Frightened by Dr Nabbarro video

[Whatisthisworld]

Are we going to get ill?

That video 😨

I don't think there's going to be 2.5 million people infected per day by the end of Jan. It's going to climb rapidly over the next week and then either (i) it will be such an obvious problem even to the most anti-lockdown Tories that there will be a shut down and it will start dropping, or (ii) it will run out of steam as enough people will have already caught it/had delta recently/been triple vaccinated/keeping out of the way of others and it will rapidly decelerate. Whether there will be a shutdown depends on whether it overwhelms the NHS/general infrastructure before it starts running out of steam without substantially more intervention.

I do see one slither of light. Surely if this thing is going to pass through as all in vast numbers, extremely quickly then it will be over quicker too?

I watched it earlier but he's saying exactly what Chris Whitty said in the press conference its just that CW is kind of serene and this guy is full on.

I wish he'd fuck off.

Monitoring since jan 2020 my arse. I don't recall him saying anything like this back then. Why didn't he warn about COVID then?

All this criticism of Dr Nabbarro just because what he is saying is not what people want to hear. He is a leading public health medical doctor with 45 years experience and has no political agenda. Shall we listen to him or some random on Mumsnet who is reflecting on what their neighbour's sister's dog's view is? FFS just wake up and smell the coffee. And, as usual, the UK will suffer more than most because we have a Government of idiots with zero credibility putting their own agenda ahead of public health.

@FreeBritnee

I do see one slither of light. Surely if this thing is going to pass through as all in vast numbers, extremely quickly then it will be over quicker too?

Apparently it can re infect really quickly :(

But if its so terrible, why are so many superspreading events being allowed to happen?

@Whatisthisworld

Maybe I’m an easily worried person, but it seemed very strong to me!

He is blunt, honest but is speaking plainly and is fair.

No he's not scaremongering.

Seriously, this shit makes no sense. Do the vaccines provide no immunity whatsoever? Does previous Covid provide no immunity?

Vaccines provide immunity from severe disease and some immunity from catching it in the first place.

Previous Covid infection ? well you know that viruses mutate, so you can have aquired immunity to one mutation and then another comes along and you aren't immune to that one. They are tricky things, viruses, thats why the Flu jab is different each year, you personally might not have needed it, but for all those people who do, it is tweaked to allow the best chance of getting less severe disease from the most likely culprit. Hopefully we will end up in a similar situation with Covid, just not this year.

Exactly chipshopelvis - it's going to be fucking brutal especially for those NHS in the front line who we avidly clapped for way back who pop up from time to time in these threads and share their pain and sheer fatigue - only to be studiously ignored by the I have enough they can stick their rules up their arse mob.

Ginger1982
I think the length of isolation needs to be looked at. In a vaccinated population, is 10 days too long?

Probably now yes.
For symptoms at the start of the pandemic it was 7 days, so maybe it might go back to that

@Parlamente

All this criticism of Dr Nabbarro just because what he is saying is not what people want to hear. He is a leading public health medical doctor with 45 years experience and has no political agenda. Shall we listen to him or some random on Mumsnet who is reflecting on what their neighbour's sister's dog's view is? FFS just wake up and smell the coffee. And, as usual, the UK will suffer more than most because we have a Government of idiots with zero credibility putting their own agenda ahead of public health.

Well said.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10314249/Ive-never-concerned-pandemic-tonight-Covid-19-envoy-warns.html

Votes

'best comment' Utter rubbish

'worst comment' Shame on the anti vaxxers.

@milly74

no, its blatant scaremongering ignore it

It's not scaremongering! He's a super smart guy heading up the response from the WHO. He has said there are some uncertainties. He's not psychic. He's being honest. Try listening to the clever scientists. Instead of dismissing them @milly74

@Parlamente

All this criticism of Dr Nabbarro just because what he is saying is not what people want to hear. He is a leading public health medical doctor with 45 years experience and has no political agenda. Shall we listen to him or some random on Mumsnet who is reflecting on what their neighbour's sister's dog's view is? FFS just wake up and smell the coffee. And, as usual, the UK will suffer more than most because we have a Government of idiots with zero credibility putting their own agenda ahead of public health.

This.

People do not like hearing things they don't like.

People get angry at this.

But he's not making shit up either.

The numbers here are frightening. You should be frightened.

Listen.

@Octavia174 I don’t get it. Surely we develop some antibodies to it?

@PokemonGoGoGo

Currently Omicron cases are doubling every 2 days (it's more like 1.7 but let's go with 2). Today they reported 10,000 omicron cases (some were from yesterday, but let's go with 10,000).

At the same rate of infection, by the end of January, there will be 2.56 million cases of Omicron PER DAY.

That's why they are worried. Even if people are not as seriously ill, how on earth is life going to carry on with so many people affected at once, each isolating for 10 days? And of course some of those cases will be seriously ill and need hospital care. Hospitals will be over run with cases, there will be fewer staff to deal with them, and anyone attending hospital for ANYTHING will be affected.

Sorry, I actually meant by the end of December.

What I suspect will happen is that the numbers will fall next week, purely because people won't want to test and isolate over Christmas. Gov will think their COVID passes are working and won't do anything else. This Christmas will be one helluva super spreading event, and we are all completely fucked in January.

It's already too late to bring in half measures like the ones being started this week. To get this under control would take something massive, and with the money that will roll in to shops and hospitality before Christmas, the government won't act.

The message he is giving is essentially the same as the one both Boris Johnson and Chris Whitty have repeatedly said. To put aside any reports that its more mild and get yourself vaccinated and boostered. Didn't that south African doctor criticise Johnson for creating hysteria with his warnings? Now Nabarro is just backing up the message the govt and the scientists have been giving.

@ChocolateDeficitDisorder I wasn't suggesting it was a good idea. Far from it. What I'm saying is, it may be a situation where either asymptomatic/very mildly ill staff remain at work (ppe'd up to the hilt) instead of thousands being off at once. In which case the very vulnerable/frail/elderly will have no one to care for them at all. Because the staff will all be at home, despite being medically fit to work. As aforementioned, nurses etc have been expected to work with contagious illnesses (ie heavy colds) previously. Plus, because the virus is so contagious many of those in hospital will either a) already have had omicron at some point or b) are in hospital because of it. Many elderly have thankfully already had their boosters which will hopefully offer them good protection. I know what I'm saying may seem controversial, but if so many staff catch omicron are are forced to isolate, then who will actually look after the patients? You're making it out like omicron is an immediate death sentence for the elderly etc if they contract it. Most of the vulnerable who have caught delta have been ok (thanks to the vaccines). What would be "murderous" would be letting people die in their homes with no medical help AT ALL because every damn medic/HCP are off with a scratchy throat. Again, I'm not advocating that covid + staff should work, but there may come a point that there is literally no other option

Monitoring since jan 2020 my arse. I don't recall him saying anything like this back then. Why didn't he warn about COVID then?

It was obvious to epidemiologists what was about to happen as early as January 2020. Nobody wanted to know. Accused them of scaremongering. This paper was published in the Lancet in late January 2020 (and preprints of similar stuff was available before that) www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext. Reading it at the time it was obvious what was going to happen, and plenty of other articles developed the projections quickly over the next few weeks - it was pretty clear what would happen in Europe and when.

[quote Whatisthisworld]@Bebedoogoogle What do you think about the severity though? I thought was meant to be mild[/quote]
It's the spread that's the worrying thing OP. Not the severity.

If people contract it in much higher numbers there will be way more deaths. A small percentage of a bigger number is a much higher number.

So they are worried about the NHS not being able to withstand the pressure.

People will die from other things because hospitals will be full/staff sick.

You are much less likely to be hospitalised if you have had all your jabs. This helps protect the NHS and therefore save the lives of people who need medical attention.

It's not new news. But I can imagine it's pretty frustrating repeating these things to a population with people who say: "it's mild what's all the fuss about" or "don't believe a word those (eminent scientists) people say!"

I would probably be a bit shouty too, if I were him 🤷🏻‍♀️

@Rocket1982

Monitoring since jan 2020 my arse. I don't recall him saying anything like this back then. Why didn't he warn about COVID then?

It was obvious to epidemiologists what was about to happen as early as January 2020. Nobody wanted to know. Accused them of scaremongering. This paper was published in the Lancet in late January 2020 (and preprints of similar stuff was available before that) www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext. Reading it at the time it was obvious what was going to happen, and plenty of other articles developed the projections quickly over the next few weeks - it was pretty clear what would happen in Europe and when.

Not him or WHO though?

Ye

Very well said @Parlamente and totally agree @vera99

[quote FreeBritnee]@Octavia174 I don’t get it. Surely we develop some antibodies to it?[/quote]
Yes we do.

The whole thing about it being 'more mild' is probably down to immunity levels being higher rather than the disease being less severe.

Thats bad news if you aren't fully jabbed.

The big thing with omicron is that it has a much higher rate of reinfection than previous variants - that also applies to vaccinated people. But crucially most of these people should have some immunity because of vaccination.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1471203835175649287
This is John Burn-Murdoch of the financial times on the subject.

He does stats. He's not a medic. The numbers are not good. He is a moderate.

When moderates start saying things that are worrying, you should worry. That is what is happening.

Most people are getting it mild so try not to worry.
Boost your immune system by taking vitamin d, zinc and eating lots of fresh fruit and veg.
Get out for fresh air daily and stop watching the news (read the headlines only if you want to keep up to date) to keep your stress levels down.