Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas
Lambeth you say

The 15th Dec is the latest day we have complete data for expect the 16th + to progress to higher numbers

Looked at like that, it seems too early to call.

But it would be great if numbers had peaked naturally last week, of course.

Also agree that it is too early to say it has peaked, unless I'm missing something.

Using a two day lag, which given the upward trajectory in cases some might consider presents a more blunt assessment:

Lambeth 2813 per 100,000. For the spec dates last Monday to yesterday as reported today 8648 cases at the equivalent reporting point a week ago 2567 cases.

Wandsworth 2687 per 100,000

Hackney 2427 per 100,000.

Southwark 2268 per 100,000

Islington 2187 per 100,000

Hammersmith 2171 per 100,000

Lewisham 1955 per 100,000

Tower Hamlets 1920 per 100,000

Merton 1841 per 100,000

Haringey 1803 per 100,000

Richmond 1677 per 100,000

Greenwich 1654 per 100,000

Brentwood in Essex 1632 per 100,000

Camden 1616 per 100,000

Waltham Forest 1605 per 100,000

On that two day lag 87 councils in England have a rate of at least 1000 per 100,000

The median rate just below 700 per 100,000

Just 14 councils with a rate under 400 per 100,000

Omicron won't peak until it has run out of people to infect. That should take a month or so.

The 15th Dec is the latest day we have complete data for expect the 16th + to progress to higher numbers

We no more have complete data for the 15th than the 16th, we just, after 5 days expect the number to change by only a small amount, 2 cases today were added to the 28th October 2020. But for 5 days before, it's rarely more than 3% of cases added (today the 15th added 1.4%) For the 16th to overhaul the 15th in London, it would need over 6% of cases added. Now it's possible delays in testing are up, but there's been little evidence of it so far - as I looked at yesterday.

Similar unlikely increases required for the 17th.

So whilst we don't have "complete" data as per the dashboard for the 16th, I'm confident the 16th will not be higher than the 15th, whether this is THE peak or just a peak as it goes up, is a different question, that we still don't know,

And of course, the rest of the country needs more omicron waves, and they may progress very differently to London, they certainly won't have peaked yet.

lonely the graph your showing ends on the 15th, and in any case, such a 7 day one won't start declining until well after the peak individual day unless the downslope is larger than the upslope - it won't be.

peridito but some testing is much less discretionary than others, and surely you'd have different behaviour by age if it was purely to avoid isolation? - yes ,I agree .So complex .
Would schools closing for Xmas be a factor ? With staff and students reducing tests ? Or ramping up to guide behaviour in visiting older relatives .

Pillar 2 still running well in excess of any previous period other than early march (anyone know why there were so many then?) 50%+ above early December could Easter holidays in early April have affected things ?

On the 9th Dec some Dutch pundits pronounced the Omicron wave over, see my post of Sat 18-Dec-21 19:22:30

peridito I actually misread the march numbers, when I looked back to really long ago to just check, I looked at LFD+PCR combined, and the March was back to school LFD testing for all secondary schools, hence the big numbers, it did not result in large number of PCR tests. It's totally the peak PCR testing.

And the data showing sickness levels for staff in hospitals ( and other services ) ?

@Postdatedpandemic that isn’t data for the Netherlands

And since it’s Panto season “There is nothing like a Dane. Nothing in the world ;)”

ONS age adjusted figures for risk of covid death - 28x higher in the unvaccinated twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1472892926833438722

@Notmulan

And since it’s Panto season “There is nothing like a Dane. Nothing in the world ;)”

That is the peak.

Oh no it isn't

Oh yes it is

etc

Full ons report www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween1januaryand31october2021

Does anyone have any idea when it might reach the north? Here in Yorkshire our rates are falling or staying level. Just bracing for when omicron hits, but it must be here by now as people will be travelling from London?

[quote Notmulan]@Postdatedpandemic that isn’t data for the Netherlands[/quote]
You'd better tell the Danish government that
covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/omikron

Whoops I seem to have feck up Danes and Dutch

Havent had one of these posted for a while - intensive care data shows average and median age of covid patients in ICU lower from May to now than Sept - Apr probably because more pregnant women in ICU and virtually all of them unvaccinated. www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

@Elvinelf anecdotally - in my area of Yorkshire we peaked just before half term and cases have been relatively low since then. But in the last 2 days loads of colleagues and friends have tested positive . All who have managed previously to avoid it

@MilkBread we peaked here around then too, but that was pre the omicron variant.

@MilkBread which area are you in just out of interest?

@Elvinelf South Leeds - my guess is that we will start to see cases rise very soon - as soon as the testing numbers catch up