of holiday data, (we all know the uncertainties around the start of school holidays even without Christmas thrown into the mix) that cases have peaked. I hope they have!

Remember to read:
"Data for the most recent days, highlighted in grey, are incomplete"

All of those are incomplete, that are lower.

The 7 day tolling above is less incomplete (I have no idea why) but as you see there there's 663k up to the 15th which doesn't match the data on the daily reports, but it's an absolute 7 day record by a long way, in fact every 7 day period after the 10th at least has set a new record.

Testing has not dropped in London according to the dashboard.

Wouldn’t we have expected testing to rise in London though, rather than remain flat?

Every day from the 10th (actually 6th) has set a new record Nellodee, as in testing has increased.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=region%26areaName=London#card-weekly_number_of_people_receiving_a_pcr_test_and_positivity

So yes, it's gone up a lot and hasn't remained flat, just as you'd expect.

Sorry, just read the post above, not the actual data,and made an incorrect assumption from not fallen.

Thank you Fred, I'd forgotten about the lag. This still doesn't explain the increased positivity which is presumably worked out on the more complete 7 day period data as it's in the same table. If you compare the graphs of testing and cases for the same period, the cases have been increasing at a steeper rate than tests.

Positivity increases because people are much more likely to have it, not just because tests are constrained? If you're out catching a respiratory virus (ie getting testable symptoms) then chances are you're catching omicron it's more infectious and more prevalent than any other.

Tuesday's figures don't seem too bad

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/